2016 MLB Free Agents: An Early Look at the Best Available Players Next Winter
The 2015 MLB offseason is pushing toward its conclusion, with pitchers and catchers set to report to spring training in roughly a month, and we've seen more activity this offseason than any in recent memory.
Top starting pitchers Max Scherzer and James Shields highlight what is left of a free-agent crop that also includes Nori Aoki, Colby Rasmus, Jonny Gomes, Rickie Weeks, Everth Cabrera, Ryan Vogelsong, Francisco Rodriguez, Casey Janssen and Rafael Soriano.
So while there are still some significant moves to be made this winter, it's never too early to start looking ahead to next offseason and what could potentially be one of the deepest free-agent classes in years.
What follows is a look at the top 25 players potentially hitting the open market next offseason, ranked based on their age, expected production and the contract they are likely to receive on the open market.
Not all of these guys will hit free agency, as it's fair to assume at least a few will be extended by their current teams before next offseason, but this gives you an idea of the kind of talent expected to be available heading into the 2016 season.
*Note: "2016 Season Age" refers to a player's age on June 30 of the 2016 season.
*Players with team options were not included in these rankings. Zack Greinke was also not included, though he has the right to opt out of the final three years of his current contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Other Notable Free Agents: Position Players
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Catchers
Alex Avila
Chris Iannetta
John Jaso
Dioner Navarro
A.J. Pierzynski
Corner Infielders
David Freese
Garrett Jones
Adam Lind
Casey McGehee
Aramis Ramirez
Juan Uribe
Middle Infielders
Mike Aviles
Asdrubal Cabrera
Stephen Drew
Cliff Pennington
Jimmy Rollins
Outfielders
Rajai Davis
Chris Denorfia
Torii Hunter
Matt Joyce
Gerardo Parra
Steve Pearce
Will Venable
Shane Victorino
Other Notable Free Agents: Pitchers
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Starters
Mark Buehrle (L)
A.J. Burnett
Jhoulys Chacin
Bartolo Colon
J.A. Happ (L)
Aaron Harang
Tim Hudson
John Lackey
Mike Leake
Tim Lincecum
Kyle Lohse
Justin Masterson
Brandon Morrow
Bud Norris
Mike Pelfrey
Alfredo Simon
Relievers
Jeremy Affeldt (L)
Antonio Bastardo (L)
Jerry Blevins (L)
Randy Choate
Tyler Clippard
Brian Duensing (L)
Neftali Feliz
David Hernandez
Tommy Hunter
Jim Johnson
Shawn Kelley
Edward Mujica
Darren O'Day
Josh Outman (L)
Bobby Parnell
Manny Parra (L)
Oliver Perez (L)
Fernando Rodney
James Russell (L)
Tony Sipp (L)
Joakim Soria
Tim Stauffer
Matt Thornton (L)
Ryan Webb
Wesley Wright (L)
25. 1B Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles
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2014 Stats
| 127 | .196/.300/.404 | 88 | 16 | 26 | 72 | 65 | 2 | 1.8 |
2016 Season Age: 30
Free-Agency Outlook
It's a shame for his sake that Chris Davis didn't hit free agency after his monster 2013 campaign, as he almost certainly would have seen a payday north of $100 million last offseason.
Instead, he took a huge step backward in 2014 and capped off his disappointing season with a 25-game suspension for using Adderall without league approval. For what it's worth, he has received an exemption for the upcoming season, according to Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun, but it was a rough way to finish nonetheless.
Chances are he will never repeat his 53-homer, 103-RBI performance again, but he's capable of more than he showed last year, and landing somewhere around his 2012 numbers of an .827 OPS and 33 home runs is certainly possible.
If Davis can rebound to that level of production, a big payday could still be waiting, and he would climb up these rankings. For now, until he proves he's back, the No. 25 spot is where he stands.
24. SP Wei-Yin Chen, Baltimore Orioles
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2014 Stats
| 31 | 16-6 | 3.54 | 3.89 | 1.288 | 35 | 136 | 185.2 | 1.8 |
2016 Season Age: 31
Free-Agency Outlook
The Baltimore Orioles took a chance on Wei-Yin Chen when they signed the left-hander to a three-year, $11.388 million deal after an impressive four-year run with the Chunichi Dragons of the Japanese League.
The contract also included a $4.75 million option for the 2015 season, and that wound up being an absolute steal after Chen turned in a breakout season this past year.
The 16 wins are a bit deceiving, and his 3.89 FIP last season is probably a better indication of what can be expected out of the 29-year-old moving forward, but that is still solid production for the price.
With just 1,166 pro innings under his belt, and given the fact that he is by no means a power pitcher, Chen should have at least a handful of productive seasons left in him.
He won't break the bank, but he should be able to land a multi-year deal and a sizable raise, and he could wind up being one of the more attractive mid-level options on the market next offseason if the Orioles let him walk.
23. 1B Mike Napoli, Boston Red Sox
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2014 Stats
| 119 | .248/.370/.419 | 103 | 20 | 17 | 55 | 49 | 3 | 3.2 |
2016 Season Age: 34
Free-Agency Outlook
Injuries limited Mike Napoli to just 119 games last season, but he still managed to post a 3.2 WAR to rank 10th among first basemen, and he's been good for a 7.4 WAR in his two seasons with the Boston Red Sox.
His on-base skills and solid power make him an attractive offensive option, and while his catching days are behind him, he has been a surprisingly good defender at first base, with 17 defensive runs saved over the last two years, according to FanGraphs.
It's worth noting that Napoli has never tallied 500 at-bats in a season, and he memorably failed his physical with the Red Sox prior to the 2013 season, so there is an injury history to be taken into account.
He'll join Chris Davis, Adam Lind and Garrett Jones to make up the first base market, and he could wind up being the most attractive option of the bunch if he can turn in a healthy and productive season.
22. 2B Daniel Murphy, New York Mets
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2014 Stats
| 143 | .289/.332/.403 | 172 | 37 | 9 | 57 | 79 | 13 | 2.0 |
2016 Season Age: 31
Free-Agency Outlook
Over the past three seasons, Daniel Murphy ranks eighth in the league with 526 hits, and his steady production was rewarded with an All-Star appearance in 2014.
He's always going to be a below-average defender at second base, as it is not his natural position, but he has improved to at least a passable level, and his plus offense compared to others at the position helps offset his glove.
The second base market could wind up being deeper than it was in recent years, with Howie Kendrick and Ben Zobrist also potentially available, but Murphy should still be able to find a nice multiyear deal.
The New York Mets have a potential replacement for him in 20-year-old Dilson Herrera, who made his debut last season, so there is a good chance Murphy winds up hitting the open market.
21. SP Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners
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2014 Stats
| 28 | 15-9 | 3.52 | 3.25 | 1.050 | 21 | 154 | 179.0 | 2.5 |
2016 Season Age: 35
Free-Agency Outlook
Hisashi Iwakuma may seem to be ranked a bit low at first blush, but it's important to remember that he was already 31 years old when he made his way over from Japan, and he will be entering his age-35 season when he hits free agency next winter.
The way he finished the 2014 season was also a bit concerning, as he had a 7.88 ERA over his final seven starts, seemingly hitting a wall when the Seattle Mariners needed him most.
That being said, it's still been more good than bad in his three big league seasons, as he's gone 38-20 with a 3.07 ERA in 524 innings of work.
He will likely have to settle for a two-year deal, whether it's re-upping with the Mariners or taking his talents elsewhere, but plenty of teams will be interested in the 2013 AL Cy Young candidate.
As long as his splitter keeps splitting, there is no reason to think he can't be successful into his late-30s, much like his fellow countryman, Hiroki Kuroda.
20. RP Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels
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2014 Stats
| 61 | 2-2 | 41-of-44 | 1.37 | 0.944 | 2.1 | 8.6 | 2.7 |
2016 Season Age: 32
Free-Agency Outlook
The price of good relief pitching continues to climb, and the top bullpen arm on the market next offseason will be closer Huston Street.
Since winning AL Rookie of the Year honors back in 2005, Street has piled up 275 career saves (fifth among active players) and is coming off what by all accounts was the best season of his 10-year career.
Fernando Rodney, Joakim Soria and All-Star setup man Tyler Clippard headline the rest of the reliever market, but for teams looking to add a shutdown arm in the ninth inning, Street will be a hot commodity.
Given his track record and the fact that he's still in the prime of his career, Street should be able to land something in the neighborhood of the four-year, $46 million deal that David Robertson signed as the top closer on the market this offseason.
19. CF Austin Jackson, Seattle Mariners
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2014 Stats
| 154 | .256/.308/.347 | 153 | 30 | 4 | 47 | 71 | 20 | 1.7 |
2016 Season Age: 29
Free-Agency Outlook
Traded as part of the David Price trade deadline blockbuster, Austin Jackson struggled mightily post-trade, as he had a .527 OPS and failed to homer in 223 at-bats after joining the Seattle Mariners.
By all accounts, the 2014 season was the worst of his career, and he will need to rebound if he hopes to cash in on the free-agent market. But the talent is there for him to once again be a star.
He showed what he was capable of during the 2012 season, when he posted an .856 OPS with 55 extra-base hits and 103 runs scored on his way to a 5.4 WAR.
A return to that sort of production would mean a ton of money over a four- or five-year deal, while another season of struggles could put him in a position that's similar to the one Colby Rasmus is in this offseason.
18. 2B Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2014 Stats
| 157 | .293/.347/.397 | 181 | 33 | 7 | 75 | 85 | 14 | 5.4 |
2016 Season Age: 32
Free-Agency Outlook
Since stepping into an everyday role for the first time in 2010, Howie Kendrick ranks sixth among all second basemen with a combined 18.7 WAR, and that includes a career-high 5.4 WAR this past season.
The Los Angeles Angels shipped Kendrick to the Los Angeles Dodgers this offseason in exchange for top pitching prospect Andrew Heaney, and he will join another upcoming free agent in Jimmy Rollins to form the team's new double play combination.
While he has never been a superstar, Kendrick has been a model of consistency both offensively and defensively throughout his career, and that will make him an attractive target for teams looking to upgrade at second.
Kendrick is entering the final year of a four-year, $33.5 million deal in 2015, and he will earn $9.5 million during the upcoming season.
A similar contract in free agency is not out of the realm of possibility, considering Omar Infante landed a four-year, $30.25 million deal entering his age-32 season last winter.
17. CF Dexter Fowler, Houston Astros
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2014 Stats
| 116 | .276/.375/.399 | 120 | 21 | 8 | 35 | 61 | 11 | 1.8 |
2016 Season Age: 30
Free-Agency Outlook
Drastic home/road splits during his time with the Colorado Rockies raised some legitimate questions as to just how good Dexter Fowler was heading into the 2014 season, but a solid first season with the Houston Astros put those doubts to rest.
Fowler spent a good chunk of last season hitting in the middle of the Astros lineup, but he profiles best as a table-setter thanks to his plus speed and terrific on-base skills.
He's never been a great defensive outfielder, but he was a borderline liability last season with a minus-36.2 UZR/150 and minus-20 DRS, according to FanGraphs, so that hurts his value a bit.
The 2015 season will be a big one for both Fowler and Austin Jackson, as they are the top two center field options on the market, and a big contract year for either guy could mean significantly more money.
16. SP Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics
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2014 Stats
| 32 | 15-9 | 3.55 | 3.35 | 1.161 | 50 | 164 | 190.1 | 1.7 |
2016 Season Age: 32
Free-Agency Outlook
It's been quite a journey for Scott Kazmir.
One of the best young pitchers in the game during his time with the Tampa Bay Rays, his career came to a screeching halt after a rough 2010 season, and by 2012, he was putting up subpar numbers for the Sugar Land Skeeters in the independent league.
The Cleveland Indians gave him a shot in 2013 on a minor league deal, and he turned that into a two-year, $22 million contract from the Oakland Athletics the following offseason.
He completed the comeback this past season, returning to the All-Star Game for the first time since 2008 and ranking as one of the best left-handers in the American League.
Still just 30 years old, Kazmir should be able to land at least one more lucrative multiyear deal. After David Price, he figures to be the best lefty on the market, and the three-year, $39 million deal Francisco Liriano signed this offseason could be a fair comparison.
15. SP Ian Kennedy, San Diego Padres
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2014 Stats
| 33 | 13-13 | 3.63 | 3.21 | 1.289 | 70 | 207 | 201.0 | 1.4 |
2016 Season Age: 31
Free-Agency Outlook
The San Diego Padres bought low on Ian Kennedy at the 2013 trade deadline, acquiring him from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for reliever Joe Thatcher, and after a nice bounce-back season from the right-hander in 2014, that move looks like a stroke of genius.
It's not all that long ago that the former first-round pick was a legitimate Cy Young candidate, as he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.086 WHIP to finish fourth in the voting back in 2011.
Even in his down years, he was still a durable workhorse, as he has topped the 180-inning mark in each of the past five seasons. That alone carries decent value, and all the more if he is pitching at a front-line level.
Kennedy is projected to earn $10.3 million in his final year of arbitration, and he seems like a prime candidate for a qualifying offer if the Padres are unable to lock him up long term. That won't hurt his free-agent stock much, though, as he figures to cash in either way.
14. SP Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
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2014 Stats
| 32 | 8-11 | 3.51 | 3.94 | 1.295 | 54 | 146 | 192.1 | 2.4 |
2016 Season Age: 30
Free-Agency Outlook
Yovani Gallardo has been the ace of the Milwaukee Brewers staff since Ben Sheets departed following the 2008 season, and he has taken the ball on Opening Day in each of the past five seasons.
Since claiming a regular rotation spot for the first time in 2009, Gallardo has gone 80-59 with a 3.73 ERA and 1,105 strikeouts in 1,155 innings, already carving out a place as one of the better starting pitchers in franchise history.
His strikeout rate has been down the past two seasons, to a career-low 6.8 K/9 last year, and it's fair to say his free-agent stock is not quite what it would have been if he had hit the market after the 2012 season.
However, he's two years younger than Scott Kazmir and a year younger than Ian Kennedy, so he gets the nod ahead of those guys. They all figure to land similar annual salaries, but Gallardo might be able to squeeze out an extra year.
13. LF Yoenis Cespedes, Detroit Tigers
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2014 Stats
| 152 | .260/.301/.450 | 156 | 36 | 22 | 100 | 89 | 7 | 4.1 |
2016 Season Age: 30
Free-Agency Outlook
A lack of on-base skills (.316 OBP career, .301 OBP in 2014) is always going to keep Yoenis Cespedes from being an elite player, but his right-hander power and cannon arm in the outfield are still enough to make him a hot commodity on the free-agent market.
A clause in his contract allows him to forgo the arbitration process and immediately become free-agent eligible at the conclusion of the four-year, $36 million deal he signed prior to the 2012 season, and he's no doubt in for a substantial raise.
Joining a Detroit Tigers lineup that features Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez will give him plenty of protection and RBI opportunities, and he could wind up with the best offensive numbers of his career as a result.
The market for Cespedes will likely be tied to that of Justin Upton, the other power hitting outfielder set to hit free agency, and something like a five-year, $75 million deal seems like a reasonable expectation.
12. UT Ben Zobrist, Oakland Athletics
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2014 Stats
| 146 | .272/.354/.395 | 155 | 34 | 10 | 52 | 83 | 10 | 5.0 |
2016 Season Age: 35
Free-Agency Outlook
Underrated and vastly underpaid for most of his career, Ben Zobrist will make just $7.5 million this coming season, in what will be his first and likely only year with the Oakland Athletics.
Sabermetrics fans are well acquainted with just how valuable Zobrist is, as his 37.4 WAR since becoming an everyday player in 2009 is good for third-best in the league, trailing only Robinson Cano (40.7) and Miguel Cabrera (38.5).
His incredible defensive versatility, coupled with his solid mix of power, speed and on-base skills offensively, makes him the type of player that would make any team better. As a result, there figures to be no shortage of teams interested in acquiring his services.
It's important to keep in mind that Zobrist will be entering his age-35 season when he reaches free agency, so a long-term deal probably isn't in the cards. That being said, it wouldn't be surprising to see him double his salary over a three-year contract.
11. SP Doug Fister, Washington Nationals
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2014 Stats
| 25 | 16-6 | 2.41 | 3.93 | 1.079 | 24 | 98 | 164.0 | 4.5 |
2016 Season Age: 32
Free-Agency Outlook
One of the more overlooked starters in baseball the past four years, Doug Fister has quietly gone 51-38 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.163 WHIP, and his first season with the Washington Nationals was his best to date.
A 3.93 FIP is a bit concerning, and if nothing else, we'll probably see his ERA climb back north of 3.00 this coming season, but the big 6'8" right-hander still remains a front-line option in a very good Nationals rotation.
Adding to his value is his recent run of playoff success, as Fister has gone 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA in six postseason starts over the past three seasons. That includes seven innings of four-hit, shutout ball in his lone start against the San Francisco Giants in the National League Division Series last season.
Another strong season could push him up toward the Jeff Samardzija/Mat Latos range of free-agent arms, but at the very least, Fister figures to see something in the range of the four-year, $55 million deal signed by Ervin Santana.
10. C Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles
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2014 Stats
| 26 | .308/.338/.500 | 32 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 13 | 0 | 0.7 |
2016 Season Age: 30
Free-Agency Outlook
Matt Wieters will need to prove he's 100 percent after missing the bulk of last season with Tommy John surgery, and a big payday awaits if he does, as he will be the top catcher on the market by a wide margin.
The recent contracts of Brian McCann (five years, $85 million) and Russell Martin (five years, $82 million) show just how beneficial it is to be a front-line catcher in free agency, and that's exactly what Wieters has been when he's healthy.
The former No. 1 overall prospect in baseball heading into the 2009 season, according to Baseball America, Wieters was working on a run of three straight seasons with at least 25 doubles and 20 home runs before his season was cut short after just 26 games last year.
Getting his arm back to where it was will be important, as he was one of the best in the game at throwing out would-be base stealers prior to the surgery.
A Gold Glove-caliber catcher with 20-homer power doesn't hit the open market very often, and it will be interesting to see if the Baltimore Orioles let him walk or if they pony up to re-sign him.
9. SP Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox
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2014 Stats
| 31 | 15-13 | 3.43 | 3.67 | 1.231 | 41 | 129 | 204.2 | 4.0 |
2016 Season Age: 27
Free-Agency Outlook
Rick Porcello has never been asked to be anything more than a back-of-the-rotation arm in some very good Detroit Tigers rotations, but he'll be stepping into a more prominent role this coming season after being acquired by the Boston Red Sox.
Coming off of the best all-around season of his career, Porcello already has 76 wins under his belt prior to his age-26 season, as he has been a staple in the Tigers rotation since he was a 20-year-old rookie back in 2009.
If he can turn in a similar performance to what he did last year in the big market that is Boston, it won't go unnoticed, and he could climb toward a spot in the top five of these rankings.
As it stands, Porcello profiles as a solid No. 2/No. 3 starter type, and the fact that he will be heading into his age-27 season when he reaches free agency makes him an incredibly attractive option for a team looking to improve both short term and long term.
Guys like Doug Fister, Ian Kennedy and Yovani Gallardo may be better pitchers, but age makes Porcello the better free-agent option—it's as simple as that.
8. SS Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals
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2014 Stats
| 154 | .255/.313/.430 | 151 | 26 | 24 | 91 | 73 | 24 | 3.8 |
2016 Season Age: 30
Free-Agency Outlook
Top-tier shortstops still in the prime of their careers don't hit the free-agent market very often, but it's looking more and more like Ian Desmond will be playing elsewhere in 2015.
If nothing else, the Washington Nationals have a contingency plan in place, as they have acquired a long-term option at the position this offseason in prospect Trea Turner and a potential stopgap to him in Yunel Escobar.
Mike Axisa of CBS Sports offered up similar thoughts on the future of the Nationals infield.
"Either way, traded now or as a free agent later, Desmond seems likely to leave the Nationals at some point before the 2016 season. Escobar can step in and play second base alongside Desmond right now, then replace him at shortstop either at midseason [if traded] or next year [if he leaves as a free agent].
The Nationals acquired their shortstop of the future earlier this offseason when they landed Trea Turner from the Padres in the Wil Myers three-team deal, but Turner is unlikely to be MLB ready come Opening Day 2016. Escobar buys the team some time and allows them to be patient with their top shortstop prospect.
"
Desmond is currently working on a run of three straight 20/20 seasons, and outside of a healthy Troy Tulowitzki he's probably the best offensive shortstop in the game today.
Ian Kinsler is actually a decent comparison from a production standpoint, and he is currently working on a five-year, $75 million deal. That could be a starting point for Desmond negotiations, and a $100 million deal is not out of the question.
7. SP Jeff Samardzija, Chicago White Sox
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2014 Stats
| 33 | 7-13 | 2.99 | 3.20 | 1.065 | 43 | 202 | 219.2 | 3.7 |
2016 Season Age: 31
Free-Agency Outlook
After showing flashes of his front-line potential during his first two seasons as a starter, Jeff Samardzija turned in a terrific all-around season in 2014, and he didn't miss a beat when he was traded to the Oakland Athletics at the deadline.
All told, he wound up with career bests in innings pitched (219.2), ERA (2.99), FIP (3.20), WHIP (1.065) and, perhaps most importantly, walk rate (1.8 BB/9).
Though he will be entering his age-31 season when he reaches free agency, Samardzija does not have nearly the workload on his arm that most pitchers his age do, with just 1,263 professional innings under his belt.
"We're going to make every effort in the coming weeks and months to try to make this a long-term relationship," White Sox general manager Rick Hahn said after the team acquired Samardzija at the winter meetings, via Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.
That could mean the big right-hander never reaches free agency, but either way, he figures to be headed for contract pushing $100 million.
6. SP Mat Latos, Miami Marlins
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2014 Stats
| 16 | 5-5 | 3.25 | 3.65 | 1.153 | 26 | 74 | 102.1 | 0.9 |
2016 Season Age: 28
Free-Agency Outlook
Already traded for the second time prior to his age-27 season, Mat Latos joins a Miami Marlins team that looks to have a legitimate chance at reaching the playoffs after a surprise run at contention this past season.
The burly right-hander opened last season on the disabled list, missing the first 66 games of the season while recovering from knee surgery, but he was terrific once again upon returning.
Latos served as the ace of the Cincinnati Reds staff for most of the 2013 season while Johnny Cueto was on the disabled list, and he proved up to the task in going 14-7 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.210 WHIP over a career-high 210.2 innings of work.
He's younger than any other free-agent starter outside of Rick Porcello, and outside of the knee surgery, he has been durable throughout his big league career. He's a notch below the market's top three arms, but a nine-figure payday still seems likely.
5. LF Justin Upton, San Diego Padres
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2014 Stats
| 154 | .270/.342/.491 | 153 | 34 | 29 | 102 | 77 | 8 | 3.3 |
2016 Season Age: 28
Free-Agency Outlook
Still just 27 years old, Justin Upton already has eight big league seasons under his belt after debuting as a 19-year-old phenom back in 2007.
He's undoubtedly established himself as one of the best right-handed power hitters in the game over the past four seasons, hitting .276/.355/.479 and averaging 26 home runs and 82 RBI per season, and the San Diego Padres are hoping he can help turn their offense around in 2015.
Petco Park is not the ideal home for a power hitter, but Upton has done enough to establish himself over the years that even if his power numbers dip a bit it won't effect his free-agent stock next winter.
According to a tweet from Jim Duquette of MLB Network, Upton is open to the idea of an extension with the Padres, but it has to take place before the start of spring training.
That seems like a long shot, but it does keep open the possibility that he could re-sign there next offseason.
4. RF Jason Heyward, St. Louis Cardinals
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2014 Stats
| 149 | .271/.351/.384 | 155 | 26 | 11 | 58 | 74 | 20 | 6.3 |
2016 Season Age: 26
Free-Agency Outlook
Jason Heyward has yet to fully deliver on the tremendous offensive potential he showed when he broke into the league as a 20-year-old back in 2010, but that hasn't stopped him from being one of the most valuable players in baseball.
Terrific on-base skills, good speed on the bases and phenomenal defense in right field helped him to a 6.3 WAR this past season, the sixth-highest mark among all outfielders and second only to Giancarlo Stanton among right fielders.
The St. Louis Cardinals swapped starter Shelby Miller in exchange for Heyward this offseason, and alongside another on-base machine in Matt Carpenter, the top of their lineup figures to be among the best in baseball at setting the table.
An extension with the Cardinals is still a very real possibility, but either way, Heyward figures to cost well beyond $100 million. As the youngest of the 25 players profiled here, anyone signing him will be paying for his prime years, and that's rare on the free-agent market.
3. SP Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
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2014 Stats
| 34 | 20-9 | 2.25 | 3.30 | 0.960 | 65 | 242 | 243.2 | 6.4 |
2016 Season Age: 30
Free-Agency Outlook
The Cincinnati Reds' decision to trade both Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon this offseason during the winter meetings speaks to the team's interest in coming to a long-term agreement with ace Johnny Cueto, but that has yet to happen at this point.
"He loves Cincinnati and wants to stay with the Reds," agent Bryce Dixon told reporters, via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. "But he does not want to be a distraction in the middle of the season if he has not signed. He wants there to be some sort of closure once the season starts."
It's fair to say his value has never been higher. His 2014 numbers would have won Cy Young honors most years, but pitching in the same league as Clayton Kershaw meant he had to settle for a second-place finish in the voting.
Injury history is something that needs to be taken into account with Cueto, as he has made five trips to the disabled list in his career for various shoulder issues. However, throwing an NL-high 243.2 innings last season certainly helped prove he was 100 percent healthy.
Even with some regression toward the 3.30 FIP he put up last season, Cueto is still a top-tier starter. After watching teammate Homer Bailey sign a six-year, $105 million extension, he could be looking for Jon Lester money (six years, $155 million) next winter.
2. SP Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals
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2014 Stats
| 32 | 14-5 | 2.66 | 2.68 | 1.072 | 29 | 182 | 199.2 | 4.9 |
2016 Season Age: 30
Free-Agency Outlook
A lot of people would probably give Johnny Cueto the No. 2 spot in these rankings, but Jordan Zimmermann looks like the better investment long term.
Zimmermann does have a Tommy John surgery on his resume, but he has been a workhorse the past three seasons, and he seems to just be coming into his own after posting the best numbers of his career last year.
His 2.68 FIP last year was second only to Clayton Kershaw (1.81...ridiculous), and his 3.00 ERA over the past four years is the seventh-best mark among all pitchers with at least 100 starts over that span.
The right-hander closed out the 2015 season about as well as you can, throwing a no-hitter in his final regular-season start and 8.2 innings of shutout ball in his lone postseason start before the bullpen coughed up the lead.
Zimmermann will make $16.5 million this coming season, so a $20 million-plus annual salary on a long-term deal is well within reach if he continues his emergence as one of the game's top arms.
The question is, will the Washington Nationals be able to re-sign Zimmermann, Fister, both or neither?
1. SP David Price, Detroit Tigers
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2014 Stats
| 34 | 15-12 | 3.26 | 2.78 | 1.079 | 38 | 271 | 248.1 | 4.6 |
2016 Season Age: 30
Free-Agency Outlook
All due respect to Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann and the rest of what is an incredibly deep crop of free-agent starting pitchers, but there is little question who the top potential free agent is for next offseason.
David Price is a true ace, something that can only be said about a handful of guys around the league these days.
His 68.0 percent quality start rate for his career is the fourth-highest total among active pitchers with at least 100 career starts, trailing Clayton Kershaw (70.8), Adam Wainwright (70.0) and Felix Hernandez (68.3). That speaks to a guy who brings consistency and a workhorse mentality to the No. 1 spot in a rotation.
The big left-hander led all of baseball in innings pitched (248.1) and strikeouts (271) last season, and he finally got the postseason monkey off his back, allowing two runs in eight innings of work in his lone playoff start.
If the Detroit Tigers don't re-sign Max Scherzer this offseason, there's a good chance they lock up Price long term. Either way, expect the contract Scherzer eventually signs to set the market for what Price will be seeking as the top arm in his free-agent class.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted. Contract info courtesy of Spotrac.
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