Playing Over/Under on MLB Stars' 2015 Performance
As we get set to kick off the MLB season, now is as good a time as any to play some over/under on what to expect statistically from some of the game's biggest stars in 2015.
Over/under 40 home runs for Giancarlo Stanton?
Over/under 20 wins for Madison Bumgarner?
Answers to these kinds of questions in March are really shots in the dark, but they're fun to predict nonetheless. So here are 20 of the game's most talked about stars and an over/under prediction in one key statistical area for each of them for the upcoming season.
Jose Abreu: 40 Home Runs
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2014 Home Runs: 36
Overview
Jose Abreu signed a six-year, $68 million contract with the Chicago White Sox last offseason and immediately emerged as one of the game's most dangerous power hitters.
The 28-year-old finished the season with an AL-best .581 slugging percentage and launched 36 home runs on his way to AL Rookie of the Year honors and a fourth-place finish in MVP voting.
Over/Under: Under
His 26.9 percent home run-to-fly-ball rate last year was the highest mark in all of baseball, per FanGraphs, but even if it levels off at closer to 20 percent, Abreu should again be able to top the 30-homer mark.
It's also worth noting that he led all of baseball in "just enoughs" last season with 14. Those are home runs that cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet or landed less than one fence height beyond the fence, per ESPN's Home Run Tracker.
Abreu should be a force in the middle of the White Sox lineup, but 40 home runs look like a stretch.
Jose Altuve: 220 Hits
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2014 Hits: 225
Overview
Jose Altuve turned in one of the most complete offensive seasons in recent memory for the Houston Astros last season.
The speedy second baseman hit .341/.377/.453 with 56 stolen bases and a franchise-record 225 hits, checking in with a 6.0 WAR and winning Silver Slugger honors.
Over/Under: Under
Even with his wheels, it's hard to see Altuve replicating the .360 BABIP, as relayed by FanGraphs, that he posted last season.
Something closer to 200 hits and a .300 batting average might be the high end as far as what to expect from the 24-year-old in 2015.
Jose Bautista: .950 OPS
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2014 OPS: .928
Overview
Finally healthy after missing significant time in 2012 and 2013, Jose Bautista posted a .928 OPS with 35 home runs and 103 RBI last season.
Twice in his career the slugger has had an OPS over .950, and that mark seems to be within reach in 2015. He had a .995 mark during his breakout 2010 season and improved on that with an AL-best 1.056 OPS in 2011.
Over/Under: Over
As good as Bautista was last season, he should be even better this year with the additions of Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson to the Toronto lineup.
Perhaps even more important will be a healthy Edwin Encarnacion, who missed 33 games with a quad strain.
Upon returning in the middle of August, he had a .773 OPS and just eight home runs over his final 40 games, and getting him back to full strength in the cleanup spot behind Bautista will be key for Toronto.
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Kris Bryant: 25 Home Runs
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2014 Home Runs: 43 (in minors)
Overview
Kris Bryant enters the 2015 season as the No. 1 prospect in the league, according to Baseball America, and deservedly so after he hit .325/.438/.661 with 43 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A last season.
He's done nothing but hit since Chicago took him No. 2 overall in the 2013 draft, and the 23-year-old is expected to be a big part of the Cubs' attack in 2015.
Over/Under: Over
Chances are Bryant will start the season in Triple-A in order to buy the team another year of control, but expect him to get the call within a couple of weeks of Opening Day.
There is still some swing-and-miss to his game, and there could be some growing pains. But his 80-grade power is for real, and a 30-homer season is not out of the question.
Madison Bumgarner: 18 Wins
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2014 Wins: 18
Overview
Before shining in the playoffs last season, Madison Bumgarner also had a rock-solid regular season as the clear-cut ace of the San Francisco Giants rotation.
The 25-year-old went 18-10 with a 2.98 ERA, 1.090 WHIP and 219 strikeouts in 217.1 innings, setting new career highs in wins, strikeouts and innings pitched to finish fourth in NL Cy Young voting.
This one is largely a question of whether the Giants can again be a playoff-caliber team, but even if they wind up around .500, Bumgarner could still walk away as a 20-game winner.
Over/Under: Over
He's still so young, there's no reason to think he won't continue to improve. The big question is whether the 270 innings he threw last season will have any effect on him in 2015.
Grant Brisbee of SB Nation falls on the side of those not putting too much stock into the workload concerns, writing:
"Good, healthy pitchers are likelier to last an entire season/postseason and they're more likely to be healthy the next season because if they weren't, they probably wouldn't have lasted as long in the previous season. It's almost a tautology.
"
Agreed. He'll be a 20-game winner for the first time in 2015.
Miguel Cabrera: 80 Extra-Base Hits
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2014 Extra-Base Hits: 78
Overview
Despite his home run total dropping from 44 to 25, Miguel Cabrera actually had more extra-base hits in 2014 than he did the previous season (78 to 71).
The slugger finished with an AL-best 52 doubles and one triple to go along with the 25 long balls, as those 78 extra-base hits marked the second-highest total of his 12-year career. He tallied 84 during the 2010 and 2012 seasons.
Over/Under: Over
Cabrera dealt with a nagging ankle injury for much of 2014, finally undergoing surgery once the season wrapped up to remove bone spurs and repair a stress fracture.
Back to full health and with the addition of Yoenis Cespedes to the middle of the lineup, Cabrera putting up another 40-double, 40-homer season and the third 80-plus-extra-base-hit performance of his career seems like a very real possibility.
Robinson Cano: .500 Slugging Percentage
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2014 SLG: .454
Overview
Expectations were sky high for Robinson Cano last season after he joined the Seattle Mariners on a huge 10-year, $240 million deal.
By most accounts, it was another terrific season for the superstar second baseman, as he hit .314 with a .382 on-base percentage and finished fifth in AL MVP voting for the second consecutive season.
All of that was good for a 6.4 WAR, and his impact on the Mariners offense was undeniable. However, he finished with just 14 home runs and a .454 slugging percentage, the first time since 2008 it had dropped below .500.
Over/Under: Over
It would be easy to blame the move from Yankee Stadium to spacious Safeco Field for the power outage, but Cano actually hit nine of his 14 home runs at home last season.
Instead, he went through an overall drop in his fly-ball rate (29.8 percent to 24.7 percent) and subsequent decline in his HR/FB ratio (17.3 percent to 10.7 percent), according to FanGraphs.
With Nelson Cruz now slotted behind him in the Mariners lineup, Cano should see more pitches to drive this season and should again be a .300/.380/.500 hitter in 2015.
Paul Goldschmidt: 45 Doubles
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2014 Doubles: 39
Overview
Despite all the attention given to his 36-homer campaign in 2013, Paul Goldschmidt has been a doubles machine since taking over as an everyday player in 2012.
The 27-year-old had 43 doubles in 2012 and 36 in 2013, and he was well on his way to a career high last year with 39 through 109 games, before a fractured hand ended his season on Aug. 2.
Over/Under: Over
Even with the time he missed, Goldschmidt's 39 doubles were good for fourth in the National League last season.
With all the games he plays in the pitcher's parks of the NL West, as long as he stays healthy, Goldschmidt should be a perennial threat to reach the 50-double mark.
Billy Hamilton: 75 Stolen Bases
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2014 Stolen Bases: 56
Overview
It may be a bit premature to call Billy Hamilton a "star," but when it comes to the subject of stolen bases, he's the first name out of most people's mouths for the upcoming season.
The speedster swiped 56 bases as a rookie last year, but opponents also caught him an NL-high 23 times, so there is some obvious work to be done on his overall baserunning game.
Over/Under: Under
Hamilton stole a ridiculous 333 bases over his final three seasons in the minors, including a record 155 in 2012, so the skills are there for him to make a legitimate run at triple digits once he reaches his prime.
However, his .250/.292/.355 line still needs a lot of work, and until he can get on base at a more consistent clip, he won't have the opportunity to steal 75-plus bases.
Felix Hernandez: 250 Strikeouts
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2014 Strikeouts: 248
Overview
Generally speaking, a pitcher has his best strikeout stuff shortly after the start of his career, and he learns to pitch to contact and be more efficient with his pitch count as his stuff starts to decline.
However, Felix Hernandez has seen his strikeout rate climb from 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings over the first eight years of his career to 9.5 K/9 in each of the past two seasons. He also fanned a career-high 248 hitters in 236 innings last season.
Over/Under: Under
King Felix has averaged 226 strikeouts and 232 innings over the past six seasons, topping the 200 mark in both categories each year, as he is undoubtedly one of the best pitchers in the game.
That being said, with the expected emergence of James Paxton and Taijuan Walker, and the Mariners eyeing a postseason run, they could look to limit his workload a bit more than in years past with an eye on October.
It's safe to assume he will reach 200 innings and 200 strikeouts again, but his K total will be closer to 200 than to 250.
Clayton Kershaw: 2.00 ERA
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2014 ERA: 1.77
Overview
Clayton Kershaw enters the 2015 season working on a streak of four consecutive NL ERA titles, posting marks of 2.28, 2.53, 1.83 and 1.77.
His 1.77 ERA last season is one of just 13 campaigns a pitcher has posted an ERA under 1.80 since the league expanded in 1961, and it's the lowest overall since Pedro Martinez had a 1.74 ERA in 2000.
Over/Under: Under
With the Dodgers ace entering his age-27 season, one can't help but wonder just how much better Kershaw can get, as he begins what most pitchers consider to be the prime of their career.
That he continues to pitch his home games in Dodger Stadium won't hurt any, and after his sheer dominance in 2014 (1.81 FIP, 0.857 WHIP), it's awfully hard to bet against another sub-2.00 ERA from the game's best pitcher.
Craig Kimbrel: 40 Saves
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2014 Saves: 47
Overview
Since taking over as the Atlanta Braves closer as a rookie in 2011, flame-throwing Craig Kimbrel has piled up 185 saves, leading the National League in that category each season along the way.
He had 46, 42, 50 and 47 saves and did it with dominant peripheral numbers, posting a 1.51 ERA, 0.880 WHIP and 14.6 K/9.
Over/Under: Under
The Atlanta Braves offense might wind up being the worst in baseball in 2015, and while the Braves have a good young trio of starting pitchers, their staff as a whole is not as talented as it was a year ago.
Gone from the relief corps are Jordan Walden, David Carpenter, Chasen Shreve, Anthony Varvaro and David Hale, and unless veterans Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson both step up, they could struggle getting the ball to Kimbrel in the ninth.
He'll fall just short of the 40-save mark for the first time in his career on a non-contending Braves team.
Corey Kluber: 2.50 ERA
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2014 ERA: 2.44
Overview
After showing flashes of bigger things to come in 2013, Corey Kluber broke out in a big way last year, going 18-9 with a 2.44 ERA, 1.095 WHIP and 269 strikeouts in 235.2 innings to win AL Cy Young honors.
The Cleveland Indians will be counting on him to once again do the heavy lifting atop the rotation, as they look to contend for a playoff spot in a wide-open AL Central race.
Over/Under: Under
Breakout seasons are always looked at with a certain amount of skepticism, but there is nothing in the peripheral numbers to suggest Kluber is in for any significant regression in 2015.
His 2.35 FIP was the best in the American League, his walk rate was a minuscule 1.9 BB/9, and he can pile up the strikeouts. Another season right in line with what he did in 2014 looks very possible as he continues to make his case for a big extension.
Andrew McCutchen: 300 Total Bases
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2014 Total Bases: 297
Overview
One of the most dynamic all-around players in the game today, Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen has helped lead his club out of obscurity and into the postseason in consecutive years.
After winning NL MVP in 2013 when he tallied 296 total bases, McCutchen actually improved on that total with 297 this past year.
Those totals both fall well short of the career-high 328 total bases he had in 2012, when he racked up an NL-high 194 hits, including 29 doubles, six triples and 31 home runs.
Over/Under: Over
Seven players topped 300 total bases last season, though none of them resided in the National League, as Giancarlo Stanton paced the Senior Circuit with 299.
A bounce-back campaign from Pedro Alvarez could go a long way in helping provide more protection for McCutchen in the middle of the lineup. But either way, expect another big year from the five-tool star.
David Price: 240 Innings Pitched
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2014 Innings Pitched: 248.1
Overview
David Price led all of baseball last season with 248.1 innings of work, splitting the season between Tampa Bay and Detroit and going 15-12 with a 3.26 ERA and 271 strikeouts.
He is one of just 12 pitchers to top 240 innings in the past 10 years, with Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander each doing it twice during that span.
Over/Under: Over
With Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello now in Washington and Boston, respectively, and questions remaining about just how good Verlander will be moving forward, it will be up to Price to carry the Detroit Tigers staff in 2015.
The 29-year-old is entering a contract year, and he has been a horse throughout his career, so the only thing that would stop him from racking up the innings once again would be an injury.
Alex Rodriguez: 20 Home Runs
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2014 Home Runs: 0
Overview
The return of Alex Rodriguez is one of the biggest stories of 2015, but even with a solid performance this spring, it remains to be seen just how big of a role the 39-year-old will have this coming season.
He had seven home runs in 156 at-bats in 2013, and he has not topped the 20-home run mark since he hit 30 back in 2010.
Over/Under: Under
FanGraphs projections have A-Rod hitting .231/.311/.386 with 12 home runs in 340 at-bats, and that sounds reasonable across the board.
He needs seven home runs to pass Willie Mays for fourth on the all-time list and trigger a $6 million bonus, and while that seems well within reach, a 20-homer season is pushing it.
Chris Sale: 1.000 WHIP
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2014 WHIP: 0.966
Overview
Since moving into the Chicago White Sox rotation in 2012, Chris Sale has quickly become one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. And he took his game to another level in 2014.
The left-hander finished 12-4 with a 2.17 ERA, 0.966 WHIP and 208 strikeouts in 174 innings to finish third in AL Cy Young voting and first in the league in ERA+ at 178.
Over/Under: Under
A WHIP under 1.000 is elite-level production, but Sale is undoubtedly one of the game's elite pitchers, and he is still only 25 years old.
He was one of just four pitchers with a sub-1.000 WHIP last year, joining Clayton Kershaw (0.857), Felix Hernandez (0.915) and Johnny Cueto (0.960), and he'll again be among the few to accomplish the feat in 2015.
Max Scherzer: 21 Wins
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2014 Wins: 18
Overview
Max Scherzer took home AL Cy Young honors in 2013 when he went 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 240 strikeouts in 214.1 innings, and he followed that up by going 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA this past season.
The 30-year-old signed a huge seven-year, $210 million deal to join the Washington Nationals this winter, and he'll be the Opening Day starter for a team that looks to be the class of the league.
"It's going to be real exciting," Scherzer told reporters after getting the Opening Day nod (via ESPN). "It's a great honor to be able to start Opening Day, especially for this club and especially on this staff. But at the end of the day, it's just Game 1. There are bigger and better things I want to check off."
Over/Under: Over
Say what you will about their postseason struggles, but the Nationals have piled up wins during the regular season, leading all of baseball with 98 in 2012 and pacing the NL with 96 last season.
The pieces are in place for them to top 100 victories in 2015, and if they do, Scherzer should be in good position to set a new career high for wins and make a serious run at another Cy Young Award.
Giancarlo Stanton: 40 Home Runs
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2014 Home Runs: 37
Overview
Were it not for a gruesome facial fracture that cost him the final 17 games of the season, Giancarlo Stanton might have reached the 40-homer mark for the first time in his career last year.
As it was, he still led the National League with 37 long balls, and he ranked second in average distance at 415.3 feet, according to ESPN's Home Run Tracker.
Over/Under: Over
The Miami Marlins lineup as a whole should be improved this season, and it will be up to Michael Morse, Marcell Ozuna and Martin Prado to provide the necessary protection for Stanton in the middle of the lineup.
The size of Marlins Park doesn't mean much when you're talking about the best raw power in all of baseball. And with the Marlins chasing a postseason berth, Stanton will top 40 home runs and be squarely in the NL MVP discussion once again.
Mike Trout: 1.000 OPS
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2014 OPS: .939
Overview
Despite a significant drop in on-base percentage last season (.432 to .377), Mike Trout still ranked third in the American League with a .939 OPS, as he hit a career-high 36 home runs.
The Angels will again ask him to fill more of a run-production role in 2015, and if he can cut down his strikeouts (184) and get back to taking a few more walks, an on-base percentage north of .400 is well within reach.
Over/Under: Under
At this point, Trout is still adjusting to his role as the primary run producer in the Angels offense, but he also figures to continue improving entering his age-23 season.
There have only been eight seasons with an OPS over 1.000 since 2010, with the most recent being Chris Davis (1.004) and Miguel Cabrera (1.078) in 2013.
Trout will get there, but until his strikeout and walk rates find some consistency, we'll bet on something closer to the .950 range.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
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