MLB's 10 Most Valuable Free Agents Still on the Market
The MLB free-agent market now consists of Max Scherzer, James Shields and everyone else. But beyond Scherzer and Shields, there are still a handful of valuable players to be had. And as the market gets thinner, those assets will only become increasingly valuable as teams try to fill their remaining roster voids.
What follows is a list of the 10 most valuable free agents still available, based not only on projected 2015 performance but also on the current market at a given position. Colby Rasmus, for example, just became more valuable on Friday after Nori Aoki signed with the Giants, according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Here's a look at the 10 free agents who will be most highly coveted in the weeks leading up to spring training.
No. 10: C Geovany Soto
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Soto earns a spot on this list in part because he is a solid defensive catcher and a respectable hitter—but also because he's the only remaining free-agent catcher with the potential to play regularly.
Russell Martin got big money from the Blue Jays, while A.J. Pierzynski and Nick Hundley found new homes with the Braves and Rockies, respectively. Beyond that, there aren't many legitimate backstops to be had.
Soto has appeared in just 78 games over the past two seasons due to injuries, but his late-2014 performance—particularly after being traded from the Rangers to the A's—suggested he's got something left in the tank. He threw out 9 of 17 attempted base stealers, delivered some big hits and was popular with the pitching staff during his brief stint in Oakland.
For his career, Soto has a .770 OPS, including .858 against lefties. He turns 32 on Tuesday and is a far cry from the player who won Rookie of the Year with the Cubs in 2008. But he could still be a valuable asset, if not quite a full-time catcher, for a team in need.
No. 9: 2B Hector Olivera
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Olivera defected from Cuba in September with plans of signing with an MLB team. On Jan. 21 and 22, the second baseman will hold a showcase at the Giants' academy in the Dominican Republic, according to Ben Badler at Baseball America.
Badler rated Olivera as the No. 6 (subscription required) player still in Cuba. The 29-year-old has impressive pop and speed, scouts say, and Craig Goldstein at SB Nation notes that he hit .316/.412/.474 with seven homers and had more walks than strikeouts last season.
Olivera's health is a concern—he missed the entire 2012-13 season due to a blood disorder—so his fate may largely depend on how he looks at the showcase next week. It will also depend, of course, on when he's able to get cleared by the Office of Foreign Assets Control.
Rickie Weeks, Gordon Beckham and Kelly Johnson are still free agents, but there's reason to believe that Olivera would blow them all out of the water, albeit at a higher cost.
There's also an even more talented Cuban second baseman out there in Jose Fernandez—but more on that in a bit.
No. 8: RP Casey Janssen
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We've arrived at the relief pitcher portion of the program. Three potential closers are still available, starting with Casey Janssen.
From 2011-13, Janssen was an elite reliever and earned a reputation as a reliable closer. In those three seasons, he posted an ERA of 2.46, a 0.98 WHIP and a 4.47 K/BB ratio.
Something changed in the second half of 2014, when his ERA was 6.46 and, as Jeff Passan at Yahoo Sports notes, his ground-ball rate dipped to 34.4 percent, 13 percent below his career average. His strikeout rate also plummeted.
One possible explanation for Janssen's poor second-half performance is an ugly bout of food poisoning in late August. Around that time is when his struggles reached a fever pitch.
Because he faltered last year, Janssen could potentially be had for less money than he's worth. If the food poisoning really did hurt him, then he could be his old self again in 2015.
No. 7: RP Rafael Soriano
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Rafael Soriano saved 32 games for the Nationals last season but lost the job to Drew Storen down the stretch. He blew five of his last 15 save chances before Storen took over.
The right-hander boasts an impressive resume that includes 207 career saves, a 2.85 ERA and a 3.25 K/BB ratio. But he recently turned 35, and the Nats declined to pick up his 2015 option worth $14 million.
There are better bets for teams in need of a closer (see next slide), but if Soriano can work past the dead-arm issues that plagued him late last season, he should still have a couple of good years left in the tank. And even if he's not signed as a closer, he could take on a closer's role if necessary—which would make him a bargain buy.
"A classic will-sign-somewhere-as-an-eighth-inning-guy-and-have-the-closer’s-job-by-May situation," writes Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan.
No. 6: RP Francisco Rodriguez
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Unlike Soriano and Janssen, K-Rod is coming off an excellent 2014 campaign in which he saved 44 games for Milwaukee and made the All-Star team for the first time in five years. Of course, he'll also demand more money than Soriano and Janssen will.
It was just two years ago that Rodriguez joined the Brewers on a minor league contract after a lackluster 2012. But over the past two seasons, he's pitched his way back into the closer's role and looked more like the Frankie of old, posting a 2.90 ERA and a 3.97 K/BB rate.
Still, he did sputter a bit after a flawless first five weeks of 2014, allowing 23 runs over his final 50 appearances.
One team potentially interested, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, is the Blue Jays:
"k-rod is on jays radar, though toronto trying to trade for a closer first
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 29, 2014"
No. 5: 2B Jose Fernandez
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Fernandez, a left-handed hitting second baseman, is ranked by Baseball America as the No. 3 player still in Cuba. Ben Badler says he's even better than Rusney Castillo—whom the Red Sox signed for seven years and $72 million—and Yasmany Tomas, who signed with the D-backs for six years and $68 million.
Teams should be lining up to bid for the 26-year-old on-base machine, especially given the limited depth around the league at middle infield.
The question is: Where is he? Linda Robertson of the Miami Herald wrote of the situation last month:
""[Fernandez] and catcher Lazaro Herrera, his cousin and teammate on Matanzas, have not played in two months and did not accompany the national team to the recent Central American and Caribbean Games. [Cuban baseball journalist Peter] Bjarkman has heard from other players that they were caught trying to defect and have been suspended and detained."
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According to Badler, "several teams told Baseball America they are under the impression that Fernandez and Herrera are still in Cuba."
If Fernandez was caught attempting to defect, then it could be a while before he makes it out of Cuba. If and when he does, though, he'll become far and away the best available second baseman.
No. 4: SP Ryan Vogelsong
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Vogelsong is by no means an ace, but he's the best available starting pitcher not named Scherzer or Shields. Right now, that makes him a very hot commodity:
"#Rockies have had talks with free-agent starter Ryan Vogelsong, source says. They are pursuing a RHP for rotation. @FOXSports
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) January 12, 2015"
"#Astros still could add back-of-the-rotation starter, someone like Kyle Kendrick or Ryan Vogelsong. Both still on free-agent market.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 14, 2015"
In three of the past four seasons, Vogelsong has logged at least 179 innings, made at least 28 starts and posted an ERA of 4.00 or below. He's also seen postseason success: 3-0 with a 2.92 ERA in 37 October innings.
At 37 years old, the question is whether he's still got another decent year left. Plenty of teams in need of one more starter will be willing to bet that he does.
No. 3: OF Colby Rasmus
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In the wake of Nori Aoki signing a one-year deal with the Giants on Friday, Rasmus is now the best free-agent outfielder by a mile. The drop from Rasmus to guys like Jonny Gomes, Ichiro Suzuki and Ryan Ludwick is substantial.
Whether a team wants to give Rasmus a raise over the $7 million he made last year—as Eduardo Encina of The Baltimore Sun reports he is seeking—is a bit of a different story:
"Colby Rasmus seeking 1-yr deal for more than the $7M he made in 2014, per source. That's more than #Orioles are willing to give right now.
— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) January 15, 2015"
Rasmus regressed in 2014, batting .225 while striking out at an alarming rate. He was excellent in 2010 and 2013; his other three seasons have been underwhelming.
Still, Rasmus has hit at least 18 homers and 20 doubles in each of the past three seasons, and teams have to be wondering if he can bust out during his age-28 season.
In addition to the Orioles, the Rays have expressed interest, according to Jon Morosi of Fox Sports.
No. 2: SP James Shields
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Maybe he's not "Big Game James." Maybe he's not a bona fide ace. But for the last four seasons, James Shields has been a guy any team would be thrilled to have.
Jeff Passan provides the rundown of what you should and should not expect from Shields:
"Here’s what you get: 220-plus innings. Here’s what you don’t: an ace, like Scherzer or [Jon] Lester. Here’s what you get: incredible clubhouse presence, the sort that legitimately makes the working environment better and happier. Here’s what you don’t: the changeup that once defined his arsenal, ditched for a cutter-heavy approach. Here’s what you get: fastball velocity going up, the opposite direction for a ... 33-year-old. Here’s what you don’t: any clue as to how an arm approaching 2,000 regular-season innings will stand up deep into its 30s.
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Shields has made at least 31 starts in eight straight seasons and at least 33 in seven straight. He's recorded at least 180 strikeouts for five consecutive years.
His postseason numbers, however, are becoming a concern: a 5.46 ERA in 59.1 innings. And, as Passan mentions, he's got a ton of mileage on his 33-year-old arm.
Who wants him? The market still seems to be moving slowly, as Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors noted Saturday. But surely, some team in need of a respectable No. 1 or a great No. 2 will snatch him up eventually.
No. 1: SP Max Scherzer
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It's past the midway point in January and we still have no idea where this offseason's top free agent, Max Scherzer, is going to land. Given that he's a Scott Boras client and reportedly wants $200 million, that should come as no surprise:
"Max Scherzer is seeking a guarantee of more than $200 million, which only one pitcher (Clayton Kershaw) has achieved in MLB history.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 10, 2014"
Scherzer turned down $144 million guaranteed from the Tigers in spring training, a bold move for sure, but one he backed up with a fantastic 2014: 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA, 252 strikeouts and a 2.85 FIP (fielding independent pitching).
Boras has made sure to emphasize to potential suitors that Scherzer is not only the most talented pitcher in this free-agent class, but he also has a fresher arm than James Shields or Jon Lester. According to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, Boras presented teams with an info packet on Scherzer that included this nugget:
OK—but $200 million? So far, there's been very little interest, at least publicly. Would the Tigers take him back? Would the Yankees pony up? Would the Cardinals take the leap?
In spite of the peculiar radio silence surrounding Scherzer, it's worth betting that, in the end, he and Boras will get what they came for.
