ETAs for Top Rebuilding MLB Teams to Become Playoff-Bound
Thanks to an additional wild-card spot and the availability of lots and lots of spending money, it's really never been easier for Major League Baseball clubs to flip a switch and try to build a winner overnight.
And yet, there's still a place in the game for rebuilding. And yes, it's still a complicated process that's hard to get right. Determining when rebuilds should be completed isn't an exact science.
So here's wishing us luck, because what we're here to do is dive into MLB's rebuilding teams and narrow down when they figure to have a real shot at playing in October.
My list contains 10 teams that have either been in a rebuilding phase in recent years or are just now getting into a rebuilding phase. And though predicting when they will be returning to the postseason is a fool's errand, we can at least look at things like major league assets, minor league assets and financial flexibility and come up with a forecast for when they should be good enough for the task.
Let's go ahead and count 'em down, starting with the longest rebuilds and working our way up to the clubs that should make it October the soonest.
Colorado Rockies
1 of 10
It's admittedly hard to put a label on the Rockies, as FanGraphs' Dave Cameron had it right when he wrote they've seemed "unable to commit to a direction or a purpose" in recent years.
But we know the Rockies have lost at least 88 games four years in a row, and that new general manager Jeff Bridich kept silent this winter. The Rockies are thus looking and acting like they're ready to rebuild.
On paper, the Rockies are solid in terms of controllable assets and their farm system. They control Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson for at least another three years, and ESPN.com's Keith Law has their farm system ranked No. 8 in baseball.
But it's not all good. Tulowitzki and Gonzalez's advancing ages, frequent injuries and big salaries figure to make it difficult for the Rockies to get value out of them either on the field or on the trade market. And while CarGo's contact is done after 2017, Tulo's runs through at least 2020.
As for Colorado's farm system, what it really needs to provide is good pitching. Hard-throwing right-hander Jon Gray is the big hope there, and he should be ready soon. But because fellow right-hander Eddie Butler may profile better as a reliever and left-hander Kyle Freeland is still a few years away, additional hope outside of Butler is in short supply.
So it looks like the Rockies' rebuild will be a long one. They're stuck with CarGo and Tulo for a while longer, and by the time those two are gone, Colorado's farm system could only be beginning to produce the fruit the team needs.
October ETA: 2021
Arizona Diamondbacks
2 of 10
Unlike the Rockies, the Diamondbacks aren't making much of a secret of their rebuilding phase. There are new sheriffs in town to run the team after a 98-loss season, and their offseason involved jettisoning veterans like Miguel Montero and Wade Miley.
As far as rebuilding foundations go, however, the D-Backs could be a lot worse off. The $1 billion TV deal they just signed gives them a whole lot of financial flexibility going forward, and their farm system has a lot of quality pitching. In fact, arguably their five best prospects are all pitchers: right-handers Archie Bradley, Braden Shipley, Aaron Blair, Touki Toussaint and Yoan Lopez.
What's less awesome is that only Bradley figures to be ready in the near future. The rest will need at least until 2016 to be ready.
Another non-awesome thing is that the D-Backs are pretty light on controllable big league talent. The list includes Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Yasmany Tomas and Patrick Corbin, but that's pretty much where it runs out of interesting names.
The Diamondbacks should at least be able to cause a stir in 2016 and 2017 as they graduate their top pitching prospects and, hopefully, spend some money on veteran talent. But because they'll likely need to graduate additional talent that's not there yet, 2018 is probably the earliest they'll push for October.
October ETA: 2018
Minnesota Twins
3 of 10
The Twins have lost at least 92 games in four straight seasons, and they may be headed for a similar fate in 2015 with a hodgepodge roster that doesn't measure up to the competition in the AL Central.
However, anyone who's been paying attention to Minnesota's rebuilding effort will know that its farm system is definitely in good shape. There's a case to be made for it as baseball's best, and it could bear superstar fruit in the very near future.
The biggest jewel of them all is Byron Buxton, a speedy center fielder who also has a projectable bat. Next to him is third baseman Miguel Sano, who packs all sorts of right-handed power. There is also right-hander Alex Meyer, who possesses some of the best power stuff in the minors.
There's a chance all three will be up in 2015 and playing every day by 2016. Combined with the likes of Brian Dozier and Oswaldo Arcia, the Twins could have a solid young core to build on in no time.
Precisely how soon the Twins can contend, though, will depend on the veterans. Joe Mauer, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Glen Perkins and Kurt Suzuki should all still be around by 2017. If they're able to deny Father Time and be productive that year, that's when the Twins could finally make their push.
That's not a guarantee, mind you. But given that the pieces will be there and the Detroit Tigers will likely be too old and broken to control the AL Central by then, it's at least a realistic possibility.
October ETA: 2017
Philadelphia Phillies
4 of 10
There's no mystery here, as Phillies CEO Pat Gillick didn't shy away from using the word "rebuilding" when discussing the club's future with CSNPhilly.com's John Clark last October.
It's about time. The Phillies tried to get things done with an old and decrepit roster in 2013 and 2014, but consecutive 89-loss seasons made it clear they were wasting their time. And so, here they are.
Frankly, the Phillies' rebuilding process could be starting from a better position. Their farm system is one of baseball's worst, as Law ranked it No. 25 in MLB. Trading ace left-hander Cole Hamels could have certainly helped, but the Phillies are instead holding on to him in hopes of landing a dream package down the line.
If that fails, it will be up to the draft and the international market for the Phillies to make something of their farm system. And while that certainly can be done, it will take a while.
On the bright side, the Phillies at least have lots of spending power. Especially these days, as they recently signed a $2.5 billion TV deal. And with Ryan Howard, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz set to come off the books in the next few years, they'll soon be able to do whatever they want with their riches.
Gillick indicated that the club's rebuild could be over as soon as 2017. That's actually a realistic goal, as they'll have the money to add lots of veteran talent to a roster that should soon include talented youngsters like right-hander Aaron Nola, shortstop J.P. Crawford and third baseman Maikel Franco.
If the Phillies find some fast risers in the draft between now and then, a return to October in 2017 will only be more likely.
October ETA: 2017
Atlanta Braves
5 of 10
The Braves became a surprise entry into the rebuilding club this winter. Though they only lost 83 games in 2014, new boss John Hart broke things up by trading away Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis.
Odds are the Braves will indeed be pretty bad in 2015, as Baseball Prospectus projects them to flirt with only their second 90-loss season since 1991.
But fortunately, things could turn around in a hurry from there.
The Braves have much more controllable talent than most rebuilding clubs, as Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, Craig Kimbrel, Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller, Mike Minor and Alex Wood are all controlled through at least the next three seasons.
To boot, below them is a farm system that Keith Law ranks No. 6 in MLB. It's "a little light on future stars," Law says, but catcher Christian Bethancourt, second baseman Jose Peraza and right-handers Lucas Sims and Mike Foltynewicz are solid prospects who should make an impact in the next two seasons.
After that, the Braves will move into their new ballpark in 2017. That and the fact that Melvin Upton Jr.'s contract will run out after 2017 should inspire them to spend big on veteran talent.
The Phillies and Washington Nationals should also be NL East powers in 2017, which will make things tough for the Braves to advance to the postseason, to be sure. But if all goes according to plan, they should at least have a roster capable of getting there.
October ETA: 2017
Houston Astros
6 of 10
The Astros have done an awful lot of losing in the last four years, dropping at least 100 games each year between 2011 and 2013 and 92 in 2014.
But things are finally looking up. The Astros got quality seasons out of Jose Altuve, George Springer, Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh and Chris Carter in 2014. And after the additions of Jed Lowrie, Colby Rasmus, Evan Gattis, Hank Conger, Pat Neshek and Luke Gregerson, the Astros now have a team that might actually be a surprise contender in 2015.
If 2015 doesn't see the Astros make a surprise run to October, fear not. Odds are they're going to make an even stronger push in 2016.
With the exception of Rasmus, all of the players mentioned above should still be around in 2016. Joining them should be two elite prospects in shortstop Carlos Correa and right-hander Mark Appel. Both could debut this year, and they'll be ready to contribute every day next year.
What could help open the door for the Astros is the Los Angeles Angels possibly falling on hard times. That's not likely to happen now, but 2016 could be a rough year with Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson past their primes and still eating up a huge amount of payroll.
The 2015 season should see the Astros play a season's worth of relevant baseball for the first time in years. Expect that to be a springboard to bigger and better things in 2016.
October ETA: 2016
Miami Marlins
7 of 10
The Marlins looked headed for a long rebuild after following up a big payroll-dump trade in 2012 with a 100-loss season in 2013. But after improving by 15 wins in 2014, they decided to get aggressive.
After signing Giancarlo Stanton to a record 13-year, $325 million contract, the Marlins sought to surround him with veteran talent by bringing in Dee Gordon, Mat Latos, Martin Prado and Mike Morse. They now have a solid blend of youthful and veteran talent, so optimism for 2015 is warranted.
But don't be too optimistic. With Jose Fernandez still months away from returning from Tommy John surgery and Latos coming off an injury-wrecked 2014 season, Miami's rotation could be a serious weak spot in 2015. It doesn't help that the Marlins also have to worry about contending with the Nationals in the NL East, and they're not clearly better than other Wild Card contenders elsewhere in the National League.
So contention in 2016 seems more realistic. Fernandez will be all the way back, and the $10 million left over from Latos' departure as a free agent could be invested elsewhere. Prospects like catcher J.T. Realmuto, left-hander Justin Nicolino and right-hander Jose Urena should also be better prepared than they are now to make an impact.
It's fair to expect the Marlins to further build on last year's surprise season in 2015, but they probably need another year before they're knocking on October's door.
October ETA: 2016
San Diego Padres
8 of 10
Between 2011 and 2014, the Padres lost at least 85 games every year and had precisely nobody's attention. They weren't just bad, they were boring.
That should no longer be the case in 2015. New general manager A.J. Preller added James Shields to a pitching staff that was already good, and he upgraded a hapless offense with Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks. That's how you remake a team, folks.
In reality, though, 2016 is a more practical target than 2015.
As sexy as the Padres look now, they have serious defensive question marks (especially in the outfield) that could easily derail their chances of hanging with the Giants and Dodgers in the NL West. There's a good chance 2015 will be a trial year that teaches them about holes they need to fix.
Fortunately, the Padres will be in a position to fix said holes next winter.
With Upton, Ian Kennedy and Carlos Quentin coming off the books after 2015, they'll have some flexibility to pursue upgrades. That alone could put San Diego in a position to contend in 2016, and the arrivals of catcher Austin Hedges, right-hander Matt Wisler and outfielder Hunter Renfroe could also help.
In short, it's like this: 2015 should be the first step toward October for the Padres, and 2016 should be the final one.
October ETA: 2016
Chicago White Sox
9 of 10
While they were busy losing 99 games in 2013 and 89 games in 2014, the White Sox were carrying out what was shaping up to be a longer, more gradual rebuild.
But then they changed the script over the winter, acquiring a host of veteran talent that included Jeff Samardzija, David Robertson, Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche. Because they already had guys like Jose Abreu, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Adam Eaton, they now look like a contender for 2015.
Let's put it this way: They better be.
Chicago's new-look roster may be studded with stars, but the weaknesses are there. Namely at third base, second base, right field and the back of their rotation. With weaknesses like those, it's no wonder the projections don't like them to be major contenders in 2015.
If the White Sox don't make it to October in 2015, they stand to lose Samardzija next winter. And though top prospect Carlos Rodon could take his place, he's really the only prospect in Chicago's system that figures to make an impact in the near future. It will also be tough for the White Sox to fill in the gaps by spending money, as they won't have any real financial flexibility until after 2016.
But let's be nice and give the White Sox the benefit of the doubt. At the very least, this year's team is a huge improvement over last season's squad. And in a year where the AL Central seems to lack a dominant power, their move to get back to the promised land in 2015 actually has a decent chance of working out.
October ETA: 2015
Chicago Cubs
10 of 10
The first three years of the Theo Epstein regime on the North Side of Chicago were pretty rough, as the Cubs lost a total of 286 games between 2012 and 2014.
But not unlike their South Side rivals, the Cubs decided to go for broke this winter. Joe Maddon was brought in to manage things, and Epstein and Co. augmented a young roster with veteran talents like Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, Dexter Fowler and Miguel Montero.
How far the Cubs can go in 2015 hinges on what the young talent can do to help the club's new veterans, which some understandably think is an iffy prospect. But in reality, it's not.
It was largely thanks to their youngsters that the Cubs posted a respectable 33-35 record in the second half of 2014. All the more encouraging is that they did that with only one month of right fielder Jorge Soler and nothing from slugging third baseman Kris Bryant.
Chances are both of them will be in the Cubs lineup from the get-go this season, resulting in a strong batting order to go with a solid starting rotation and an underrated bullpen. As Jonah Keri argued for Grantland, you'd be a fool not to take the over on the Vegas projection of 82.5 wins.
You don't need to go too far over that mark to earn a Wild Card in today's MLB. And knowing what the Cubs are packing, they should be up to the task.
Consider the Cubs' rebuild over.
October ETA: 2015
