Teams with the Need, Resources to Meet James Shields' $100M Demands
The calendar's about to turn—another baseball season and spin 'round the sun in the books—and still James Shields sits, unsigned.
That's not an utter surprise; this offseason was ridiculously pitching-rich.
To put it in focus: Max Scherzer, the marquee arm on the market, is also unemployed heading into 2015.
Sometime soon, though, someone will ink Shields. When they do, they'll land a pitcher who posted a 3.21 ERA in 227 innings with the American League champion Kansas City Royals, a guy who would slot nicely into the top end of any rotation.
And they'll pay accordingly. The 33-year-old Shields is seeking a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $110 million and will likely get it, according to The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo.
So who's going to give it to him? Which clubs combine the need and financial flexibility to pluck Shields off the shelf?
Let's take a look.
Detroit Tigers
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At one point, it was a foregone conclusion Scherzer was going to ditch the Motor City.
Back in March, you'll recall, Scherzer rejected a deal from Detroit that would have made him one of the six-richest hurlers in baseball, per ESPN.com.
Now, though, Cafardo notes, "The more you ask baseball executives about where Scherzer will end up, the more the answers come back Detroit."
The Tigers already dealt another top starter, sinkerballer Rick Porcello, to the Boston Red Sox for Cuban slugger Yoenis Cespedes.
So, it stands to reason, they'll attempt to re-stock their rotation as they defend a hard-won American League Central crown.
But supposing they miss out on Scherzer, either because his asking price is too steep or because he opts to sign elsewhere.
Wouldn't Detroit, which last year owned baseball's fourth-highest payroll, consider Shields as an alternative?
Shields was a mainstay for the division-rival Royals last season. And despite other glaring needs—most notably in the bullpen—the Tigers have shown a willingness to go big on starting pitching, as evidenced by last season's deadline deal that netted left-handed ace David Price from the Tampa Bay Rays.
Will Big Game James be the Tigers' next big acquisition?
Odds it'll happen: 50-to-1.
New York Yankees
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The Yankees have been remarkably quiet so far this offseason, content to re-up productive-yet-unsexy contributors like third baseman Chase Headley while other clubs spend big.
It's a decidedly un-Yankee strategy, which begs the question: When will general manager Brian Cashman break the seal and/or the bank?
He might not; it's possible this is the year the Yanks at long last exercise restraint.
If they don't, however, Shields could be a prime target.
Masahiro Tanaka was a revelation when healthy, but the Japanese import succumbed to injury and made just 20 starts, calling his durability into question. Ditto 34-year-old CC Sabathia, who went down in June with season-ending knee surgery.
Michael Pineda showed flashes last season, but he, too, is injury prone. And Nate Eovaldi, who came over in a trade with the Miami Marlins, coughed up a National League-leading 223 hits last season.
So this isn't a dominant starting five, even in a best-case scenario, with Hiroki Kuroda heading back to Japan, per ESPN.com, and Brandon McCarthy signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Shields would undeniably help the cause, and he's been linked to the Bombers, per Cafardo.
It feels like a typical Yankee move. But what does that mean for the un-Yankees?
Odds it'll happen: 20-to-1.
Boston Red Sox
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The Red Sox overhauled their starting rotation—which posted an unsightly 4.36 ERA in 2014—at the winter meetings.
Boston acquired Porcello from Detroit and left-hander Wade Miley from the Arizona Diamondbacks and signed free-agent Justin Masterson.
Was that enough? Maybe so if you believe general manager Ben Cherington, who told ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes he's "not actively engaged with anything right now" on the starting pitching front.
"We like the direction the team is headed in," Cherington added. "I think it's more likely if we add anywhere, it's the bullpen, between now and spring training."
Of course, this is the same Boston squad that grabbed Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez early in the offseason, the team that's looking to rebound from a last-place finish one year after winning a Commissioner's Trophy.
Which is to say: Don't count the Red Sox out of any deal that could return them to glory.
Odds it'll happen: 10-to-1.
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San Francisco Giants
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The Giants have won three World Series in the past five years—maybe you heard?—so it's understandable if they don't feel a terrible sense of urgency this offseason.
On the other hand, San Francisco has watched Sandoval, an offensive cog and marketing juggernaut, walk via free agency while missing out on numerous other targets, including stud starter Jon Lester, who opted to sign with the Chicago Cubs.
Now, speculation has it, the Giants and GM Brian Sabean have Shields in their cross-hairs.
Shields would certainly bolster a rotation that's anchored by postseason hero Madison Bumgarner but also features serious question marks in Matt Cain (season-ending elbow surgery) and Tim Lincecum (ongoing ineffectiveness), plus aging vets Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy.
John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle says SF has "limited financial flexibility" and may be forced to choose between Shields and an upgrade in left field.
Still, no less an authority than Peter Gammons claimed the "exit polls" after the winter meetings had Shields landing in pitcher-friendly AT&T Park, where he'd enjoy every opportunity to excel.
Provided, of course, he shoves the bad memories of the 2014 World Series out of his mind and focuses on winning another one for the Orange and Black.
Odds it'll happen: 5-to-1.
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