Fantasy Baseball 2015: Jason Catania's 'Do Not Draft' List
Drafting in fantasy baseball is as much about perception as anything, because perception is what determines when you, as an owner, will need to consider picking particular players.
But this can be a problem, especially if you get sucked into selecting a certain someone at a specific spot based on widespread perception—when in reality, said spot is too steep a price to pay for said player based on his projected production or some other potential pitfall.
Which brings us to this year's "Do Not Draft" list, 10 players whose elevated perception makes them candidates to disappoint based on their average draft position (ADP).
With that in mind, understand that each of these players is, in fact, talented and could provide quality numbers—or heck, even great ones—in the traditional five-by-five rotisserie categories.
But because of the perception surrounding them, these do-not-drafters also very well may not offer any real surplus value based on their ADP. They might even be (gasp) way worse than expected.
To focus on the bigger names, we're limiting this exercise only to those players whose ADP is 100 or better (i.e., the first 10 rounds), according to Fantasy Pros, a site that aggregates and averages the ADPs from various fantasy baseball providers, including CBS, ESPN and Yahoo, among others.
We're going to assume you already know better than to draft Yu Darvish, who has an ADP of 52.3 but who would miss all of 2015 if he decides to undergo Tommy John surgery. The same goes for Hunter Pence and his 62.3 ADP, who likely is out until May after fracturing his left wrist upon being hit by a pitch in his first spring game.
Oh, and one last thing to make clear: If one of these players does happen to drop in your draft to the point where the price of acquisition becomes reasonable, then by all means, grab 'em. Chances are, though, that won't happen.
Why? Because perception can be a real pain.
Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners (ADP: 10.0)
1 of 10
2014 Fantasy Statistics: 15 W, 2.14 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 248 K, 0 SV (236.0 IP)
Um, is this dude crazy?
That's probably what you're thinking after seeing a "Do Not Draft" column fronted by Felix Hernandez, right? And to borrow from Billy Joel: You may be right—I may be crazy.
Look, Hernandez, who turns 29 in early April, is a beast, just about as good as it gets for a starting pitcher in fantasy, and he's been as consistent as any arm around over the past decade. For all those reasons and more, you should want him on your team.
You just shouldn't want him on your team at his going rate, which requires you to pick him in the top 10 overall.
As you've probably read and heard a lot already—if not figured out for yourself by now—there will be starter-worthy fantasy pitchers just littered throughout your draft, available in the early, middle and, yes, even late rounds. That makes going after one of them with your first choice a questionable allocation of your precious picks.
Should Hernandez last until late in the second or early third round, game on. But for now, there's but one—and only one—pitcher who belongs in Round 1: Clayton Kershaw.
Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros (ADP: 13.2)
2 of 10
2014 Fantasy Statistics: .341 BA, 85 R, 7 HR, 59 RBI, 56 SB (707 PA)
Jose Altuve was absolutely elite in two categories in 2015: He batted an MLB-best .341 and stole 56 bases, second most in the sport behind Dee Gordon's 64.
Those figures made him the top overall fantasy player in five-by-five formats, according to ESPN fantasy baseball's player rater.
Those figures also drove the overwhelming majority of the 24-year-old's value, as he was merely above average in runs scored and arguably below average in home runs and RBI.
If either of Altuve's two top-of-the-scale marks comes down a lot—and chances are at least one, if not both of them, will—then he likely won't offer enough in the other three categories to make up for it.
In short (no pun intended), you should not want to have to bank on a player repeating unsustainably unparalleled statistics in order to justify drafting him among the top dozen or so.
Chris Sale, SP, Chicago White Sox (ADP: 19.7)
3 of 10
2014 Fantasy Statistics: 12 W, 2.17 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 208 K, 0 SV (174.0 IP)
The shame of including Chris Sale here is that he's not only one of the best pitchers in baseball but also perhaps the most fun to watch, what with his herky-jerky delivery and how-does-anybody-hit-this-guy stuff.
The reason the soon-to-be 26-year-old is in this mix? Because a top-20 selection is just too much to invest in a player who always seems to be dealing with some sort of injury issue—or the ever-looming threat of one.
In fact, Sale is already out with an avulsion fracture of his right foot and a sprained ankle, too, ailments that are expected to force him to miss the start of the regular season.
"We’re going to deal with it and it will be better eventually," Sale said, according to Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune. "When that is, I don’t know. But we’re doing everything we can to make that as soon as possible."
To his credit and despite the seemingly constant concern of injury surrounding him, Sale has made 26, 30 and 29 starts the past three seasons. And when he's on the mound, few are better on a per-inning basis.
The trouble is, 220 innings is just about the baseline when it comes to being counted among the best of the best at the deep and talented starting pitcher position, and Sale has yet to hit that mark in his career. Heck, he's reached 200 frames just once, in 2013.
Given Sale's current status, well, how lucky do you feel about his doing that again this year?
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Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants (ADP: 24.7)
4 of 10
2014 Fantasy Statistics: 18 W, 2.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 219 K, 0 SV (217.1 IP)
No, this isn't about Madison Bumgarner's iffy start to spring so far. Don't get worked up over the 25-year-old reigning World Series MVP having allowed six earned runs on nine hits in his first 3.2 innings.
The innings—or "innin's" as Bumgarner would call them in his Carolina drawl—that might be worth being worried about, though, are the 270 the southpaw compiled in 2014 between the regular season and postseason.
Regardless of how big and strong and in-his-prime Bumgarner is, that's an awful lot for one arm to take. It's certainly enough to give pause when considering drafting the San Francisco Giants ace just inside the top 25 overall.
For years, Bumgarner was a fantasy darling, because he was a bit overlooked and underrated, the kind of pitcher you could snag a few rounds later than others in his talent tier and who would provide near-SP 1 production at a relatively cheap cost.
But that's no longer possible.
Not after what Bumgarner did during his historic October, including posting a minuscule 1.03 ERA and electron-sized 0.65 WHIP in a record 52.2 postseason innings, a performance that earned him Sports Illustrated's Sportsman of the Year.
With so many other No. 1 starting pitcher options in this same ADP range—from Stephen Strasburg (ADP: 25.0) to David Price (ADP: 25.8) to Corey Kluber (ADP: 30.7)—reaching for Bumgarner just because of an otherworldly October isn't worth the risk that said postseason might put on his health and/or durability in 2015.
Buster Posey, C/1B, San Francisco Giants (ADP: 26.0)
5 of 10
2014 Fantasy Statistics: .311 BA, 72 R, 22 HR, 89 RBI, 0 SB (605 PA)
Not to pick on the Giants or anything—they were the champs in 2014 (and 2012 and 2010, too)—but their two best players are featured prominently on this "Do Not Draft" list. And justifiably so.
Make no mistake: Buster Posey, who turns 28 just prior to the start of the regular season, is easily the best fantasy catcher on the market yet again.
But going after Posey—or a catcher in general, for that matter—with a near top-25 overall choice is a massive mistake. (This applies even in formats that require two catchers, although Posey's value and price both get a bump in such leagues.)
You see, backstops need more rest than any other offensive position players, and they take a beating behind the plate, which hurts their production at it. To wit, Posey is one of the rare catchers who has had plenty of run at first base to keep his bat in the lineup, and still, he hasn't played more than 148 games in a single season.
That number could dip in 2015, too. Don't forget: Like Bumgarner, Posey also had a long 2014 campaign, which could impact how the Giants use him this year. The last time San Francisco won it all in 2012, Posey's follow-up started strong (.325 BA, 13 HR, 56 RBI in the first half of 2013), but he fell off a cliff in the second half (.244 BA, 2 HR, 16 RBI).
Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves (ADP: 33.0)
6 of 10
2014 Fantasy Statistics: .288 BA, 93 R, 18 HR, 78 RBI, 3 SB (708 PA)
There are two rather obvious reasons why Freddie Freeman is one to avoid this year at his current ADP of 33.0.
For one thing, first base is deep, what with upward of a dozen candidates who are more than capable of being your starter at the spot—and that's not even counting Freeman. To be clear, the 25-year-old certainly ranks in that pack, although more toward the middle or even the back of it than the front end.
Why push to pick up Freeman a round before Adrian Gonzalez or Albert Pujols, let alone two or three rounds before Victor Martinez or Prince Fielder?
For another thing, well, have you actually considered the Atlanta Braves' 2015 lineup? It ain't pretty after the club spent this offseason jettisoning its three best hitters (non-Freeman division) in Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis.
That leaves the likes of Alberto Callaspo, Eric Young Jr. and rookie Christian Bethancourt in a one-through-nine that pits Chris Johnson and Nick Markakis as the two "best" offensive players aside from Freeman. Yee-ikes.
If you draft Freeman, you may need him to give you one of his famous hugs at some point during the year to make up for the fantasy statistics that won't be there.
Aroldis Chapman, RP, Cincinnati Reds (ADP: 47.0)
7 of 10
2014 Fantasy Statistics: 0 W, 2.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 106 K, 36 SV (54.0 IP)
The argument for not drafting Aroldis Chapman is a lot like the one we ran through for Buster Posey. Simply put: Closers, like catchers, come with an inherent value-sapping quality about them.
In the case of catchers like Posey, that's playing time. In the case of closers like Chapman, it's even worse.
Closers, as you well know, typically throw somewhere between 60 and 70 innings in a season, meaning even one as outstanding as Chapman simply can't contribute enough innings for his elite ERA and WHIP to make much of a dent in your entire pitching staff's marks.
What's more, as you can see by the 27-year-old's 2014 win total—that would be zero—closers also offer very little, if anything at all, in wins.
The primary reason you're drafting a closer, then, is for the saves—and saves alone. Yes, Chapman's ERA, WHIP and strikeouts will be among the very best for all relievers, but why waste a top-50 pick on a 70-inning pitcher primarily to address one category when you can do just that a handful of rounds later?
Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds (ADP: 70.8)
8 of 10
2014 Fantasy Statistics: .255 BA, 32 R, 6 HR, 23 RBI, 1 SB (272 PA)
The second Cincinnati Reds player in a row, Joey Votto is here for a much different reason than Aroldis Chapman is.
Votto has gone from fantasy force to a total question mark in one year. While the decline had been evident but rather slow prior to 2014, he then missed 100 games with something of a chronic quad strain and put up those uninspiring numbers you see above in the 62 games he did play.
There's hope that Votto can bounce back in 2015 to be something close to what he was in, say, 2013, when he hit .305 and scored 101 runs while also pitching in a respectable 24 homers and 73 RBI. It's possible, sure—as long as he can stay healthy.
But that has been the biggest problem, as he's now entering his age-31 campaign and has endured knee surgery in 2012 followed by injuries to both quads last season. That he and the club took it very slowly to start spring training—he didn't partake in any of the Reds' first four games—even after he hadn't played since last July 5, is at least a little perplexing, if not worrisome.
Because Votto is going as late as he is (i.e. Rounds 6-8) when he was a borderline first-round choice a year ago, there is a chance he'll be a bargain. But at such a deep position, owners really need to secure a steady—and healthy—source of power, and Votto may not be able to provide that.
Should you miss out on several others at first base, Votto is a worthwhile gamble who could prove worth starting. Just don't target him too soon.
Masahiro Tanaka, SP, New York Yankees (ADP: 90.0)
9 of 10
2014 Fantasy Statistics: 13 W, 2.77 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 141 K, 0 SV (136.1 IP)
Masahiro Tanaka was one of the five best starting pitchers in fantasy as a rookie in 2014—when healthy, that is.
The 26-year-old Japanese sensation was superb through the first half, but his elbow went ouch in July, and he wound up missing two-and-a-half months with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament, the one that generally requires Tommy John surgery when it gives.
Tanaka and the New York Yankees were advised to go the rest-and-rehab route rather than the one that involves a knife, and the reports this spring have been positive, as he's thrown several bullpen and batting-practice sessions and a simulated game. Next comes a big step: The righty is slated to make his first spring start on Thursday, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.
Because he was so darn great last year—again, when healthy—there's potentially a huge upside if you take Tanaka. Certainly, the injury risk is factored into his ADP, which puts him just inside the first 100 picks.
But that's the range where many owners are selecting their second or even first starting pitcher, and counting on Tanaka to be that in 2015 is being a little too cavalier, considering he could go down for the count at any moment.
If Tanaka drops in your draft to the point where he would be your third starter, then go for it. But otherwise, you'll be needing 30 strong starts from any pitcher picked as high as he's going.
Charlie Blackmon, OF, Colorado Rockies (ADP: 94.7)
10 of 10
2014 Fantasy Statistics: .288 BA, 82 R, 19 HR, 72 RBI, 28 SB (648 PA)
Charlie Blackmon was one of 2014's breakout players, which makes him a divisive cat going into this season.
On one hand, there are owners who see his five-category production, in-his-prime age (28) and his hitter-friendly home park and think, "Yep, gimme some Charlie."
But others worry about a few factors that could turn Blackmon back into a pumpkin.
For one, much of his production a year ago derived from his monster April, when he hit .374 out of nowhere to seize a starting job, and his still-strong May, when he smacked five more homers and drove in another 19 runs. In no month after that did he come close to those power numbers.
For another, the lefty-swinging Blackmon struggled against southpaws, with a .697 OPS, compared to an .801 mark versus right-handers.
And like almost all Colorado Rockies hitters, Blackmon was rather tame outside of Coors Field, as his .241 average, 23 runs, six homers, 24 RBI and nine steals show.
None of this is to say that Blackmon can't be good again, since he certainly could continue to produce against righties and while playing at Denver's high altitude. But it is a warning that there are reasons why his stats may dip, especially the homers and RBI, given the platoon and home-road splits that reveal two areas that could drop off.
Statistics are accurate through Tuesday, March 10 and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11
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