Contender or Pretender on Each Hyped-Up MLB Offseason Rebuild
After one of the most active and entertaining offseasons in recent memory, Major League Baseball is back where it belongs—on the field—with teams reporting to spring training in preparation for the upcoming season.
It affords us our first look at new faces in new places, something that each and every one of baseball's 30 teams deal with on a yearly basis.
But there are a handful of teams whose rosters look significantly different than they did at the end of last season. Call it what you will: rebuilding, retooling, tweaking. Some of those efforts are a long process that's drawn out over a few years. For others, the overhaul comes in the span of a few weeks.
These rebuilding jobs have been hyped up to the point that it'd be easy to believe that every team that's traveled down this road heads into 2015 as a legitimate contender. Except that's simply not true: There are still some pretenders among the group.
Let's take a crack at making some sense of it all.
Boston Red Sox
1 of 6
Key Additions
- C Ryan Hanigan
- SP Justin Masterson
- SP Wade Miley
- RP Alexi Ogando
- SP Rick Porcello
- LF Hanley Ramirez
- RP Robbie Ross
- 3B Pablo Sandoval
- RP Anthony Varvaro
Overview
Boston may not have baseball's highest scoring offense like it did in 2011 and 2013, but the additions of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, coupled with a full season of Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo—not to mention a return to health for Dustin Pedroia—should ensure that the Red Sox won't be hurting for run production as they did in 2014.
But "should" offers no guarantees, and there are legitimate questions about the pitching staff.
Is Rick Porcello ready to raise his game to meet expectations that come along with being Boston's de facto ace? Can Clay Buchholz and Justin Masterson bounce back from down years? What if Wade Miley struggles in his transition from the National League to the American League?
What, if anything, does a 40-year-old Koji Uehara have left in the tank—and who replaces him in the ninth inning if he's running on fumes?
While it'd be nice to have the answers to those questions, we don't necessarily need them to welcome the Red Sox back to the land of contenders, as MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince recently wrote for Sports on Earth:
"I just know that there is enough discernible depth here to make the worst-to-first-to-worst-to-first concept realistic, at the very least. The AL East seems totally wide open. And while the Red Sox might have to get creative in trades both before and after Opening Day to claim it, I like their chances of doing so.
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Once baseball's most powerful division, the AL East is up for grabs. New York and Tampa Bay aren't what they used to be, Toronto (while improved) has its own set of questions to answer and Baltimore, which won the division handily a year ago, seems to have taken a step back this winter.
Verdict: Contender
Chicago Cubs
2 of 6
Key Additions
- CF Dexter Fowler
- SP Jason Hammel
- SP Jon Lester
- MGR Joe Maddon
- C Miguel Montero
- RP Jason Motte
Overview
There's not a better manager to lead a team full of young talent than Joe Maddon, who set expectations high at his introductory press conference back in November by guaranteeing a playoff berth for the Chicago Cubs in 2015.
While there's reason to be excited about the future at Wrigley Field—and there's little doubt that the Maddon-led Cubs will improve upon the team's 73 wins in 2014—expectations should be tempered.
For as ESPNChicago.com's Jesse Rogers wrote back in December, the Cubs are still a year away: "This team simply isn't ready. And that’s all right. Next season will be a great stepping-stone year for Maddon to learn his team and for the front office to figure out which of its young players is for real."
Perhaps just as important, the Cubs need to learn their new manager.
Last month, Maddon told the Chicago Tribune's Mark Gonzales that the team was going to hold young players accountable, a stark difference from what they knew under former skipper Rick Renteria. That may not sit well with everyone.
It took Maddon two years to lead Tampa Bay into the playoffs—he'll take half as long to do the same in Chicago. Come 2016, nobody's going to want to play the Cubs.
Verdict: Pretender
Chicago White Sox
3 of 6
Key Additions
- RP Matt Albers
- UTIL Emilio Bonifacio
- OF Melky Cabrera
- RP Zach Duke
- RP Dan Jennings
- 1B/DH Adam LaRoche
- CL David Robertson
- SP Jeff Samardzija
- C Geovany Soto
Overview
While staff ace Chris Sale is excited about Chicago's outlook heading into 2015, the perennial Cy Young Award contender knows better than to take anything for granted, as he told Scott Merkin of MLB.com recently:
"Games aren't won in the offseason and they are sure not won on paper. Collectively we still have to play the games and produce. But it's exciting. It's fun to show up to spring training with energy. You are going to see something different about this spring training than the last couple."
He's right about one thing: We're going to see something different at White Sox camp.
It starts with a lineup that is no longer as reliant on Jose Abreu and Alexei Ramirez for run production as it was a year ago, with Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche bought in to pick up some of the slack. Emilio Bonifacio may not be an everyday player, but his versatility gives manager Robin Ventura options when it comes to filling out his bench; there's value in that.
The team's bullpen, which was without a quality option in the ninth inning and posted the third-highest ERA in baseball (4.38), has been rebuilt around stud closer David Robertson, while secondary pieces like Matt Albers, Zach Duke and Dan Jennings offer quality depth.
But the key to Chicago's offseason was the addition of Jeff Samardzija, who fits perfectly in the rotation as the No. 2 starter and gives the White Sox a potentially dominant trio of Sale, Samardzija and the always underrated Jose Quintana.
While the AL Central might be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball this year, there's no reason to believe that Chicago can't keep pace with the likes of Cleveland, Detroit and Kansas City all season long.
Verdict: Contender
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Houston Astros
4 of 6
Key Additions
- C Hank Conger
- OF Evan Gattis
- RP Luke Gregerson
- RP Roberto Hernandez
- MGR A.J. Hinch
- SS Jed Lowrie
- RP Pat Neshek
- OF Colby Rasmus
- SP Dan Straily
- RP Joe Thatcher
- 3B Luis Valbuena
Overview
Things are looking up in Houston, where a lot would have to go wrong for the Astros to post their fifth consecutive 90-loss season.
A sneakily solid rotation will be bolstered by the addition of Hank Conger, who along with Jason Castro ranks as one of the best pitch-framers in the game according to Baseball Prospectus, and general manager Jeff Luhnow rebuilt a bullpen that posted a MLB-worst 4.80 ERA a season ago.
While Evan Gattis, Jed Lowrie and Luis Valbuena are upgrades over the players they're replacing (Robbie Grossman, Jonathan Villar and Matt Dominguez) and add to Houston's power profile, the lineup has a major weakness of which opponents can take advantage. Per ESPN Insider Buster Olney:
"Two hundred sixty-three hitters had at least 300 plate appearances in 2014, and five of the hitters who appear poised to start in Houston's lineup (Chris Carter, Castro, Colby Rasmus, Jon Singleton and George Springer) finished in the top 19 in the majors for highest strikeout percentage.
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Houston already holds the single-season record for strikeouts by a team with 1,535 in 2013. The 1,442 strikeouts racked up by last year's edition checks in at No. 4 on the all-time list—and this year's team could best both of those totals rather easily.
Is a .500 record possible? Sure, especially if Hinch and his coaching staff can get some of those free-swingers to become just a bit more selective at the plate.
But that's not going to be enough to contend in a division that still features the Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners, not to mention a healthy (and still talented) Texas Rangers squad, each one boasting a rotation that's littered with pitchers who know how to miss bats.
Verdict: Pretender
Oakland Athletics
5 of 6
Key Additions
- DH Billy Butler
- RP Tyler Clippard
- 1B Ike Davis
- SP Kendall Graveman
- SP Jesse Hahn
- 3B Brett Lawrie
- SP Sean Nolin
- SS Marcus Semien
- 2B/OF Ben Zobrist
Overview
One of those who questioned the organization in the wake of the Josh Donaldson trade, outfielder Josh Reddick, told MLB.com's Jane Lee that he's completely on board with what GM Billy Beane has done this offseason.
"Everybody is overlooking us again, with what the Angels and Mariners have done, but we've got some great pieces in return for what we lost. [Beane] knows exactly what he's doing every year."
What Oakland lost was five All-Stars: Jon Lester in free agency, and Donaldson, Brandon Moss, Derek Norris and Jeff Samardzija in trades. In their place is a mix of youth and veteran talent, all with an eye toward avoiding another late-season collapse like the one that felled the A's in 2014.
Even without Donaldson, Moss and Norris, the lineup remains solid, and the gaping hole that has existed at second base for a number of years has finally been filled, albeit it only temporarily, as Ben Zobrist is a free agent after the season.
While nobody's going to confuse Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir for Lester and Samardzija, they form a formidable duo atop a talented rotation that is deeper than most, and the bullpen remains one of the strongest in baseball.
This may not be the same team that won the AL West in two of the past three years, but the A's remain capable of making it three division crowns—and four playoff appearances—in four years.
The Verdict: Contender
San Diego Padres
6 of 6
Key Additions
- OF Matt Kemp
- 3B Will Middlebrooks
- OF Wil Myers
- SP James Shields
- OF Justin Upton
Overview
James Shields was exactly what San Diego needed to put the finishing touches on a remarkably quick rebuild engineered by hotshot general manager A.J. Preller.
A workhorse who can serve as the leader and stopper on a deep and talented pitching staff, he'll take pressure off the younger arms of Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross while lessening the bullpen's workload.
By now, everyone knows the story with San Diego's shiny new outfield of Matt Kemp, Wil Myers and Justin Upton. They've got the potential to be one of baseball's most productive outfields at the plate and, conversely, one of the game's worst in the field.
But you don't need to have a Gold Glove Award-winning outfield to make the playoffs.
Just ask the Detroit Tigers or Kemp's former employers, the Los Angeles Dodgers, two teams that played into October despite outfields that, per FanGraphs, landed in the bottom third of baseball in both UZR/150 and DRS last season.
That's not to say that the 2015 Padres are on the same level as those teams—but they don't have to be in order to contend for a playoff spot.
Is this a perfect team? Hardly. But it's the most talented one that manager Bud Black, who is widely regarded as one of the game's best, has had in years. We've seen him do more with less in the past—why couldn't he do more with more this time around?
Verdict: Contender
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR
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