B/R Fantasy Baseball 300: Ranking the Top 50 Outfielders
With the top 150 fantasy baseball players all ordered and ranked on the initial 2015 Big Board, the individual position rankings are well underway. All told, there will be (count 'em) 300 players ranked.
After providing some sequencing to the shortstops last time out, next up is outfield, which is rather deep and offers all sorts of fantasy skill sets.
To that end, while there are four outfielders who form a pretty clear top tier—Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton and Carlos Gomez—there are roughly 40 outfielders owners should be more than happy inserting into their starting lineups.
That means coming away from the draft with three or even four quality OFs shouldn't be too difficult. Getting that fifth definitive, no-doubt-about-it starter, however, is where things get tougher.
Also challenging? Figuring out how to construct your outfield to make the best use of the fact that there are five starting positions in most formats. If you want to go outfield-heavy, the recommendation here is to snatch a stud or two (read: top 10) in the first three or four rounds and then let the other spots fall into place as needed.
In other words, if you realize as you're drafting that you're lacking power, target a Jay Bruce or Marcell Ozuna a few rounds later. But if you have a need for speed, then there will be a Brett Gardner or Denard Span available even after that. Searching for a batting average boost? Grab Melky Cabrera or Adam Eaton.
Because there are all kinds of approaches and options when it comes to building your outfield, let's go a little deeper than usual by running down the top 50 overall fantasy outfielders and a few others you should watch, including potential impact rookies.
These rankings consider three factors:
First, everything is based on 10- or 12-team mixed leagues with standard 5x5 rotisserie scoring (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB for hitters; W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV for pitchers).
Second, lineup construction accounts for 22 active roster positions consisting of: one each for catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner infield, middle infield and utility, along with five outfielders and nine pitchers.
And third, to be eligible at a particular position, players either must have played at least 20 games there in 2014 or be in line to start there in 2015.
The Outfield 'Watch List'
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Rajai Davis, OF, Detroit Tigers
At 34, Davis ain't no spring chicken anymore, but he's still as quick as one, having swiped 36 bags—his sixth straight season with at least 30. Davis also showed that he still has enough in his bat (.282 BA, 64 R, 8 HR, 51 RBI) to get the job done as a near-everyday player, which is likely the role he'll have once again now that he's splitting center field duties with the inexperienced, defensive-oriented Anthony Gose. As cheap as you'll find 30 steals.
Lorenzo Cain, OF, Kansas City Royals
Thanks to an elevated, unsustainable .380 BABIP, it's easy to see how Cain's 2015 numbers could dip after hitting .301 with 28 steals—exactly twice his previous career high—a year ago. But there's also the hard-to-ignore fact that this is a 28-year-old who could be coming into his own later than most, because he didn't even start playing baseball—like, at all—until his sophomore year of high school.
Don't get too carried away after his postseason coming-out party, but Cain, who has yet to reach 500 at-bats in a season, will benefit from entering the year as the no-doubt starter for the first time in his MLB career.
Michael Saunders, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
There just might be a little Jayson Werth-like late-career bloom in Saunders. Just like Werth, the tall, lanky 28-year-old has struggled with injuries through his six seasons, but Saunders does have a near 20-20 campaign on his resume (2012) and posted his best-ever OPS (.791) last year. Plus, switching from Safeco Field to the Rogers Centre can only help.
Steven Souza, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Souza was the big get in the questionable, controversial Wil Myers trade this offseason, and the Rays are going to give him all kinds of opportunities to prove they made the right call. Despite just 23 career at-bats in the bigs, the oft-injured 25-year-old rookie, who was drafted in the third round way back in 2007, is ready for The Show after a boffo season at Triple-A, where he hit .350 with 18 homers and 26 steals.
Dalton Pompey, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Pompey broke out in a big, big way in 2014, reaching Toronto in September after opening the year in High-A ball. He hit .317/.392/.469 along his three-level jaunt through the minors and then put the cherry on top of his season by smacking his first big league homer off none other than Felix Hernandez. Pompey's carrying tool in fantasy, though, will be his base-stealing ability, as he backed up his 38 in 2013 with 44 more last year, including one as a Blue Jay.
Toronto's center field gig is wide open entering camp, but as one of the team's top prospects, Pompey has the inside track. Should he win it, there will be a transition period for the just-turned 22-year-old, but Pompey is advanced enough at the plate to matter in AL-only leagues.
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins
Before you go getting all excited over the fact that Buxton, widely considered either the best or second-best prospect in the entire sport, is listed here, the reason he is has to do with warning against drafting him in anything but keeper or dynasty leagues.
Yes, he has the potential to be a stud, particularly in the stolen base category, but this is a barely 21-year-old kid who was limited to just 31 games in 2014 due to multiple wrist injuries and a nasty concussion from a scary collision in his first-ever game at Double-A. The best-case scenario has Buxton up in September.
Nos. 50-46
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No. 50: Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Mets
Granderson's first year with the other New York club started out disastrously; he was hitting under .200 with just six homers through May (53 games). While the soon-to-be 34-year-old never really got fully into the swing, he did at least bat .241 with 14 homers thereafter (102 games). The average won't be pretty, but Granderson could swat 25-plus out, especially in the slightly shorter right field dimensions at Citi Field.
No. 49: Marlon Byrd, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Byrd, now 37 and playing for the Reds—his fourth team in three years—has had quite the second (or is it third?) act to his career, tallying 49 home runs the past two seasons when it looked like he was done and gone at the end of 2012. The power surge apparently is for real, so it's fair to pencil in 20 homers here, but if you draft Byrd, beware of the declining average (.264 last year) related to the increasing strikeout rate (29 percent).
No. 48: A.J. Pollock, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Pollock's potential breakout 2014 campaign was interrupted when his right hand was fractured by a pitch from Johnny Cueto at the end of May, resulting in surgery that kept him out until early September. Even in just 75 games, the 27-year-old Pollock managed seven homers and 14 steals while hitting .302. Don't expect Pollock to double those numbers if he stays healthy all year, but this is an under-the-radar late-round flier who will help in at least two or three categories.
No. 47: Avisail Garcia, OF, Chicago White Sox
Garcia had his own injury issues when he lost most of last season following surgery on his left shoulder in April. He's still very much an unknown, unproven fantasy commodity, but the 23-year-old former prospect is young, on the upswing and a part of a dynamic, revamped White Sox lineup. That's the sort of upside play owners should target, especially for cheap.
No. 46: Khris Davis, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Despite entering just his second full season, Davis is older than you think at 27, so the upside is limited to build much more on his intriguing 2014 (.244 BA, 70 R, 22 HR, 69 RBI). The power is legitimate, though, so another 20- to 25-homer outing is realistic, but the discouraging plate discipline means the low average likely stays where it is too.
Nos. 45-41
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No. 45: Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Minnesota Twins
The 23-year-old Arcia's pop continues to grow, as he jumped from 14 homers in 97 games in 2013 to 20 long balls in 103 contests in 2014. Health has been a concern, and so have strikeouts (31 percent career), but if he can get those flaws under control, a spike to 30 home runs is within the realm of possibility.
No. 44: Ben Revere, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Revere, 26, is likely to place higher on other's rankings, because, heck, the man hit .306 with 49 stolen bases a year ago. Thing is, he has to do that again to be a worthwhile starting outfielder, because Revere offers absolutely nothing in the power categories. In fact, his two home runs in 2014 were the first of his career, and this is a player who debuted in 2010. Considering he's rather highly sought-after in drafts because of his speed, Revere very well might not be worth his cost of acquisition.
No. 43: Adam Eaton, OF, Chicago White Sox
Eaton, 26, was better than you thought, batting .300 with 76 runs and 15 steals in just 123 games last year while making two separate trips to the DL (hamstring, oblique). The power wasn't there (just one homer), but Eaton has enough pop (26 doubles, 10 triples) to at least approach double-digit home runs. And with more health, the White Sox's leadoff man could put together a valuable 100-run campaign.
No. 42: Leonys Martin, OF, Texas Rangers
Martin has his fans, those who see him as one with enough of a power-speed combo to be another Starling Marte. That's possible, but Martin simply could be what he is at his age (27 on March 6)—a solid hitter who does enough to matter in all five categories, but who excels only in one. To wit, Martin stole 36 and 31 bases, respectively, in 2013 and 2014, but none of his other numbers were much better than average. If Martin is Marte-ish, he's a poor-man's version.
No. 41: Charlie Blackmon, OF, Colorado Rockies
Blackmon's breakout 2013 was driven very much by a bonkers April and solid May, after which he was batting .315 with 10 homers and steals apiece. He wasn't half-bad the rest of the way, though, hitting .275 with another nine long balls and 18 more stolen bases. Just realize that he's, not surprisingly, waaaay better at Coors Field (.915 career OPS) than on the road (.617), so you may want to start him only at home.
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Nos. 40-36
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No. 40: Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ranking a rookie who isn't a stone-cold lock to make the 25-man roster is always a bit tricky. But Pederson, 22, has the prospect pedigree, minor league numbers (including a 30-30 season at Triple-A in 2014) and the fact that he's the Dodgers' best option in center field on his side. Strikeouts and batting average will be a possible pitfall, but if he gets 500 at-bats, there's 20-20 potential.
No. 39: Wil Myers, OF, San Diego Padres
Myers' sophomore season was a train wreck, from a poor start (.227 BA through May) to missing three months midyear due to wrist surgery that limited him to just 87 total games—or one fewer than he played in his Rookie of the Year-winning 2013.
There are, suddenly, doubts about Myers, especially coming off that kind of season and now having been traded twice in his young career, but he's still only 24 with a former top-prospect pedigree. Moving to Petco Park won't help, but this is a worthwhile gamble for the hopes he can get his career back on track.
No. 38: Denard Span, OF, Washington Nationals
Span was a fantasy nothing for a few years before he turned things around in the middle of last year and wound up hitting .302 with 94 runs and a career-high 31 stolen bases. Don't look for a total repeat, but then, the 31-year-old is once again Washington's leadoff man and heading into his walk year, so he should be backed up by talent and motivated to perform.
No. 37: Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees
While he's still plenty fast, the 31-year-old Gardner is no longer the threat to steal 40 bases that he used to be after thieving 24 and then 21 the past two years. The good news is, he has gradually added some pop to his repertoire to counteract that, resulting in a career-best 17 homers and 58 RBI in 2014. Don't draft him for quite those figures, but Gardner could come close, and he's more or less a lock for 80-plus runs too.
No. 36: Melky Cabrera, OF, Chicago White Sox
Cabrera, 30, had quite the bounce-back year after an injury-plagued 2013. None of his numbers from his four quality categories (.301 BA, 81 R, 16 HR, 73 RBI) is unachievable again, and even though he left a cozy spot hitting second for Toronto, the switch-hitting Cabrera should find a similar situation in Chicago.
Nos. 35-31
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No. 35: Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City Royals
Gordon is sort of the Ben Zobrist of the outfield in that he's a really, really good player in real life, in large part due to his defense, but in fantasy, his value isn't nearly as strong. Sure, he'll approach 20 homers and swipe double-digit bases and compile something close to 75-85 runs and RBI, but the 31-year-old is far from a stud. Consider him a good fourth outfielder or a passable third, but anything more than that is asking too much, especially since he's recovering from offseason wrist surgery too.
No. 34: Kole Calhoun, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Calhoun proved last year that he can be a productive full-time big leaguer, notching 90 runs, 17 homers and 58 RBI with a .272 average despite losing 31 games early in the year to a sprained ankle. With the 27-year-old settled into the top spot in an Angels offense that led the majors in scoring in 2014, Calhoun is primed for an encore.
No. 33: Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox
Here's where we take a little turn in the rankings. Starting with Betts, the 22-year-old who was one of the sport's top prospects a year ago, the next few names are very much high-risk/high-reward youngsters in the nascent stages of their big league careers.
Betts' initial taste of the bigs was a bit of a roller coaster, because of how Boston shuttled him back and forth from the minors after a midseason debut. But once given an everyday role late in the year, the 5'9" spark plug with great plate discipline, plus speed and surprising pop displayed all of his tools, hitting .304 with 28 runs, four homers and six steals over the final 39 games.
If Betts' spot as a starter with the Sox was assured, he might rank 10 places higher here, but because the club has Dustin Pedroia locked in at second and a glut of outfielders (including the next guy), the concern is that he may open 2015 in the minors. If that happens, he gets bumped down 10 notches. Watch this situation closely in spring.
No. 32: Rusney Castillo, OF, Boston Red Sox
In line for the Red Sox's starting center field job, Castillo's toe-dip last September was very brief (10 games) but also promising enough (.333 BA, 2 HR, 3 SB) to show his skill set could translate rather well, both to MLB and fantasy. He's still very much an unknown and a wild card, but given the upside of a 20-20 rookie year and the possibility of hitting atop Boston's beefy lineup, Castillo could offer a huge payoff for those who invest.
No. 31: Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Polanco, 23, was the latest example of why it can be dangerous in fantasy to get too caught up in the hype surrounding top prospects. For one, the Pirates didn't let Polanco debut until June, and then after a blazing beginning, including an 11-game hit streak to start his career, things got so bad (.213 BA in the second half) that he was demoted back to Triple-A for a week in late August.
And yet Polanco still hit seven homers, stole 14 bases, drove in 35 and scored 50 runs—in just half a season. Trust the talent here, and jump back on board this train while the ticket prices are still reasonable.
Nos. 30-26
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No. 30: Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago Cubs
Soler rounds out the run of still-unproven-over-a-full-season youngsters who have all kinds of fantasy upside. He showed as much by smashing a homer in his very first plate appearance in the majors last August, then going on to hit .292 with five homers and 20 RBI in his initial 24 games. The 23-year-old will experience some growing pains, but Soler's offensive potential makes him the top rookie outfielder entering 2015.
No. 29: Marcell Ozuna, OF, Miami Marlins
A target for Soler—albeit one at the very top of his range of possible outcomes in 2015—would be the numbers Ozuna put up in 2014, his first full season: .269 BA, 72 R, 23 HR, 85 RBI. And even though the 24-year-old Ozuna strikes out a bit much (26.7 percent), the bet here is that he bumps his stats up a little now that he knows what is required over 162 games. Plus, the Marlins added some depth to their lineup (i.e., Dee Gordon, Martin Prado, Mike Morse), which only helps.
No. 28: J.D. Martinez, OF, Detroit Tigers
Martinez was a shocking revelation last year, released by the lowly Houston Astros before the season, only to catch on with the Tigers, alter his swing to become more aggressive and hit .315 with 23 homers and 76 RBI in just 123 games. There will be regression, particularly in the 27-year-old's batting average—he won't BABIP .389 again—but Martinez's power looks to be for real, and Detroit's lineup is still a force.
No. 27: Nelson Cruz, OF, Seattle Mariners
Yep, the reigning home run leader doesn't even crack the top 25 fantasy outfielders. What gives? Well, Cruz can't be expected to repeat his career year, which included 40 homers and 108 RBI, especially when he's a 34-year-old with a lengthy injury history. Not to mention, the new Mariner is now hitting half the time at death-to-righty-power-hitters Safeco Field, where he owns a .234 average and just nine homers in 52 career games.
That said, Seattle's lineup is the best it's been in a long time, and Cruz still produces when he plays, so a 25-homer, 75-RBI campaign is a reasonable baseline if he stays healthy.
No. 26: Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Texas Rangers
Choo's first season as a Ranger went much like the rest of the 2014 season for his teammates—disappointing at the outset, then injury-riddled and disastrous by the end. Chalk up his poor showing to being hampered by an elbow injury that dated back to spring training last year and then a sprained ankle in April, both of which were surgically repaired by season's end.
As such, the 32-year-old is a good bet as a bounce-backer, considering he's a proven 20-20 player who scores loads of runs and can help (or at least not hurt) in batting average. Even at No. 26 overall here, Choo could bring a nice value.
Nos. 25-21
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No. 25: Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Bruce falls very much into the same boat as Shin-Soo Choo, as a player with an established history of performance whose 2014 was wrecked by an early season injury, in this case, surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. Although Bruce surprisingly made it back from the procedure in less than three weeks, he just never looked quite himself in hitting .217 with just 18 homers—both career lows.
Don't forget, though, this is a 27-year-old who had reached the 30-homer, 90-RBI marks in each of his previous three years. A high-strikeout hitter, Bruce will be streaky and probably won't bat much better than .250, but let's not act like his career is over after one down year.
No. 24: Jayson Werth, OF, Washington Nationals
It wasn't a banner offseason for Werth, who actually spent a few days in jail for a 2014 reckless driving arrest and also underwent shoulder surgery in January that could keep him out until shortly after Opening Day. Despite all that, the 35-year-old is coming off two relatively healthy, rather productive seasons in which he topped 80 runs and RBI with strong averages, plenty of homers and enough steals to keep owners happy in all five categories. If Werth's winter issues mean he's gettable at a discounted price, all the better.
No. 23: Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Holliday just keeps hitting. Now 35, he has taken a little longer to get going the past two years, but he always finds a way to get to 20-25 homers, 90 or so RBI and 80-plus runs, thanks in large part to a still-stellar walk rate (11 percent since 2012). Holliday is no longer an OF2, but if you don't mind drafting a "boring" vet and have the patience to stick it out, the reward will be a quality OF3 in the end.
No. 22: Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Ranking a speedster like Hamilton is never easy, because so much of his fantasy value is anchored to one category and one category alone. But the 24-year-old's wheels are such that he was able to pilfer 56 bases—second-most in MLB—despite hitting .250 with a .292 OBP.
Of course, he also was caught 23 times, which is both bad (the most in the league) and oddly promising, because he could improve his success rate and approach 70 steals in 2015. Hamilton, however, needs to make gains at the plate, especially after a heinous second half in which he hit .200 with a .511 OPS. But based on his value added in stolen bases, Hamilton needs to be considered a top-25 outfielder and drafted as one too.
No. 21: Jason Heyward, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Heyward has been in the better-in-real-life-than-in-fantasy bin the past two years since he went for career highs in runs (93), homers (27) and steals (21) in 2012. Maybe it's a hunch or the fact that Heyward is embarking on his walk year or even just a blind faith in the Cardinals' black magic-like ability to get the most out of players, but it simply feels like the 25-year-old is primed for a borderline career year, particularly if he can avoid the slow starts that plagued him in 2013-14.
No. 20: Starling Marte, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .291 BA, 73 R, 13 HR, 56 RBI, 30 SB (545 PA)
It took a while for Starling Marte to get going in 2014, but once he did, he was as hot as anybody else in the sport.
To wit, the 26-year-old hit just .256 with five home runs in the first half. In the second, however, he jumped to .348—the fourth-highest post-break mark in MLB—with eight long balls. Not even a concussion that cost him 12 games almost right out of the gate in the second half could slow him down.
While Marte could use a little more plate discipline to help address his streakiness, he's also posted back-to-back years of double-digit homers and 30-plus stolen bases in his first two full big league seasons. That makes his potential 2015 numbers pretty darn exciting.
No. 19: Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .266 BA, 68 R, 19 HR, 81 RBI, 11 SB (580 PA)
Coming off his dip in production in 2013, which also was cut short by the 65-game suspension as part of MLB's Biogenesis investigation, Ryan Braun's went through another drop last year, as he posted a career-low .777 OPS.
The 31-year-old also was bothered by a chronic thumb injury for which he underwent surgery this offseason in the hopes of fixing it for good.
While Braun's fantasy line up top is still rather good, it's a far cry from his former MVP digits, and now that he's working on the back end of his prime, the best hope that he can recapture a bit more of that is tied to the procedure.
Were that to happen, Braun again could be an OF1, but at this point, he should be drafted as a low-end OF2.
No. 18: Matt Kemp, OF, San Diego Padres
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .287 BA, 77 R, 25 HR, 89 RBI, 8 SB (599 PA)
As much as the excitement over Matt Kemp from fantasy owners' perspectives finally started to return when he went bonkers with a 17-homer second half—third-most in the majors—it has been tempered more than a small amount by the fact that he's now hitting half the time in Petco Park.
The San Diego Padres actually are bringing in the left field fence for 2015, but only by about three feet. That's not enough to alter what has been an outright horror show for fly balls hit by right-handed batters. In fact, Petco's home run park factor by righties is just 81, according to Stat Corner, which means the park suppresses homers from them by 19 percent compared to other stadiums.
So a 20-homer season is doable, but don't bet the over on last year's 25. And considering that the injury-prone Kemp is now 30 and hasn't stolen more than nine bases in three years, that part of his game is unlikely to make a major comeback.
All that said, Kemp still should be a top-20 fantasy outfielder, though, especially because he has had success at Petco (.322 BA, 7 HR, 34 RBI in 59 career games) and the Padres now boast an actual major league lineup.
No. 17: Justin Upton, OF, San Diego Padres
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .270 BA, 77 R, 29 HR, 102 RBI, 8 SB (641 PA)
It's not a coincidence that Justin Upton follows new San Diego Padres teammate Matt Kemp in these rankings. After all, they're both power-hitting righty-swingers who could see their offensive numbers dip or even tumble because of their new home park.
But if you were paying attention just a moment ago, you would have taken away that the Padres do, in fact, sport a big league-caliber lineup for the first time in a few years.
And Upton, like Kemp, does have a knack for hitting the ball a long, long way—the former ranked No. 14 in batted-ball distance, while the latter ranked 10th, according to Baseball Heat Maps—which means they don't have to be swallowed up by Petco.
As for ranking Upton over Kemp, give the edge to a player who is three years younger (27) and a free-agent-to-be playing for a potential nine-figure payday.
No. 16: George Springer, OF, Houston Astros
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .231 BA, 45 R, 20 HR, 51 RBI, 5 SB (345 PA)
Admittedly, George Springer is a very risky player to rank so highly at this deep outfield position. The 25-year-old hit just .231 and struck out 33 percent of the time in his rookie season a year ago. He also missed the final two-and-a-half months with a quad injury that shut him down in mid-July.
That aside, Springer's upside is immense. He smashed 20 homers, scored 45 runs and drove in 51 in just 78 games—less than half a season.
And although he didn't show it in the majors last year, Springer has more than enough speed to steal 20 bases too. He swiped 45 in 2013 and 37 in 2012 in the minors, getting caught just eight times each year.
The batting average may not top .250, but Springer has a chance to be a very unique four-category stud, and the Houston Astros' improving offense will only benefit him.
No. 15: Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Detroit Tigers
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .260 BA, 89 R, 22 HR, 100 RBI, 7 SB (645 PA)
While it would have been fun to watch Yoenis Cespedes take aim at the Green Monster over a full season in Boston, he's in a pretty good situation after being traded to the Detroit Tigers for Rick Porcello over the offseason.
The 29-year-old Cuban slugger may no longer be the 20-20 threat he appeared to be back when he debuted in 2012 and nabbed 16 bases, but Cespedes has hit 22 or more home runs and knocked in 80 or more in all three of his MLB campaigns.
And in 2014, he managed to avoid the nagging pains and pulls that had hampered him, which allowed him to play 152 games and accumulate 89 runs and 100 RBI—all career bests.
Now surrounded by Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler and J.D. Martinez, Cespedes could match last year's totals, perhaps even with a little more, if he can stay healthy.
No. 14: Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .284 BA, 94 R, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 21 SB (660 PA)
Christian Yelich might look a little out of place here in the top 15, but he's already become a five-category contributor who, at 23, has another tick or two left in him.
The former top prospect was an underrated fantasy gem in what was just his first full season in the majors with the Miami Marlins in 2014. While Yelich didn't shine in any one category, he produced in all of 'em and flashed his shiny potential for more too.
New arrival Dee Gordon is likely to hit leadoff even though Yelich and his .365 career OBP is the better choice. But shifting Yelich to the No. 2 hole in front of Giancarlo Stanton, as Christina De Nicola of Fox Sports Florida speculates, certainly isn't going to hurt him any. And if it gives Yelich some more RBI opportunities, he could have the best of both worlds.
Yelich is the kind of promising young player who may not look like an OF2 right now, but by midseason, he'll fit the role just fine.
No. 13: Corey Dickerson, OF, Colorado Rockies
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .312 BA, 74 R, 24 HR, 76 RBI, 8 SB (478 PA)
Corey Dickerson is one of the buzziest fantasy outfielders around after his breakout 2014.
The 25-year-old achieved above-average numbers in four of the five roto categories, and he did so despite getting only 105 starting assignments amid a crowded Colorado Rockies outfield. Imagine, then, what Dickerson will do in 2015, now that he's settled in as the regular left fielder.
Just be aware that the lefty-swinging Dickerson does most of his damage against right-handers (.985 OPS in 2014 versus .724 against LHP) and at home (1.098 OPS compared to .735 on the road). Ah, the wonders of Coors Field.
No. 12: Hunter Pence, OF, San Francisco Giants
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .277 BA, 106 R, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 13 SB (708 PA)
Hunter Pence is as reliable as can be, which is a very underappreciated trait in fantasy circles, especially for a hitter at a time when pitching is dominating the sport.
The 31-year-old has played 154 games in each of his seven full seasons in the big leagues, including all 162 each of the past two years.
Pence is a virtual lock for 20-25 home runs, and while his other totals tend to fluctuate some from year to year, he has a knack for pumping up one category if another one dips a bit. For instance, his stolen base total dropped from 22 in 2013 down to 13 last year, but he offset that by scoring a career-high 106 runs.
It's almost as if Pence makes a point to look out for the fantasy folks.
No. 11: Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .238 BA, 35 R, 11 HR, 38 RBI, 3 SB (281 PA)
Injuries have plagued Carlos Gonzalez for years, but they got the better of him for the first time in a long time last year.
The Colorado Rockies star played a career-low 70 games due to surgery to remove a mass from his hand then another procedure on his knee that ended his season in early August. No wonder the former fantasy first-rounder has dropped a few notches in the rankings.
But don't let CarGo fall too far on draft day. He's still just 29, still calls Coors Field home and had put together four consecutive 20-20 seasons from 2010-13.
If anything, the lost 2014 turns him into a bargain in 2015.
No. 10: Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, New York Yankees
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .271 BA, 71 R, 16 HR, 70 RBI, 39 SB (635 PA)
Jacoby Ellsbury's first season as a New York Yankee was a very big fantasy success.
Sure, the 31-year-old could have hit for a little higher average and somehow scored only 71 runs despite batting first or third in the order most games. But Ellsbury also continued his fine work on the bases, notching 39 steals, and his power spiked some, as many hoped it would at Yankee Stadium, with 16 homers.
While he's never going to approach that freakish 32 long balls from 2011, last year's total was the second-best of his eight-year career.
Another season of 10-15 homers and 30-plus stolen bases should be attainable as long as Ellsbury can stay relatively healthy most of the year.
No. 9: Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .273 BA, 41 R, 13 HR, 32 RBI, 2 SB (395 PA)
This might be as high as you'll see Bryce Harper ranked, especially after he failed to live up to expectations with an injury-marred 2014 in which a torn ligament in his left thumb limited him to just 100 games.
At this point, entering year four, the Harper debate is as divisive as ever, with half the fantasy baseball-playing world just so over him by now...and the other half still eagerly awaiting the explosion that is sure to come.
Guess which camp we're in?
Look, hate on Harper and refuse to draft him if you want. Frankly, if he comes with a third- or even second-round cost of acquisition, we get it—you'd rather not pay such a steep price for someone who hasn't yet earned it and has an injury history, to boot.
But the 22-year-old is too talented not to bust out in a big, big way eventually—he reminded everyone as much by launching three mammoth homers last October—and if you're going to keep passing, then you're also eventually going to miss out on a top-10 fantasy season. Not among outfielders—among all players.
No. 8: Michael Brantley, OF, Cleveland Indians
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .327 BA, 94 R, 20 HR, 97 RBI, 23 SB (676 PA)
Um, where did that come from, Michael Brantley? After four years of relatively innocuous production and being rather irrelevant in fantasy, the 27-year-old busted out with as brilliant a five-category campaign as just about any other player in baseball.
There are doubts about Brantley's ability to pull that off again—yeah, he probably won't be quite that good again—but most of the gains he made in 2014 look to be for real based on the underlying metrics.
Another 20 homers and 97 RBI might be a bit much, but Brantley is a contact-making machine, and he definitely made the most hard contact of his career, thanks to a 25.7 percent line-drive rate.
The Cleveland Indians have an underrated but very solid lineup, so even if Brantley's power comes back a bit, he should be a safe play as a borderline No. 1 outfielder on your roster given his all-around skill set. But if you can pair him with one of these others ahead of him, that would turn him into a super-cozy OF2.
No. 7: Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore Orioles
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .281 BA, 88 R, 29 HR, 96 RBI, 7 SB (682 PA)
Adam Jones swings. Like, a lot. But he knows how to make it work, which he's proved by posting six fantasy starter-worthy seasons in a row, the last four of which have been especially impressive, as he's notched at least a .280 average, 25 homers and 82 RBI in each.
His career high in walks? Try 36, and he registered just 19 free passes in 2014.
The 29-year-old's aggressiveness makes him rather streaky in-season, but from year to year, the production is remarkably consistent. In fact, his swing-at-all-costs approach helps Jones compile the counting stats he does in fantasy, and that is a good thing.
No. 6: Yasiel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .296 BA, 92 R, 16 HR, 69 RBI, 11 SB (640 PA)
There's some risk in placing Yasiel Puig here, ahead of others who have put up louder fantasy statistics. As you can see right above, his 2014 numbers, while very good, don't quite blow you away in any single category.
So this ranking is a little leap of faith that Puig, 24, can continue to progress with the bat in what will be his second full MLB season. That's a good possibility considering that the Los Angeles Dodgers lightning rod looked like a no-doubt MVP candidate in the first half of 2014, when he hit .309 with 53 runs, 12 homers and 52 RBI.
His second half brought a decline, especially in power, as he managed just four home runs and 17 RBI. And in an odd stretch from June 1 through Sept. 15, Puig totaled but two long balls over 85 games—more than half a season. Puig's monthly fly-ball rates didn't change all that much, so there was certainly some bad luck at play there.
If Puig can put together anything close to two halves like his first one, he'll earn this lofty spot in the rankings easily. And with his amount of talent and what he's shown at this age, there's enough to go on that Puig can pull it off.
No. 5: Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .286 BA, 101 R, 35 HR, 103 RBI, 6 SB (673 PA)
Following a pair of injury-shortened seasons in 2012 and 2013, Jose Bautista's stock slipped enough last draft season that he became a big-time bargain—one that paid off in a huge, huge way.
Bautista was a beast once again from the get-go, and he made good on all the lost time the past two years by playing 155 games, the second-most in his career.
Although the Toronto Blue Jays slugger is getting up there in age at 34, he still should be counted on as a steady source of power who will supply more than 30 home runs, health provided. And now that the Jays lineup is even stronger with the additions of Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin, Bautista could have another 100-run, 100-RBI campaign in him.
This is a stud and sure-fire first-round pick around which to build your fantasy offense.
No. 4: Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .284 BA, 95 R, 23 HR, 73 RBI, 34 SB (644 PA)
Carlos Gomez is arguably the most dynamic fantasy player around. The 29-year-old has maintained an elite level of production since his 2012 breakout.
How dynamic? Only one player in all of baseball pulled off the 20-homer, 30-steal season in 2014, and you're reading about him right now. Gomez, in fact, has done that trick two consecutive years now, and it would be three had he hit just one more out in '12.
That's the beauty of Gomez: Getting him in the middle of Round 1 means you can go in just about any direction with your player picking thereafter and feel good about the fact that you already have started to cover all five categories.
Because of that, owning Gomez is both fun and freeing, which is more than we can say about most others. Enjoy!
No. 3: Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .288 BA, 89 R, 37 HR, 105 RBI, 13 SB (638 PA)
Giancarlo Stanton is a monster, but you already have known that for years by now. What he did in 2014, though, was next-level monstrous, and the really crazy thing is, it would have been even more so save for that scary incident last September when he took a fastball to the face, cutting his career year short in a tragic fashion.
Fortunately, the 25-year-old has recovered from the facial fractures and dental work over the offseason. That doesn't mean, though, there aren't some questions and concerns about Stanton's frame of mind as he returns to the batter's box to face major league pitching in games that count again.
The Miami Marlins' new $325 million man's plan is to wear a helmet that provides extra protection over his jaw area, a la Jason Heyward, who was hit in the face in 2013.
"We've worked closely with Giancarlo and the helmet manufacturer," Marlins president of baseball ops Michael Hill said via Christina De Nicola of Fox Sports Florida. "He'll be wearing a cage to protect the injured area. He's worked out with it. There's no issues that will prevent him from being ready and 100 percent for spring training and a productive 2015."
While there hopefully won't be any residual effects, the good news is that Stanton will have had a chance to dig in during spring training to put himself—and fantasy owners—at ease heading into 2015. Assuming all systems are go, Stanton is a definite top-five pick.
No. 2: Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .314 BA, 89 R, 25 HR, 83 RBI, 18 SB (648 PA)
Look, you really shouldn't need anyone to tell you to take Andrew McCutchen very early—like second-pick early—in your fantasy draft.
The Pittsburgh Pirates star's average stats over the past four seasons should be all the evidence necessary to "convince" you: .304 BA, 95 R, 25 HR, 88 RBI, 22 SB.
Again, those are his average digits in the five traditional roto-scoring categories. Oh, and by the way, McCutchen is entering his age-28 campaign. So his prime has, like, barely started.
For fantasy purposes, there is no weakness here, only strength.
No. 1: Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
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2014 Fantasy Stats: .287 BA, 115 R, 36 HR, 111 RBI, 16 SB (705 PA)
As if you were expecting someone else, right?
Mike Trout has rightfully earned the top spot, not only among fantasy outfielders but among all players. He is the No. 1 overall choice in drafts, and don't try to get cute about it.
The 23-year-old—yes, still just 23—is a force in all five categories. And even if his stolen base totals have dropped from 49 to 33 to 16, he's still going to reach double digits with ease, and it really wouldn't be surprising at all if he jumped back up to the 20-steal plateau.
There are a select few who will hem and haw over Trout's strikeout rate jumping to 26.1 percent—his 184 whiffs actually led the AL—but we've seen him make adjustments already. If anything, he might be even better in 2015 because there's still room for Trout to improve.
And even with all those strikeouts, consider this: Just seven players totaled 100-plus runs last year, and only 12 reached 100 RBI. Trout was one of only three to get to the century mark in both—Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista were the other two—and he did it with 15 runs and 11 RBI to spare too.
So if you have the top choice, know that it really isn't one. It's Trout.
Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
Need more fantasy baseball help? Have a comment about the rankings? Come pepper me with your questions on Twitter today at 2 p.m. ET: @JayCat11
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