One More Key Piece Can Legitimize These World Series Hopefuls
Well over two months have peeled off Major League Baseball’s offseason calendar, a hot-stove season that has been as active and stunning as any in recent memory.
Yet, it is not finished. Two big-money free agents still swim around untouched—Max Scherzer and James Shields—while several clubs with World Series visions remain a player away from being legitimate threats in October.
The rumor mills concerning Scherzer and Shields are certain to churn heavily, and any number of the teams in need of another acquisition could greatly use their services. Then again, not all of them need to stabilize or boost their rotations. Aside from those aces, position players remain on the market, available via trade or for a relatively modest free-agent fee.
How these teams plan to complete their offseasons is still unclear, but make no mistake: If they plan to win it all, they will need to make one more headline-grabbing move. Some of them do not have the pitching depth to win a pennant, and some are in need of positional help. But as of now, no matter the need, these clubs do not have a championship roster as currently constructed.
Baltimore Orioles
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The Kansas City Royals embarrassed the Orioles in the American League Championship Series. Then, Baltimore went on to lose Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis, two key pieces to a lineup that was among the best in the league in slugging percentage and OPS.
What the Orioles gained, in a sense, were the returns of Manny Machado and Matt Wieters. Both players suffered significant injuries last year and missed the postseason. Baltimore is also hoping for a bounce-back year from Chris Davis now that he has a therapeutic-use exemption for Adderall, the drug he was suspended 25 games for using last year.
The problem is none of those players is an outfielder, while Markakis and Cruz, in a pinch, were. That is why manager Buck Showalter met with free-agent outfielder Colby Rasmus and why he is the team’s current primary target, per ESPN's Jim Bowden.
Rasmus was once a star in the making, but since he broke in with St. Louis as a 22-year-old in 2009, two teams have given up on him, including the Toronto Blue Jays, who are letting him walk in free agency even though they also lost Melky Cabrera. That should raise all kinds of red flags on Rasmus, and it has.
That is why Showalter went to meet with him, as he did with Cruz last year when Cruz was coming off his Biogenesis suspension. Rasmus also has to convince everyone that his 2014 season (104 OPS-plus) was a fluke and that he is still the outfielder who put up a .276/.338/.501 line with a 127 OPS-plus in 2013. A one-year deal with Baltimore could skyrocket his value next offseason.
The Orioles could use rotation help the likes of what Scherzer or Shields provides—what team couldn’t?—but they haven’t been in on any big-money free agents all offseason. That leaves Rasmus, with Comeback Player of the Year potential in tow, as their need.
Boston Red Sox
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Here is a team that is attempting to go from worst to first for the second time in three years.
The Red Sox got off to a great start, adding Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez to their lineup, but things stalled after those cannonball splashes. Pitching was and remains Boston’s glaring need. While Rick Porcello, Wade Miley and Justin Masterson were nice additions, they won’t fix the problem. Boston traded away and then lost out on Jon Lester in free agency and currently does not have a legitimate top-of-the-rotation pitcher to replace him.
For all the Red Sox have done already, it makes zero sense for them not to go after an ace, either in free agency or through the trade channels, something The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo also believes.
That leaves Scherzer and Shields as options, as well as Cole Hamels and Jordan Zimmermann. The first two would cost a lot of money and years, while either of the second pair would cost the Red Sox prospects, of which they have plenty. The bottom line is the Red Sox can afford any of the four; it’s just a matter of what they are willing to pay.
Scherzer and Hamels make the most sense for Boston, although Peter Gammons makes it sound like a deal for Hamels is nearly impossible. Shields’ age (33) and mileage (1,910.1 career innings) make him a performance risk. Zimmermann’s option to hit free agency after next season makes him a risk because if he jets, it would leave the Red Sox in the same exact position next offseason.
However, for next season, adding any of the four would give Boston’s title push legitimacy.
Chicago Cubs
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Like the Red Sox, the Cubs went big early in the offseason.
Over the course of a week in December, president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer added ace Jon Lester, starter Jason Hammel and catcher Miguel Montero. They also hired Joe Maddon to manage the bunch. Bolstering a solid rotation paired with a blossoming lineup, those additions had the rest of the National League Central on red alert. The Cubs were becoming a serious threat.
Then things stopped. The Cubs have done nothing since but add fringe pieces. However, that could change in a hurry with the way this front office moves.
Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe has the Cubs being in on free-agent pitcher James Shields, and they were also interested in do-everything Ben Zobrist before the Oakland A's beat them to the punch. Now the focus must be on Shields, since it would appear Max Scherzer is out of their price range.
Finding lineup help is a plus, but adding an arm to give the Cubs a dominant rotation will make them a real threat in the Central.
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Los Angeles Angels
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This is a team that won 98 games and won the American League West by 10 games last season. It returns virtually the same roster aside from Howie Kendrick at second base, after he was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers for pitching prospect Andrew Heaney.
So why would the Angels need to add? Because the Kansas City Royals swept them out of the playoffs, Jered Weaver is declining (ERA-plus last four years: 156, 135, 115, 101), C.J. Wilson has been a complete bust (97 ERA-plus in three seasons) and Tyler Skaggs is lost for 2015 after Tommy John surgery.
The pressing need is pitching. The team is not searching for pitching right now, and it expects Garrett Richards to be back from a knee injury early in the season to reclaim the ace’s throne, per Fox Sports' Jon Morosi.
While Max Scherzer might be out of their price range, the Angels aren’t likely to be completely blind to improving the rotation. Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe reports the Angels have inquired about Shields, and if Richards returns to form to pair with Shields, that is quite the formidable front line.
The Angels also had interest in Ben Zobrist with Kendrick out of their mix, but the rival Oakland A's made a big-time upgrade when they traded for him over the weekend. That gives Dipoto even more reason to aggressively pursue Shields, and even ask Scherzer for at least a spin on the dance floor.
New York Yankees
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It seems the Yankees are always in need these days, and today is no different. The acquisitions of Chase Headley, Didi Gregorius and Stephen Drew have the Yankees lineup set. For now, that much is certain.
What is not is the health or effectiveness of their rotation. That leaves them needing—you guessed it—a starting pitcher.
The Yankees have not been linked to Max Scherzer or James Shields beyond speculation at this point, but this is the Yankees. They are never out of the running for anyone at any time. Beyond those two, there is lesser-known Cuban asset Yoan Lopez, who is 21 years old and expects to sign before spring training, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports.
Lopez could be a huge addition if he lives up to expectations, and he's cheaper than Scherzer or Shields.
San Diego Padres
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Add the Padres to the list of teams undergoing drastic transformations. Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Will Middlebrooks and Derek Norris are all key acquisitions who put the Padres on their way to becoming a threat in the National League West.
They aren’t completely there, though.
The rotation might have had a respectable ERA (3.55) and FIP (3.65), but in terms of value, it ranked 12th out of 15 NL teams in WAR (8.2). The defense also helped the staff greatly, saving 37 runs last season, the third-best mark in the league. Unfortunately for the pitchers, the outfield rebuild downgraded that unit.
Assuming Max Scherzer’s request for $200 million put the Padres out of play, James Shields could be a possibility. Another one is Yoan Lopez, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez has them being one of the teams most interested in the Cuban right-hander.
However, GM A.J. Preller is urging lower expectations for the rest of the offseason, telling U-T San Diego's Dennis Lin that any move would be “more likely something around the edges, to continue to add to the depth of what we’re building.”
San Francisco Giants
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Three World Series titles in five years means we should cut the Giants some slack. Then again, most of their division foes are getting significantly better and/or positioning for the future.
The inactivity has nothing to do with a lack of effort. They were finalists for Jon Lester and Pablo Sandoval, but since those two signed elsewhere, the only significant move the Giants have made aside from re-signing Jake Peavy has been to trade for third baseman Casey McGehee.
Last month, I explained how McGehee is a downgrade from Sandoval and that in order for that move to be deemed positive, the team has to allocate the money it saved in replacing Sandoval for the rotation. So far, it has not, and assistant GM Bobby Evans has told fans not to hold their breath.
Unless the Giants are OK with continuing their trend of winning the World Series and then missing the playoffs the following year, they may want to rethink that stance. Lester made sense for them, which means James Shields still would, as he does for a lot of teams. San Francisco's rotation has enough uncertainty that adding pitching, whether it be a big-money free agent like Shields or even just depth with a guy like Dan Haren, is a must.
The Giants seemed like a natural fit for Ben Zobrist because they need a left fielder, and that need still must be filled. But as the Giants know as well as any team due to their World Series runs, pitching wins.
Toronto Blue Jays
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The Blue Jays made substantial upgrades with Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson, and trading for Michael Saunders will help in the outfield. And while the Jays are intent on improving a bullpen that was 25th in the majors with a 4.09 ERA, the rotation definitely does not scare anyone.
The Steamer projections for their rotation options as of now are unimpressive, and in a division that tends to score runs, that is not good.
More bad news: The Blue Jays have about $5-7 million left to spend this offseason, according to Shi Davidi of SportsNet.ca. That really puts them in a bind in terms of acquiring any kind of rotational help, and given the current market, it won’t even allow them to pursue a big-time reliever. Taking a flier on Rafael Soriano or making a trade are their options at this point.
The Blue Jays upgraded from last season, but not where it matters most. A legitimate front-line starter would greatly improve their chances of playing into October, but unless someone drops a bag of money on their doorstep in the next couple of weeks, help is not coming and the Blue Jays will have another “also-ran” on their resume.
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