Standard Leagues vs. PPR Leagues: The Effect on ADP
Welcome back to "A Librarian’s Touch."
For those who are new to the column, I run a blog full of links to fantasy football resources called "Fantasy Football Librarian" but the Bruno Boys have given me a chance to voice my opinion a bit more here in the "A Librarian’s Touch" column.
Once again, this year I’ll try to shed some new light on rankings, draft strategies, and player stats as the season rolls along.
The 2009 season is almost here and draft excitement is palpable. I’m already participating in two email-style drafts, one of which is a PPR (points-per-reception) league.
Not surprisingly, I’ve been thinking a lot about PPR leagues lately, especially since I feel their popularity seems to be increasing each year.
There are some obvious players that get a significant upgrade in their draft position in PPR leagues, like Reggie Bush and Wes Welker. But as we all know, it’s often the players that are drafted in middle or late rounds that surprise us and carry us to the playoffs.
So with that in mind, I compared Mock Draft Central’s ADP (average draft position) for a handful of players in both regular and PPR leagues to determine which guys I should really hone in on for those mid to late rounds. Keep in mind these are not your typical starters, but guys you might want to stock your bench or flex spots with this fall.
WR Steve Smith (NYG)
Smith’s ADP rose from 156.81 in a regular league to 138.41 when compared to a PPR league, the most substantial rise of all players that I looked at here.
Smith is expected to lead the Giants in receptions and is poised to improve upon his 2008 stats of 57 receptions and 574 yards. With just one TD last year, it’s no surprise that Smith’s value is lurking in the 150s in regular leagues, but switch to a PPR league and a player that might just bring in 70+ receptions deserves a long, hard look.
TE Brent Celek (PHI)
Celek’s ADP went from 182.06 in a regular league to almost a full round earlier (in 12-team leagues) at 173.29 in PPR leagues.
Celek had a measly 27 receptions in 2008. Consider, though, that he racked up 19 receptions and three TDs during the playoffs. Add in the departure of L.J. Smith, and you’ve got a very interesting TE to consider.
During the NFC title game, Celek’s stats included 10 receptions and two TDs. His impressive final game of the 2008 season is surely driving his uptick in draft position for PPR leagues.
WRs Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess (MIA)
Both Miami receivers saw a noticeable jump in their ADP when drafted in PPR leagues. Camarillo’s ADP went from 187.80 to 177.44, while Bess’ rose from 189.63 to 177.62.
Interestingly, there’s very little differentiation between these two receivers at this point in the preseason since Camarillo is recovering from his knee surgery ahead of schedule. Further details are sure to develop as more preseason games are played and they separate a bit more from one another.
If you’re looking for a late round WR that might provide you with a decent dose of value in PPR leagues, keep a close eye on the receiver scene in Miami.
RBs Sammy Morris and Laurence Maroney (NE)
I just recently grabbed Morris at the 15.01 spot in a PPR league and I’m feeling pretty pleased with myself, to be quite honest.
His ADP in regular leagues is 159.20, but 150.86 in PPR leagues. Meanwhile, Maroney’s ADP went from 165.10 in regular leagues to 156.33 in PPR leagues—a nice little bump for both players, if you ask me.
This is a bit of a mystery to me, though, since neither one is really used as a receiver very often.
Morris’ receptions peaked in 2006 at 21 (six receptions in 2007 and 17 receptions in 2008), while Maroney’s 22 receptions in 2006 beat out his four catches in 2007. To make things even more interesting, Fred Taylor’s ADP barely changed at all when comparing regular and PPR leagues. (He’s being drafted far earlier in the 120ish range.)
All in all, my take is that no one has a clue what will happen in the Pats' backfield, meaning one of their backs will be acquired at a great value...but which one?!
A few others whose ADP dropped a bit and should be given greater consideration in PPR leagues include Eddie Royal (from 56.09 to 50.25), Lance Moore (65.20 to 62.63), Chris Henry (168.87 to 165.16), and Nate Washington (169 to 163.41).
The Bruno Boys are pleased to once again welcome guest columnist Sara Holladay back for her feature, "A Librarian’s Touch," for the 2009 season.
The woman behind the Web site Fantasy Football Librarian, Holladay is someone all fantasy owners should be well familiar with if they want to win their league’s title as she provides some of the best fantasy football insight and resources found around the Web!
For more fantasy football insight and advice, visit BRUNO BOYS FANTASY FOOTBALL.
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