Fantasy Baseball 2015: Week 2's Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Advice
What good is a fantasy owner who lacks a sense of timing?
Fantasy baseball—just like the real thing—is a game of skill, luck and timing. That last trait in particular comes in handy in regard to getting value in the trading game.
Knowing which player(s) to trade away and which to deal for—and knowing just the right time to do so—can make all the difference.
After all, it doesn't get much better than making a move to unload a hot flavor-of-the-week type who's about to cool off in exchange for a slumping stud who's ready to take off.
Now, speaking of timing, let's get to some players to sell high and buy low.
Buy Low: Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals
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2015 Stats: .211 BA, 4 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB (41 PA)
At the moment, Ian Desmond is making headlines for all the wrong reasons, including a poor start on offense and a downright dreadful one on defense. To wit, the 29-year-old has made a ridiculous six errors in his first 10 games, two more than any other player.
If you think Desmond is frustrated—and he is, telling The Washington Post's Barry Svrluga, "It sucks. I don’t know what to do."—then just imagine how his fantasy owners feel. Defensive miscues don't count in most leagues, but that doesn't make it any easier for an owner to keep seeing his starting shortstop's name pop up with negative pub.
While anyone with Desmond in their lineup isn't going to just give the third-round pick away, his price absolutely is reduced right now, so it can't hurt to toss out a just-enticing-enough, let-me-take-him-off-your-hands proposal.
Remember, Desmond still has several things going for him. One, he's in his prime at 29 years old. Two, he's the only player in baseball coming off three straight 20-20 campaigns (as a shortstop, no less). Three, the Washington Nationals lineup has been missing Denard Span and Anthony Rendon all year and Jayson Werth until recently. And four, for what it's worth, Desmond is also a free-agent-to-be playing for a big payday.
A streaky player who is all-around ice cold at present, Desmond will get hot soon enough, and when he does, it'll be too late to acquire him. Try for it now.
Sell High: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2015 Stats: .528 BA, 10 R, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB (42 PA)
Let's clarify one thing about this column: Just because a player is suggested as a sell-high candidate doesn't mean you have to or even should unload him via trade. Rather, it's often merely a possibility for your consideration.
That's the case here with Adrian Gonzalez. If you own the Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman, who became the first player ever to hit five home runs in his club's first three games, you're smiling even as you log onto your league's site to check the standings.
But realize that you likely have gotten the best stretch of Gonzalez in 2015 already. The guy has an insane .500 BABIP—which actually is below his average, because homers aren't part of the calculation—and his crazy-high 33.3 HR/FB rate is more than double his 15.5 career mark.
Gonzalez is and has been a great and very steady fantasy performer for years, and he did (almost silently) lead baseball with 116 RBI in 2014. But he'll be 33 in early May and averaged a little more than 22 long balls from 2012-14.
Because he's Hansel and everyone knows it, you might be able to get just about anyone for Gonzalez. You never know until you try.
Buy Low: Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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2015 Stats: 0 W, 5.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 18 K (18.0 IP)
A lot of Cole Hamels owners are probably wishing they could do what Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. seems incapable of doing—trade the left-hander.
The 31-year-old has been at the center of trade speculation for months, and yet he remains part of a rebuilding team that has scored just five runs in his first three turns of 2015—and just two while Hamels has been in the game, both of which came in Thursday's loss.
Here's another hard-to-believe nugget about Hamels: He has given up 12 hits in his 18 innings, and seven of 'em have left the yard. That's not only unlucky, it's borderline unfair.
Remember, Hamels has been a notoriously slow starter, as his career ERA and WHIP across March/April are easily the worst of any month. Just don't remind the person you're trying to lowball to land Hamels, who should pick it up, especially if he does wind up getting traded to a better situation, which will only improve his fantasy value.
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Sell High: Joakim Soria, RP, Detroit Tigers
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2015 Stats: 0 W, 1.93 ERA, 0.43 WHIP, 4 K, 4 SV (4.2 IP)
Joakim Soria remains one of the best and yet somehow underrated relief pitchers in baseball. So why look to move him? Because the Detroit Tigers seem intent to keep the "interim" tag on Soria's current closer title, indicating that Joe Nathan, MLB's active saves leader, is likely to regain the role once healthy.
"That's the plan," manager Brad Ausmus said, according to Chris Iott of MLive.com. "We'll see what happens, but that's the plan."
That may be a bad plan, particularly given Nathan's age (40), injury (elbow flexor strain), awful 2014 and shaky spring. But if Nathan does get the gig back even if Soria is throwing well, then the latter's fantasy value is going to plummet until his next opportunity to contribute to the saves category.
Because Soria wasn't the ninth-inning man at the outset, chances are you already had another closer or two (or more) on your roster by the time you drafted Soria on spec, or perhaps even grabbed him off the waiver wire. In that case, you probably don't need the saves Soria is getting—you weren't planning on them in the first place, right?—so why not let this messy sitch be someone else's problem?
But work fast, while Nathan remains out and Soria is still closing.
Buy Low: Hunter Pence, OF, San Francisco Giants
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2015 Stats: N/A
One of the tried-and-true buy-low strategies, especially early in the year when everything is being sorted out, is to target a player who is on the shelf, and has been for some time, but who also is on the way back.
Hence, Hunter Pence. The San Francisco Giants outfielder, who just so happened to have played all 162 games in both 2013 and 2014, fractured his forearm when he was hit by a pitch in only his second spring training game.
The injury has left Pence, who just turned 32, with a six-to-eight week timetable to return. While that killed his draft-day stock because it happened back on March 5, that also means he's getting ever closer to coming back.
Pence's return is still a ways off—he just started swinging a Whiffle ball bat and taking light hacks with a fungo, per Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area—and it's possible it could stretch into early May, should he require the full eight weeks or so.
If the owner who took a shot on Pence at a discounted price in the middle rounds is floundering through the first couple of weeks and looking for an active body, then there's a definite buying opportunity to be had.
Sell High: Archie Bradley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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2015 Stats: 1 W, 1.42 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 10 K (12.2 IP)
A blown save Thursday night by Addison Reed is all that stood between rookie Archie Bradley accomplishing something incredible by beating the reigning NL Cy Young/MVP (Clayton Kershaw) and World Series MVP (Madison Bumgarner) in his very first two big league starts.
After holding the Los Angeles Dodgers to one hit over six shutout innings in his impressive debut, the 22-year-old Bradley was only slightly worse against the San Francisco Giants. In fact, he has given up only one run while actually on the mound; the second earned run charged to him Thursday came when Oliver Perez allowed one of Bradley's inherited runners to score by surrendering a two-run homer.
Coming off those two dandy efforts and a strong spring that somewhat surprisingly earned him a rotation spot—and add in his top-prospect status for good measure—Bradley is going to be generating a lot of buzz. The former No. 7 overall draft pick does have plenty of talent and stuff, and could be a No. 2-caliber fantasy starter—eventually.
But for now, use the hype to your advantage and peddle Bradley, who the Arizona Diamondbacks will handle conservatively, and who is bound to have his downs to go with these ups.
Buy Low: Chris Carter, UTIL, Houston Astros
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2015 Stats: .067 BA, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB (32 PA)
Everyone knew the risks involved with owning Chris Carter. The man runs hot and cold, and he's forever going to be a batting-average anchor.
But his .067 mark—that's 2-for-30, if you want the raw math—is taking things to a new low level. Like, second-worst-in-baseball level. And anyone who still owns Carter right now is thinking about, well, not owning him anymore.
In other words, the 28-year-old should be obtainable for a song, or really, even just a bridge or a chorus. And considering how much power Carter possesses—remember, he smashed 37 homers to finish behind only Nelson Cruz a year ago—he's still worth rostering for when he does start making contact and hittin' 'em out.
Oh, and as a bonus, Carter, who entered the season eligible to be inserted into lineups at only the utility spot, has been playing first base, where he will be eligible soon enough, if he isn't already.
Sell High: Jose Iglesias, SS, Detroit Tigers
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2015 Stats: .481 BA, 5 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 4 SB (31 PA)
Still only 25 years old, Jose Iglesias shouldn't be too hard to sell, particularly in deeper formats.
For one, he's a shortstop, and people are always seeking help at such a shallow position. Point that out.
For another, he's hitting .481 so far and is part of the Detroit Tigers' damage-doing lineup. Point that out, too.
And for yet another, he has stolen four bases already, more than all but Billy Hamilton (seven) and Dee Gordon (six). Point that out three.
What you won't point out, of course, is that Iglesias owns an elevated .500 BABIP that also is higher than all but two players.
Nor will you point out that the former member of Cuba's Serie Nacional doesn't have any history of hitting for power, with just 10 home runs in parts of six seasons as a pro in the United States.
And don't even think about pointing out that he also has little history of running all that much, with only 52 steals in those same six seasons.
Do the above, and it shouldn't be too hard to sell Iglesias.
Statistics are accurate through Thursday, April 16, and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11
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