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Final Predictions for the 2015 Baseball Hall of Fame Class

Joel ReuterJan 5, 2015

The Baseball Writers' Association of America will announce the 2015 MLB Hall of Fame class Tuesday, Jan. 6, at 2 p.m. ET, as this year's crop of candidates will look to follow up what was an impressive 2014 class.

A total of 34 players are featured on this year's ballot, 17 newcomers and 17 holdovers, with a trio of pitchers in Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz highlighting the first-time eligible players.

Last year saw three all-time greats earn enshrinement in Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas, and this year's class has a chance to be equally impressive.

So ahead of the official voting results, here is a complete rundown of the 2015 candidates.

Also included are predictions on how the voting will inevitably shake out, based on partial voting results that have been made public as well as overall voting trends in recent years.

*Note: Vote total predictions based on 571 possible ballots, the number cast last season, though more or less could wind up being cast.

Complete 2015 Ballot

1 of 12

Pitchers

SP Roger Clemens (202, 35.4%)
RP Tom Gordon
RP Eddie Guardado
SP Randy Johnson
SP Pedro Martinez
SP Mike Mussina (116, 20.3%)
RP Troy Percival
SP Curt Schilling (167, 29.2%)
SP Jason Schmidt
RP Lee Smith (171, 29.9%)
SP John Smoltz

Catchers

C Mike Piazza (355, 62.2%)

Infielders

SS Rich Aurilia
1B Jeff Bagwell (310, 54.3%)
2B Craig Biggio (427, 74.8%)
3B Aaron Boone
1B Tony Clark
1B Carlos Delgado
SS Nomar Garciaparra
2B Jeff Kent (87, 15.2%)
DH Edgar Martinez (144, 25.2%)
1B Don Mattingly (47, 8.2%)
1B Fred McGriff (67, 11.7%)
1B Mark McGwire (63, 11.0%)
SS Alan Trammell (119, 20.8%)

Outfielders

LF Barry Bonds (198, 34.7%)
RF Jermaine Dye
CF Darin Erstad
LF Cliff Floyd
RF Brian Giles
LF Tim Raines (263, 46.1%)
RF Gary Sheffield
RF Sammy Sosa (41, 7.2%)
RF Larry Walker (58, 10.2%)

Returnees' 2014 vote total in parenthesis.

Less Than 5 Percent of Vote, Removed from Ballot (Pitchers)

2 of 12

Career Stats

Tom Gordon138-1261583.961,9282,108.035.3
Eddie Guardado45-611874.31798944.213.7
Troy Percival35-433583.17751708.217.5
Jason Schmidt130-9603.961,7581996.128.4

Less Than 5 Percent of Vote, Removed from Ballot (Hitters)

3 of 12

Career Stats

Rich Aurilia.275/.328/.4331,5761867562318.1
Aaron Boone.263/.326/.4251,01712655510713.5
Tony Clark.262/.339/.4851,188251824612.5
Carlos Delgado.280/.383/.5462,0384731,5121444.3
Jermaine Dye.274/.338/.4881,7793251,0724620.3
Darin Erstad.282/.336/.4071,69712469917932.3
Cliff Floyd.278/.358/.4821,47923386514825.9
Nomar Garciaparra.313/.361/.5211,7472299369544.2
Brian Giles.291/.400/.5021,8972871,07810950.9

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Enough to Stay on Ballot, Less Than 50 Percent of Vote (Pitchers)

4 of 12

Career Stats

Roger Clemens354-18403.124,6724,916.2139.4207 (36.3%)
Mike Mussina270-15303.682,8133,562.282.7131 (22.9%)
Curt Schilling216-146223.463,1163,26180.7179 (31.3%)
Lee Smith71-924783.031,2511,289.129.4162 (28.5%)

Enough to Stay on Ballot, Less Than 50 Percent of Vote (Hitters)

5 of 12

Career Stats

Barry Bonds.298/.444/.6072,9357621,996162.5 202 (35.4%)
Jeff Kent.290/.356/.5002,4613771,51855.291 (15.9%)
Edgar Martinez.312/.418/.5152,2473091,26168.3161 (28.2%)
*Don Mattingly .307/.358/.4712,1532221,09942.256 (9.8%)
Fred McGriff .284/.377/.5092,4904931,55052.659 (10.3%)
Mark McGwire.263/.394/.5881,6265831,41462.062 (10.9%)
Gary Sheffield.292/.393/.5142,6895091,67660.248 (8.4%)
Sammy Sosa.273/.344/.5342,4086091,66758.435 (7.4%)
Alan Trammell .285/.352/.4152,3651851,00370.3137 (24.0%)
Larry Walker.313/.400/.5652,1603831,31172.655 (9.6%)

*Removed from ballot, 15th year of eligibility.

LF Tim Raines: Out

6 of 12

Prediction: 301 (52.7%)

Career Stats

2,502.294/.385/.4252,6054301131709801,57180869.1

After receiving 52.2 percent of the vote in 2013, Tim Raines saw his support dip to 46.1 percent last year, and he will need to get things headed back in the right direction as he enters his eighth year on the ballot.

There is little doubt that Raines is one of the best leadoff hitters the game has ever seen, as his .385 on-base percentage and 808 stolen bases (fifth all time) put his production on an elite level.

Lou Brock may be the best current Hall of Fame comparison for Raines, and while Brock had 3,000 hits and more stolen bases, Raines holds a significant edge in career WAR (69.1 to 45.2).

He also passes the contemporary test as one of the top players of the 1980s, though he did take a backseat to Rickey Henderson in terms of that era's best table-setter.

With the recent rule change cutting ballot time from 15 years to 10, Raines could see a spike in support now that his time on the ballot is pushing toward a close. A jump back over 50 percent could set him up to make a run at induction in 2016 or 2017.

1B Jeff Bagwell: Out

7 of 12

Prediction: 355 (62.2%)

Career Stats

2,150.297/.408/.5402,314488324491,5291,51720279.6

Jeff Bagwell falls short of the standard milestones associated with elite power hitters, but his .948 career OPS is 21st all time and better than the likes of Willie Mays, Hank Aaron and many others. That alone is a compelling case for Hall of Fame enshrinement, but it's far from his only impressive career accomplishment.

There are currently 21 players in the Hall of Fame who played primarily first base during their careers, and Bagwell has a better career WAR (79.6) than all but Lou Gehrig (112.4), Jimmie Foxx (96.4), Cap Anson (93.9) and Roger Connor (84.1).

One has to think Bagwell will find his way into the Hall of Fame at some point before his time on the ballot is up, but in another crowded year, he may have to settle for topping the 60 percent mark for the first time in 2015.

C Mike Piazza: Out

8 of 12

Prediction: 394 (69.0%)

Career Stats

1,912.308/.377/.5452,127344 84271,3351,0481759.2

Performance-enhancing drug questions are the only thing that has kept Mike Piazza out of the Hall of Fame, but at some point, the greatest offensive catcher in the history of the game figures to make his way to Cooperstown.

Piazza admitted to using androstenedione prior to its being banned, but he technically didn't do anything wrong, and he has received far more support than other players who have PED question marks.

His 427 home runs and .922 OPS are tops among players who served primarily as catchers in their career, and beyond that, he ranks in the top 10 in nearly every offensive category at the position. His defense was never a strength, but that is not enough to keep him out of the Hall.

Piazza saw his support climb from 57.8 percent in his first year on the ballot to 62.2 percent last year, and it should continue to push toward the necessary 75.0 percent this time.

With a thinner crop of deserving first-timers next year and at least one holdover likely to be enshrined this year, Piazza looks to have a great chance at induction in 2016.

SP/RP John Smoltz: In

9 of 12

Prediction: 447 (78.3%)

Career Stats

723/481213-1551543.331251.1763,0843,473.066.5

After watching longtime teammates Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine easily earn first-ballot enshrinement last year, John Smoltz will look to join them in Cooperstown in 2015.

Smoltz is hard to compare to his contemporaries due to his time spent in the bullpen, but he is the only pitcher with 200 wins and 150 saves in his career, as he was not any less dominant during his time in the 'pen.

The 1996 NL Cy Young winner and an eight-time All-Star, he also has one of the most impressive postseason resumes of all time, going 15-4 with four saves and a 2.67 ERA in 209 postseason innings of work.

Smoltz is by no means a lock for first-ballot induction, especially being compared alongside Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson this year, but he'll likely sneak in with just over the necessary 75 percent of support.

2B Craig Biggio: In

10 of 12

Prediction: 471 (82.5%)

Career Stats

2,850.281/.363/.4333,060668552911,1751,84441464.9

After falling just two votes shy of induction last year, Craig Biggio looks like a lock to receive the necessary 75 percent of the vote, and then some, in what will be his third go-round on the ballot.

Aside from reaching the 3,000-hit mark, Biggio also ranks among the all-time leaders in doubles (668, fifth) and runs scored (1,844, 15th) and holds the career mark for hit by pitches.

He began his career behind the plate as a catcher but managed to turn himself into a Gold Glove defender at second base, where he and Roberto Alomar were the elite players at the position during their era.

A case can be made that he was never even the biggest star on his own team, playing alongside Jeff Bagwell, but Biggio has a first-ballot resume and should finally make it in this time around.

SP Pedro Martinez: In

11 of 12

Prediction: 543 (95.1%)

Career Stats

476/409219-10032.931541.0543,1542,827.186.0

While he may not have an eye-popping career win total, a strong case can be made for Pedro Martinez being the most dominant pitcher in baseball history when he was in his prime.

Martinez went 118-36 with a 2.20 ERA, 0.940 WHIP and 1,761 strikeouts in 1,408 innings of work over a seven-year stretch from 1997 to 2003, winning three Cy Young awards and finishing second in voting two other times.

Those numbers are impressive on their own, but when you consider that he posted them during the height of the steroid era, it's hard to argue any pitcher ever put together a more impressive stretch of seasons. Add to that the fact that he ranks among the top five all time in WHIP (1.054, fifth), strikeouts per nine innings (10.04, third), strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.15, third) and ERA+ (154, second) and there is little doubt he is a first-ballot talent.

Randy Johnson will probably receive the higher vote total, but both pitchers should comfortably clear the 90 percent threshold on their way to enshrinement.

SP Randy Johnson: In

12 of 12

Prediction: 549 (96.1%)

Career Stats

618/603303-16623.291351.1714,8754,135.1104.3

Arguably the best left-handed pitcher the game has ever seen, Randy Johnson might also be the most intimidating player of all time. The towering 6'10" southpaw coupled a fastball that could touch triple digits with a devastating slider, and that helped him pile up 4,875 career strikeouts, second only to Nolan Ryan.

Johnson won five Cy Young awards, including four straight from 1999 to 2002, when he went a combined 81-27 with a 2.48 ERA, 1.044 WHIP and 1,417 strikeouts in 1,030 innings.

A case can certainly be made for Sandy Koufax, Warren Spahn, Eddie Plank and Lefty Grove, but the Big Unit is right there in the conversation for best lefty ever.

Greg Maddux carried 97.2 percent of the vote last year, and while Johnson probably won't eclipse that mark, he should be able to come awfully close.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.

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