Early 2015 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers to Keep on Your Radar
Congratulations, it's officially close enough to MLB's Opening Day to start studying for fantasy baseball drafts without feeling like a weirdo.
Well, probably. This is coming from someone sifting through numbers since October. Either way, everyone is collectively opening the doors to their fantasy baseball preparation. Slowly but surely, rankings and mock drafts will emerge, and your time will be consumed.
With any preseason prep comes sleepers. Not everyone can agree on what defines one, but who doesn't love identifying unheralded gems?
To get back into the swing of things, none of these 10 players is super-deep lottery tickets. Chances are serious researchers will get sick of seeing some of these guys routinely touted before draft day rolls around.
These picks are tailored for standard mixed-league gamers who are careening back into baseball mode after closing shop on their fantasy football squads. Not everyone can dive into the cold water after a long winter of inactivity.
Just in case these guys are not on your radar yet, remember their names when assembling preliminary cheat sheets for 2015 drafts.
Travis d'Arnaud, C, New York Mets
1 of 10
When top prospects finally get a big league promotion, everyone expects immediate results. Hearing for years about how a future superstar will obliterate the majors, the inevitable transition period produces a giant letdown.
Travis d'Arnaud did nothing with 2013's late-season trial run, and he carried over those minimal gains into his official rookie campaign. Hitting .180 with three home runs, his mighty struggles compelled the New York Mets to demote him back to the minors.
A different d'Arnaud returned, batting .272 with 10 homers and an .805 OPS. After the All-Star break, the 25-year-old wielded a .474 slugging percentage, fourth among catchers with at least 150 plate appearances.
Mets manager Terry Collins talked about d'Arnaud's promise at the plate finally materializing, per MLB.com's Anthony DiComo:
"The one thing that was always tied to this guy was his offensive potential. We saw it. It's no longer potential. It's legit. So going into this winter, we know we've got a guy who can be in the middle of your lineup playing one of the toughest positions -- if not the toughest position in the game -- and do both well.
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Fantasy managers won't benefit from his pitch-framing, but the young catcher brings tantalizing power upside to the table. Although catcher isn't a barren wasteland this year, d'Arnaud's 20-homer capability makes him a great late-round option for those who'd rather wait out the position.
Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
2 of 10
Power is hard to find this year, and Mark Trumbo offers plenty to spare. Last year's injury-shortened season could make the slugger a steal in 2015 drafts.
After playing all but three games in 2013, a left foot injury limited Trumbo to just 88 last season. That time on the diamond was hardly exemplary, as he recorded a career-low .415 slugging percentage with a 91 weighted runs created plus (wRC+), a measure of offensive efficiency scaled so that 100 signifies an average hitter.
He still, however, clubbed 14 home runs. Failing to rediscover his power following a two-month hiatus, he turned the switch on with six September deep flies.
Sure, he hit only .235, and his .293 on-base percentage and poor defense make him more of a liability than an asset for Arizona. As for fantasy owners, we'll stomach the poor average for someone who belted 95 long balls from 2011-13.
For all his flaws, Trumbo remains a viable 30-homer threat. See if he slips through the cracks after an underwhelming and incomplete season.
J.J. Hardy, SS, Baltimore Orioles
3 of 10
J.J. Hardy doesn't belong with the other offensive sleepers on the list, all of whom are either returning from injury or embarking on a promising future.
The 32-year-old shortstop logged 569 plate appearances, but he simply stunk from a fantasy perspective.
Respecting his stellar defense, the Baltimore Orioles extended their veteran despite hitting .268/.309/.372 with nine home runs. The vanished power is the real kicker for his fake owners, who signed up for a guy coming off a 25-homer campaign.
Although power is not everlasting, it's fishy to bottom out after three seasons of consistent pop during which no shortstop delivered more homers. No significant injury impeded his production, and his other underlying numbers didn't budge nearly as much.
His fly-ball percentage (37.6) dropped only 1.0 percent from his career norm, yet only 5.6 percent of them cleared the fences. For someone with a 10.8 percent career mark, that's a low clip due for a course correction in 2015.
Trust the track record and bank on Hardy at least returning to a steady 15-20 base-clearers. While not the flashiest pick, he'll deliver as an impact middle infielder.
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Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox
4 of 10
It's going to be interesting monitoring Mookie Betts' draft stock. While he appears on the sleeper list for now, his value will likely skyrocket during the spring.
The Boston Red Sox outfielder has everything you want in a rising star. Just 22 years old, he astounded with a .291/.368/.444 slash line for Boston. Through those 52 games in The Show, he collected five homers and seven steals, adding to the 11 long balls and 33 steals he accumulated in the minors.
The youngster knows what he's doing at the plate, generating a 9.9 walk percentage and 14.6 strikeout percentage that don't diverge from his minor league habits. This isn't a free-swinging kid who's going to flame out and find himself demoted by July.
It's easy to prorate his numbers over a full year and anticipate a 15/25 performance, the likes of which would make him an immediate fantasy fiend in Boston's replenished lineup. Yet that simple exercise may torpedo his value until he becomes the "sleeper" somebody is grabbing during the seventh round.
His floor isn't as low as a Javier Baez, but it's naive to assume Betts is a lock to immediately realize his star ceiling. If he hangs around as a No. 3 outfielder, he's worth the investment. In leagues where he holds second-base eligibility—he played 14 games there last year—he's even more intriguing.
Steven Souza, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
5 of 10
The Tampa Bay Rays obviously like Steven Souza. Two years after poaching mega-prospect Wil Myers from the Kansas City Royals, they pawned him off in a three-team deal with Souza serving as their biggest return.
Tampa Bay's new outfielder has had only 26 major league plate appearances, but the 25-year-old is still Myers' elder by one year. Most remembered for helping Jordan Zimmermann secure a no-hitter, he recorded just three hits (two sent over the fences) during the short sampling.
So why do Tampa Bay and I like him? Simple: He offers power and speed. Despite struggling in a brief MLB cup of coffee, Souza hit .350/.432/.590 in Triple-A with 18 homers and 26 stolen bases. The previous year, he tallied 16 dingers and 32 steals.
Brandishing a 12.8 walk percentage in Triple-A, his keen batting eye will yield him more opportunities to swipe bags and score runs. With Ben Zobrist gone, he could quickly work his way up the batting order.
The stealth 15/15 threat will cost pennies on draft day. Never a highly regarded prospect, he won't generate the same buzz that Myers would with those same stats down at the farm. Take advantage and secure the rookie with a bench slot.
Drew Smyly, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
6 of 10
Remember when the public scoffed at how little the Rays got back for David Price? After arriving in Florida, Drew Smyly submitted a 1.70 ERA and 0.76 WHIP through seven starts for his new club.
His late-season surge began before the deadline deal; the 25-year-old southpaw compiled a 2.20 ERA and 8.68 strikeouts per nine innings after the All-Star break. Moving away from the Detroit Tigers' pennant push also allowed him extra rest, as his new employer shut him down during September.
After spending 2013 in the bullpen, Smyly gradually looked more comfortable in an expanded role. He pitched more than six innings in two games before the break and five after, averaging 6.8 frames per start with the Rays. Drafters don't need to fret any more innings restrictions in 2015.
He won't sustain that ace production over a full campaign, but he's a strong candidate to finish 2015 as a top-50 starter, which is better than it sounds considering the glutton of high-quality arms. With a 90 mph fastball and no superstar pedigree from his developmental days, Smyly can easily get lost in the sea of gaudy young talent.
Even without Price, Tampa Bay still boasts a vicious young rotation, all of whom need to be on fantasy gamers' radar. That's right: One more Rays sleeper is coming up.
Jake Odorizzi, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
7 of 10
Jake Odorizzi certainly possesses his flaws, but anybody who posts over a punchout per inning as a rookie deserves serious attention.
His 9.32 K/9 could not save him from a 4.15 ERA. While his 3.75 fielding independent pitching (FIP) is more flattering, even that isn't enough to make him an attractive mixed-league mainstay. But strikeouts. So many strikeouts.
Usually such power arms are coupled with poor control, a la Ubaldo Jimenez or Francisco Liriano. Odorizzi, however, kept his walk rate in line with 3.16 free passes per nine frames. He cut that rate to 2.69 after the All-Star break, albeit at the expense of strikeouts (7.79 K/9).
For someone with the second-highest fly-ball percentage among qualified starters, his 20 home runs allowed does not call for a regression. If anything, he's lucky not to have relinquished more, which exists as a distinct possibility for 2015.
But...strikeouts. Pitchers can't stop a ground ball from slipping past the infield, but they can take matters into their own hands by sending batters swinging. Outside of Odorizzi and Liriano—whose dastardly 4.49 BB/9 and erratic past limit him to mid-level fodder—every pitcher with a K/9 over 9.00 is a fantasy ace.
There are far too many promising pitchers out there to waste time on the mundane. Don't bother filling out a roster spot with John Lackey or Matt Garza when you can instead play the lottery on Odorizzi.
Danny Salazar, SP, Cleveland Indians
8 of 10
Nope, I'm not giving up on Danny Salazar, and you can't make me.
Loving the electric young righty was essentially a precursor for publishing any predraft analysis last year. Before Opening Day rolled around, he vaulted from sleeper to top-25 starter with Cy Young upside instead realized by teammate Corey Kluber.
Sure, his 4.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP made him nothing more than an occasional streamer. His struggles even dipped him back down the minors a year after recording a 3.12 ERA and 11.25 K/9 rate through 10 MLB starts.
Other than the ERA and WHIP, however, Salazar's numbers remained outstanding in 2014. While his strikeout rate naturally dropped, the 25-year-old still netted a remarkable 9.82 K/9 with a firm 2.86 BB/9 rate. That earned him a 3.52 FIP.
While he endured some hard-hit contact with a 23.4 line-drive percentage, that mark represents improvement from his breakout 2013. It's not enough to justify a bloated .343 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), the fifth-highest mark among starters who hurled at least 100 innings.
If Salazar carries over his stellar strikeout and walk tendencies to 2015, drafters will get something closer to what they expected last year. This time, they'll get it at a more reasonable draft position.
Phil Hughes, SP, Minnesota Twins
9 of 10
Sixteen walks. In 32 starts and 209.2 innings, Phil Hughes walked 16 batters.
Granted, most leagues don't quantify walks, but it factors into WHIP. In his first year with the Minnesota Twins, he registered a 1.14 WHIP despite allowing 221 hits. Just imagine what he can do with a BABIP lower than .324.
For those with no imagination, look at his second-half splits. With a .300 BABIP, the 28-year-old authored a 2.97 ERA and 1.02 WHIP along with a 7.98 K/9 rate virtually identical to his first-half mark.
Not only was Hughes' 11.63 K/BB rate eons ahead of everyone else—Clayton Kershaw placed second at 7.71—it set a single-season record. That gave him an elite 2.65 FIP, but his 3.52 ERA didn't match.
If he continues to display otherworldly control with above-average strikeout numbers, he'll post a better ERA. As anticipated, escaping Yankee Stadium dipped his homer tally to 16 after averaging 28 per season over the past three years with the New York Yankees.
Even if you get last year's Hughes, that's not bad. Oddly enough, he soared on the road (2.78 ERA) yet struggled at pitching-friendly Target Field (4.25), but normalizing those home struggles will either make him an upper-echelon matchup play or viable rotation anchor.
Joaquin Benoit, RP, San Diego Padres
10 of 10
At first, including Joaquin Benoit as a sleeper felt like cheating. With Huston Street no longer around, the veteran holds a firm grip on the San Diego Padres' closing gig. He's an elite relief pitcher any way you slice it, and now he gets Petco Park and save opportunities.
Not much of a secret, but based on preliminary rankings he remains undervalued.
ESPN.com's Tristan H. Cockcroft ranks Benoit No. 22 among eligible relievers—including starters Alex Wood and Carlos Carrasco—behind unsigned free-agent Francisco Rodriguez. FakeTeams.com's Ray Guilfoyle rates him the No. 19 closer behind Street, Drew Storen and Hector Rondon.
It's still early, but if leaguemates share that appraisal, target Benoit as a low-end No. 1 or high-end No. 2 stopper. He belongs with Cody Allen, Steve Cishek, Jonathan Papelbon, Glen Perkins, Koji Uehara and Jake McGee in the No. 9-15 tier of worthy, affordable targets.
Over the last five years, the 37-year-old has netted a 2.35 ERA with 10.30 strikeouts and 2.47 walks per nine innings. As sharp as ever, he generated a career-high 17.8 swinging-strike percentage last season while exploiting the spacious Petco Park with a 0.84 home ERA.
After dominating for years as a setup man, he squashed the tired "proven closer" premise by seamlessly transitioning into the ninth inning. During 2013, he notched a 2.01 ERA and 24 saves, so don't bother using that as an excuse to ignore the superior pitcher who now has the needed role to illicit fantasy recognition.
Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.
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