Fantasy Baseball 2015: Week 5's Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Advice

What good is a fantasy owner who lacks a sense of timing?

Fantasy baseball—just like the real thing—is a game of skill, luck and timing. That last trait in particular comes in handy in regard to getting value in the trading game.

Knowing which player(s) to trade away and which to deal for—and knowing just the right time to do so—can make all the difference.

After all, it doesn't get much better than making a move to unload a hot flavor-of-the-week type who's about to cool off in exchange for a slumping stud who's ready to take off.

Now, speaking of timing, let's get to some players to sell high and buy low.

Sell High: Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

Morry Gash/Associated Press

2015 Stats: .271 BA, 20 R, 9 HR, 19 RBI, 1 SB (111 PA)

Few players are generating more buzz right now than Joc Pederson, who looks like the leading NL Rookie of the Year so far. You can use that to your advantage if he's on your squad and have needs to fill.

That is to say, don't feel like you have to trade this hot-shot rook on a crazy homer binge—seven in his past 10 games!—who also recently has started batting leadoff for a Los Angeles Dodgers team that is leading the NL in runs. That's an incredibly valuable player. But realize that others now covet your talented but not-entirely-proven commodity.

Pederson, after all, just turned 23 and is striking out like cray-cray at 33.3 percent of the time, which is among the 10 highest rates in baseball. While he did pull off a 30-30 season at Triple-A in 2014, he has gone just 1-for-4 on stolen-base attempts this year, and running in the majors is different from in the minors, both in terms of frequency and success.

Pederson is hitting all these home runs is simultaneously super productive and slightly concerning. Why the latter? Because when the long balls slow, what will Pederson bring to the fantasy table? And how will the lefty hitter fare against same-side pitching? These are questions that we don't yet know the answers to.

If the strikeout rate stays north of 30 percent and the walk rate dips from its current top-five 20.7 percent—a distinct possibility as pitchers adjust to him—then Pederson's average will decline, and he likely won't remain atop the order. That will impact his run and steal totals.

Bottom line: Don't go unloading Pederson expecting him to fall off. Rather, sell him super high and shoot for a top-50 player who is more proven. He'll bring that kind of return right now.

Buy Low: Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

2015 Stats: .216 BA, 13 R, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 0 SB (122 PA)

If you're wondering whether or not to go get Edwin Encarnacion, who is off to a why-was-he-drafted-in-the-first-round-again kind of start, you really shouldn't be wondering—you should be offering.

Remember: The 32-year-old slugger was horrible early on in 2014, too. Through 32 games as of last May 5—or almost exactly a year ago—Encarnacion was hitting .228 with two homers and 17 RBI. Look familiar?

Well, just when everyone started to get really concerned, here's what Encarnacion did during the rest of his ridiculous May: .316 average, 16 home runs and 31 RBI over 25 games. Don't expect that again, of course, but consider this your friendly reminder that stud first-round talents can, on occasion, look lost; but ultimately, they provide something close to what was expected.

If there's anything that might raise an eyebrow here, it's that EE's normally superb walk rate, typically north of 10 percent, has fallen to below 7 percent. He's also swinging a bit more (45.5 percent) but making less contact overall (76.7 percent) and missing more (10.1 swinging strike percentage), according to his plate discipline data. That's something to monitor but not fret over yet.

Regardless, Edwin and his parrot are going to go on plenty of slow jogs around the bases as soon as he starts hitting the ball in the air at a rate he's accustomed to (34.8 percent in 2015 versus 45.0 percent career).

Sell High: Jake Marisnick, OF, Houston Astros

LM Otero/Associated Press

2015 Stats: .338 BA, 14 R, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 9 SB (88 PA)

It's hard to argue that Jake Marisnick hasn't been a genuine didn't-see-that-coming fantasy boon through the first month and a week.

The 24-year-old former top prospect is hitting for a high average, and has actually hit all three of his home runs in games in which he also has stolen at least one of his nine bases, too. That's pretty neat.

But a lot of what Marisnick is doing appears unsustainable at his current pace. While he isn't striking out nearly as much as he has in the past—15.9 percent this year compared to 28.1 percent prior—Marisnick still doesn't work many walks (just five). And his .375 BABIP is going to come down, and bring his average with it.

Of the five traditional fantasy categories, the only one in which Marisnick has the tools to be a definite plus in is stolen bases. If you don't need those—or if you'd rather not wait for his average to tumble into the .200s—then go ahead and make Marisnick available.

Folks are still swept up in the Houston Astros' surprisingly hot start, and Marisnick has been a big part of that, so he should be an easy player to peddle.

Buy Low: Corey Kluber, SP, Cleveland Indians

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

2015 Stats: 0 W, 5.04 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 46 K, 0 SV (44.2 IP)

It's official: The Klubot is malfunctioning. Fresh off a Cy Young-winning 2014, Corey Kluber has owners everywhere thinking that was just a fluke.

The 29-year-old left Thursday's outing against the Kansas City Royals with an ERA north of 5.00 and a WHIP just shy of 1.40 after he allowed five runs on seven hits in 5.2 frames. Kluber, who won 18 games a year ago, is also now 0-5 and matched the MLB record with a seventh straight start sans a victory for the previous season's Cy Young winner. System failure?

Negative. This bot isn't in need of a total reboot, it just requires a little maintenance. Kluber's FIP sits at a much nicer 3.18, and he owns a 9.3 K/9 against a 2.2 BB/9—numbers that aren't all that far off from last season (10.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9). What's more, Kluber is allowing a BABIP of .364, which will come down, and there are no worries about his velocity, which is right where it was in 2014.

If you're unsure here, don't be—or you'll miss out on all the good stuff that's still to come from Kluber, who had a 4.14 ERA and 1.51 WHIP at the end of April 2014. He wound up doing pretty well thereafter, right?

Sell High: Stephen Vogt, C/1B, Oakland Athletics

Jim Mone/Associated Press

2015 Stats: .345 BA, 16 R, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 0 SB (100 PA)

Despite not even being eligible at catcher at the very beginning of the season, Stephen Vogt now is the top fantasy performer at the position so far, going by ESPN Fantasy Baseball's Player Rater.

That's a difficult kind of player to hand over via swap, especially at the always-too-shallow backstop spot, where having a good one puts you a leg up on the rest of your leaguemates.

But in Vogt's case, you might be better off proceeding cautiously and acting pre-emptively here. For one thing, this isn't exactly a young up-and-comer. Vogt is 30, which is getting up there for a professional baseball player. For another, he has a 25.9 HR/FB rate that is well out of character for someone whose career mark is 10.0.

And for a third thing, Vogt has never played more than half a season in the majors, so it's fair to wonder not only how well he'll hold up all year long, but also how he'll adjust once pitchers start to figure him out.

In other words, see what you can get for him, especially at a time when just about every other owner is seeking some sort of quality catcher with the likes of Jonathan Lucroy, Yan Gomes and Travis d'Arnaud out and Devin Mesoraco ailing.

Statistics are accurate through Thursday, May 7, and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.

Need more fantasy baseball help? Come pepper me with your questions on Twitter today at 11 a.m. ET @JayCat11.