Predicting the 2015 MLB Stat Leaders in Every Major Category
With the 2015 MLB season finally set to get underway next week, now is the time to predict who will lead each league in some notable statistical categories.
This is obviously a shot in the dark, and there are always at least a few surprises that emerge over the course of the season.
Last year's NL batting title race is the perfect example. It's fair to guess there was no one out there who predicted Justin Morneau to win it over Josh Harrison in the final days of the season.
At any rate, it's still fun to make an educated guess as to who could pace his respective league in some notable categories, and that's exactly what we've done here.
In fact, the following goes one step further, with predictions for the top five finishers in each league for the following categories:
- Batting Average
- Hits
- Home Runs
- RBI
- Runs
- Stolen Bases
- Wins
- ERA
- Strikeouts
- Saves
Also included is one player to "keep an eye on" in that respective category, highlighting a player that finished well off the leaderboard last season, but could make a surprise push this coming season.
Batting Average
1 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Robinson Cano, SEA | .314 | .329 |
| 2. Adrian Beltre, TEX | .324 | .319 |
| 3. Joe Mauer, MIN | .277 | .316 |
| 4. Victor Martinez, DET | .335 | .314 |
| 5. Michael Brantley, CLE | .327 | .311 |
Keep an Eye On: Adam Eaton, CWS (.300 in 2014)
AL Leader
Robinson Cano has never won a batting title, but he has hit over .300 in six straight seasons and a total of eight times in his 10-year career. With better protection in the form of newly signed slugger Nelson Cruz, this will be the year he finally does it.
His power numbers were down last season, but he still hit .314/.382/.454, and with the Mariners pushing for a playoff spot, he could be in for a huge year.
"They did their job getting the right pieces," Cano told Brent Stecker of 710 ESPN Seattle. "Now it's our job to go out there and show them that they're doing their job and we want to win and we're gonna go out and compete every single game."
Joe Mauer probably comes across as a surprise here after hitting .277 last year, but he was a .323 career hitter heading into last season. A healthy campaign in an underrated Twins' lineup could mean a nice bounce-back to his previous level of production.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Nolan Arenado, COL | .287 | .322 |
| 2. Andrew McCutchen, PIT | .314 | .320 |
| 3. Buster Posey, SF | .311 | .317 |
| 4. Anthony Rendon, WAS | .287 | .312 |
| 5. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI | .300 | .311 |
Keep an Eye On: Starling Marte, PIT (.291 in 2014)
NL Leader
Nolan Arenado was on his way to a breakout season in 2014 before a fractured finger cost him 37 games. He was hitting .302/.330/.484 through 192 at-bats when he hit the disabled list, and he has plenty of room to improve entering his age-23 season.
This will be the year he fully breaks out, and the result will be a surprise run to the NL batting title.
Hits
2 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Jose Altuve, HOU | 225 | 197 |
| 2. Robinson Cano, SEA | 187 | 194 |
| 3. Dustin Pedroia, BOS | 153 | 185 |
| 4. Jose Reyes, TOR | 175 | 183 |
| 5. Adrian Beltre, TEX | 178 | 178 |
Keep an Eye On: Kole Calhoun, LAA (134 in 2014)
AL Leader
Jose Altuve set a Houston Astros franchise record last season with 225 hits, which was 25 more than anyone else in the league. His speed and contact skills obviously played a big part, but so too did a .360 BABIP (via FanGraphs).
Playing everyday and hitting out of the leadoff spot in the lineup, Altuve should again see 600-plus at-bats as long as he stays healthy. That means even with some regression in the BABIP department, he should again have a good chance of leading the AL in knocks.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Andrew McCutchen, PIT | 172 | 191 |
| 2. Anthony Rendon, WAS | 176 | 186 |
| 3. Christian Yelich, MIA | 165 | 182 |
| 4. Matt Carpenter, STL | 162 | 178 |
| 5. Starlin Castro, CHC | 154 | 177 |
Keep an Eye On: Juan Lagares (117 in 2014)
NL Leader
My pick to win the batting title, Andrew McCutchen, would be a good candidate to lead the league in hits if he pulls that off, considering he's slotted in the No. 3 spot in the Pittsburgh Pirates' lineup.
McCutchen led the NL in hits back in 2012 with 194, and topping 190 may be enough to pace the circuit again in 2015. The speedy duo of Denard Span and Ben Revere led the league with 184 hits last season.
Home Runs
3 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Edwin Encarnacion, TOR | 34 | 39 |
| 2. Mike Trout, LAA | 36 | 36 |
| 3. Jose Abreu, CWS | 36 | 34 |
| 4. Miguel Cabrera, DET | 25 | 33 |
| 5. Chris Davis, BAL | 26 | 31 |
Keep an Eye On: George Springer, HOU (20 in 2014)
AL Leader
Despite missing 33 games to a strained quad last season, Edwin Encarnacion still launched 34 home runs in 477 at-bats, good for seventh in the American League.
Newcomer Josh Donaldson will be the best protection Encarnacion has ever had during his time in the Blue Jays' lineup, and the Blue Jays lineup as a whole looks like it could be one of the best in baseball. All of that could add up to a home run title for the 32-year-old.
"There are big questions to be answered in Toronto, but you'd be hard-pressed to find (on paper, at least) a lineup with a better top five," wrote Anthony Castrovince of Sports on Earth.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Giancarlo Stanton, MIA | 37 | 41 |
| 2. Anthony Rizzo, CHC | 32 | 37 |
| 3. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI | 19 | 32 |
| 4. Yasiel Puig, LAD | 16 | 31 |
| 5. Andrew McCutchen, PIT | 25 | 30 |
Keep an Eye On: Jorge Soler (5 in 2014)
NL Leader
Were it not for a gruesome fastball to the face that cost him the final 17 games of the 2014 season, Giancarlo Stanton would have had a good chance of eclipsing the 40-homer mark for the first time last season.
As it was, he still managed to lead the league with 37 long balls, and it's only a matter of time before the mammoth slugger reaches 40 and beyond. An improved lineup around him should help, and a home run title would likely put him in the NL MVP conversation once again for a contending Miami Marlins team.
.png?w=256)
Runs Batted in
4 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Mike Trout, LAA | 111 | 126 |
| 2. Miguel Cabrera, DET | 109 | 122 |
| 3. Jose Abreu, CWS | 107 | 114 |
| 4t. Robinson Cano, SEA | 82 | 111 |
| 4t. Edwin Encarnacion, TOR | 98 | 111 |
Keep an Eye On: Eric Hosmer, KC (58 in 2014)
AL Leader
Mike Trout was counted on as more of a run producer for the Los Angeles Angels last season, and the result was an AL-best 111 RBI for what was the highest-scoring offense in baseball.
The Angels will again boast one of the better lineups in the league, and that should mean plenty of RBI opportunities for Trout out of the No. 2 spot in the order. As the 23 year old continues to develop into more of a power threat, he'll be a perennial candidate to lead this category.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Giancarlo Stanton, MIA | 105 | 119 |
| 2. Adrian Gonzalez, LAD | 116 | 115 |
| 3. Matt Holliday, STL | 90 | 111 |
| 4. Anthony Rizzo, CHC | 78 | 108 |
| 5. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI | 69 | 105 |
Keep an Eye On: Ryan Braun (81 in 2014)
NL Leader
With speedy newcomer Dee Gordon and budding star Christian Yelich penciled in ahead of him in the lineup, Giancarlo Stanton should have plenty of RBI chances in the season to come.
The 25-year-old finished second to Adrian Gonzalez (116) in that category last season, and with the Miami Marlins eyeing a postseason spot and Stanton just coming into his own as a superstar, he should be able to improve on that total in 2015.
Runs Scored
5 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Mike Trout, LAA | 115 | 118 |
| 2. Jose Reyes, TOR | 94 | 107 |
| 3. Dustin Pedroia, BOS | 72 | 106 |
| 4t. Miguel Cabrera, DET | 101 | 103 |
| 4t. Robinson Cano, SEA | 77 | 103 |
Keep an Eye On: Anthony Gose, DET (31 in 2014)
AL Leader
Mike Trout has led the AL in runs scored each of the past three seasons with totals of 129, 109 and 115. There's no reason to think he won't make it four straight, given his on-base skills and the offense around him.
That said, the health of Albert Pujols will play a significant role here, and if he misses time, look for Toronto Blue Jays table-setter Jose Reyes to come away as the leader here.
With Cano predicted to win the batting title, and with an improved lineup behind him including slugger Nelson Cruz, expect a big jump in his runs scored.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Matt Carpenter, STL | 99 | 111 |
| 2. Andrew McCutchen, PIT | 89 | 109 |
| 3. Anthony Rendon, WAS | 111 | 106 |
| 4. Carlos Gomez, MIL | 95 | 102 |
| 5. Christian Yelich, MIA | 94 | 101 |
Keep an Eye On: Dexter Fowler, CHC (61 in 2014)
NL Leader
Matt Carpenter led the NL with 126 runs scored during his breakout 2013 season, and while he took a small step back this past season, he still managed to score 99 runs.
Considering the St. Louis Cardinals offense was a mess for much of the first half, and with newcomer Jason Heyward slotted behind him, Carpenter looks like a good bet to again eclipse the 100-runs mark. It's the play of guys like Matt Holliday, Matt Adams and Jhonny Peralta that will inevitably determine if he leads the NL in that category.
Stolen Bases
6 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Jose Altuve, HOU | 56 | 47 |
| 2. Jarrod Dyson, KC | 36 | 42 |
| 3. Jordan Schafer, MIN | 15 | 39 |
| 4. Leonys Martin, TEX | 31 | 36 |
| 5. Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY | 39 | 32 |
Keep an Eye On: Anthony Gose, DET (15 in 2014)
AL Leader
After stealing 33 bases in 2012 and 35 in 2013, Jose Altuve exploded for 56 steals in 65 attempts last season. That was tops in the American League by a significant margin, as Jacoby Ellsbury ranked second with 39 thefts.
A lot of that had to do with opportunity, as Altuve ranked second in the league with 266 times on base, but even with some regression in the batting-average department, Altuve should still see plenty of chances to swipe second and defend his title.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Billy Hamilton, CIN | 56 | 68 |
| 2. Dee Gordon, MIA | 64 | 55 |
| 3. Ben Revere, PHI | 49 | 41 |
| 4. Starling Marte, PIT | 30 | 35 |
| 5. Carlos Gomez, MIL | 34 | 33 |
Keep an Eye On: Angel Pagan, SF (16 in 2014)
NL Leader
Billy Hamilton made a name for himself stealing bases during his time in the minors, swiping 333 over his final three seasons on the farm, including a record 155 in 2012.
His speed was on full display as a rookie last season, as his 56 stolen bases ranked second in the NL. However, he was also caught a league-high 23 times, and his 70.9 percent success rate ranked 37th among the 39 players with at least 20 steals.
The 24-year-old was 395-of-479 (82.5 percent) during his time in the minors, so there's reason to think his success rate will improve as he becomes more comfortable at the big league level.
Wins
7 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Felix Hernandez, SEA | 15 | 19 |
| 2. David Price, DET | 15 | 18 |
| 3t. Jered Weaver, LAA | 18 | 17 |
| 3t. Corey Kluber, CLE | 18 | 17 |
| 3t. Sonny Gray, OAK | 14 | 17 |
Keep an Eye On: Carlos Carrasco, CLE (8 in 2014)
AL Leader
Despite his 3.07 career ERA, Felix Hernandez carries a career win-loss record of 125-92 into the 2015 season, and he's only topped the 15-win mark twice over the course of his terrific 10-year career.
Long the stud pitcher on a struggling Seattle Mariners team, King Felix is now set to front a team that enters the season among the favorites in the American League. That should mean plenty of wins for one of the game's elite starters, and tying his career high of 19 could be enough to lead the league.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Max Scherzer, WAS | 18 | 22 |
| 2. Clayton Kershaw, LAD | 21 | 20 |
| 3. Madison Bumgarner, SF | 18 | 19 |
| 4t. Adam Wainwright, STL | 20 | 18 |
| 4t. Zack Greinke, LAD | 17 | 18 |
Keep an Eye On: Michael Wacha, STL (5 in 2014)
NL Leader
Max Scherzer has led the AL in wins each of the past two seasons, tallying 21 on his way to Cy Young honors in 2013 and following that up with 18 this past year while helping the Detroit Tigers to a fourth straight division title.
Now the right-hander takes his talents to the Washington Nationals, who enter the season as prohibitive favorites in the NL and with a legitimate shot at 100-plus wins if they reach their full potential. That should mean plenty of wins for their new ace, and we'll say he eclipses his previous career-high and puts up 22.
Earned Run Average
8 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Chris Sale, CWS | 2.17 | 2.34 |
| 2. Felix Hernandez, SEA | 2.14 | 2.39 |
| 3. David Price, DET | 3.26 | 2.61 |
| 4. Sonny Gray, OAK | 3.08 | 2.76 |
| 5. Corey Kluber, CLE | 2.44 | 2.82 |
Keep an Eye On: Drew Hutchison, TOR (4.48 in 2014)
AL Leader
Chris Sale was just barely edged out by Felix Hernandez for the AL ERA title last season, as he trimmed nearly a run off of the 3.07 mark he posted during the 2013 season.
The left-hander will begin the season on the disabled list as he continues to recover from a foot injury, but he's expected back shortly after the season begins. Expect the 26 year old to be squarely in this conversation for the foreseeable future.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Clayton Kershaw, LAD | 1.77 | 1.92 |
| 2. Stephen Strasburg, WAS | 3.14 | 2.53 |
| 3. Madison Bumgarner, SF | 2.98 | 2.69 |
| 4. Johnny Cueto, CIN | 2.25 | 2.71 |
| 5. Jon Lester, CHC | 2.46 | 2.75 |
Keep an Eye On: James Shields, SD (3.21 in 2014)
NL Leader
Clayton Kershaw has won four straight NL ERA titles, and nothing about his utterly dominant 2014 performance says that anyone but him will lead the league in that category again in 2015.
The better question is whether or not he can keep his ERA under 2.00 for the third year in a row, something no qualified pitcher has done since Pete Alexander pulled it off from 1915-17 (I've read that five times and it doesn't get any less ridiculous).
The last pitcher to do it in back-to-back seasons before Kershaw was Greg Maddux, who accomplished the feat in 1994 (1.56) and 1995 (1.63).
Strikeouts
9 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. David Price, DET | 271 | 264 |
| 2. Felix Hernandez, SEA | 248 | 252 |
| 3. Corey Kluber, CLE | 269 | 249 |
| 4. Chris Sale, CWS | 208 | 217 |
| 5. Drew Hutchison, TOR | 184 | 209 |
Keep an Eye On: Justin Masterson, BOS (116 in 2014)
AL Leader
David Price paced the AL in both innings pitched (248.1) and strikeouts (271) last year, and there's a good chance he does it again while stepping into the role of staff ace and rotation anchor for the Detroit Tigers.
The 29 year old is pitching for a huge contract in free agency next winter, so he'll be plenty motivated to put up some of the best numbers of his impressive career. If the Detroit Tigers are going to move past the loss of Max Scherzer, they'll need him in top form.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Clayton Kershaw, LAD | 239 | 267 |
| 2. Stephen Strasburg, WAS | 242 | 252 |
| 3. Johnny Cueto, CIN | 242 | 236 |
| 4. Madison Bumgarner, SF | 219 | 225 |
| 5. Jon Lester, CHC | 220 | 221 |
Keep an Eye On: Carlos Martinez, STL (84 in 2014)
NL Leader
A back injury cost Clayton Kershaw a month last season and limited him to 198.1 innings, but he still managed to strike out 239 batters, good for third in the NL and a career-best 10.8 K/9.
If he can keep up that rate or something close to it over a full season's worth of innings, he'll blow past his career high of 248 strikeouts set back in 2011. There is no shortage of elite strikeout pitchers in the National League, but the smart money has to be on Kershaw.
Saves
10 of 10
AL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Fernando Rodney, SEA | 48 | 47 |
| 2. Huston Street, LAA | 41 | 44 |
| 3. Cody Allen, CLE | 24 | 41 |
| 4t. Greg Holland, KC | 46 | 40 |
| 4t. David Robertson, CWS | 39 | 40 |
Keep an Eye On: Chad Qualls, HOU (19 in 2014)
AL Leader
The Seattle Mariners waited until Feb. 13 to sign Fernando Rodney last offseason, and the two-year, $14 million deal they gave him wound up being one of the better bargains of the year.
The 38-year-old converted 48 of 51 save chances and posted solid peripheral numbers anchoring what was the best bullpen in baseball. With the Mariners expected to contend in the AL West, there'll be ample save opportunities for Rodney once again in 2015.
NL Predicted Top 5
| 1. Mark Melancon, PIT | 33 | 45 |
| 2. Trevor Rosenthal, STL | 45 | 44 |
| 3. Steve Cishek, MIA | 39 | 41 |
| 4. Joaquin Benoit, SD | 11 | 40 |
| 5. Craig Kimbrel, ATL | 47 | 38 |
Keep an Eye On: Jenrry Mejia, NYM (28 in 2014)
NL Leader
Craig Kimbrel has led the NL in saves each of the past four seasons, but save chances could be at a minimum in Atlanta this year with the team not expected to contend.
Instead, we'll go outside the box a bit here and predict Pittsburgh Pirates stopper Mark Melancon walks away as the NL saves leader in 2015.
The 30-year-old took over for an injured Jason Grilli on April 21 last season, and he went 33-of-37 on save chances with a 1.92 ERA, 0.934 WHIP and 9.4 K/9 the rest of the way.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
.png?w=480)
