Predicting the Winter Meetings' Impact on Your 2015 Fantasy Baseball League
Did anything happen at the MLB winter meetings that could impact 2015 fantasy baseball leagues?
I donโt know, it seemed like a pretty slow week in San Diego. Besides Jeff Samardzija, Brandon Moss, Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins, Dee Gordon, Andrew Heaney (twice!), Antonio Bastardo, Mat Latos, Rick Porcello, Yoenis Cespedes, Miguel Montero, Alfredo Simon and Matt Kemp, nearly everyone stayed put during the yearly summoning of general managers.
Oh, and donโt forget the free-agent signings. Jon Lester, David Robertson, Luke Gregerson, Brandon McCarthy, Ervin Santanaโฆyou get the point. Thereโs a lot of lineup reconstruction to process after an armada of transactions stormed the majors this week.
Now that the action has simmered down, letโs funnel through some maneuvers that will alter playersโ fantasy stock next season.
John Mayberry Forms Effective Platoon with Lucas Duda
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The New York Mets signing John Mayberry Jr. seems like an inconsequential move to bury down the laundry list of transactions. Weeks removed from signing Michael Cuddyer, the new outfielder represents mere organization depth for the Amazinsโ.
While Mayberry wonโt make a mixed-league fantasy dent, he will affect a more notable New York batter. The 30-year-old canโt hit righties at all, but he flexes a .533 slugging percentage against southpaws.
Itโd be a shame for the Mets to squander that production, especially given Lucas Dudaโs .317 slugging percentage against lefties. I know what youโre thinking: โThey canโt bench a guy with 30 home runs and 92 RBI!โ
When 28 long balls and 82 RBI came against right-handers, sure they can. Fantasy owners would have to monitor his schedule closely, but trading off some counting numbers will lead to a brighter batting average, as he hit .273 against righties and .180 off lefties in 2014.
Curtis Granderson could lose some plate appearances as well, but he actually touted a higher OPS against southpaws (.742) than right-handers (.703) last season.
A New Misfit Toy Shines in Oakland
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Billy Beane knows what he's doing, right?
Let's hope so. The polarizingย general manager gutted the Oakland Athletics, trading Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss and Jeff Samardzija. This is nothing new for Beane, and his new additions have a habit of flourishing in Oakland.
The least misfit of the additions, Brett Lawrie is still young enough to realize his star upside. His evaporatingย line-drive rate and zero stolen bases, however, limit him to a late-round flier. Still, managers won't find alternatives with a similar ceiling that late in the proceedings.
Brought in to replace free-agent Jed Lowrie at shortstop, Marcus Semien hit .234/.300/.372 in 64 MLB games last season. Not too impressive, but he tallied 23 home runs and 26 stolen bases through the minors in 2013.ย
Poised to play regularly, Semien's pop and speed will endear him to drafters looking for a deep middle-infield flier.
Designated for assignment by the Pittsburgh Pirates, Ike Davis will receive one last chance to latch onto a prominent gig. He's the quintessentialย Oakland gamble: a .233 hitter with a 14.8 walk percentage. Although his power has vanished over the past two years, he belted 32 dingers for the Mets in 2012.
The 27-year-old touted a .765 OPS against righties last season, so he could prove a sneaky platoon option for AL-only gamers if given the chance.ย
Luke Gregerson Becomes Houston Astros' Closer
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Rather than breaking the bank for one closer, the Houston Astros instead secured two premium middle relievers in Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek. Immediately Houstonโs two best bullpen arms, one should assume the closing duties in 2015.
Going off last seasonโs numbers alone, Neshek gets the edge. He produced a fantastic 1.87 ERA and 0.79 WHIP alongside 68 strikeouts and nine walks through 67.1 innings. Gregerson is no scrub with a 2.12 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, but his strikeouts are trending in the wrong direction.
Yet Neshek doesnโt flaunt the track record to support such success. Prior to 2014, he hadnโt pitched more than 50 innings in a season since 2007, and he owns a middling 3.75 FIP over his career.
Gregerson, on the other hand, marks a rare beacon of consistency from the bullpen. His ERA has swam below 3.00 in four consecutive seasons, and heโs logged over 70 appearances every year since reaching the big leagues in 2009.
Since his arrival, only Tyler Clippard has hurled more frames. Always the loyal bridesmaid, the 30-year-old certainly deserves the opportunity to take center stage down the aisle.
With saves finally attached to his name, Gregerson becomes a serviceable mid-tier closer, although his subdued 7.34 K/9 rate limits him from top billing.
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Brandon McCarthy Lights Up Los Angeles
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Of all the places for a pitcher to revive his career, Brandon McCarthy caught fire with the New York Yankees.
After getting sent away from the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 5.01 ERA, he recorded a 2.89 ERA with the Bronx Bombers. Through 90.1 innings pitched, the 31-year-old notched 82 strikeouts and 13 walks.
So itโs weird to celebrate him leaving the Big Apple, but thatโs precisely whatโs about to happen. He flourished in Yankee Stadium with a full spoonful of ground balls but will thrive even more at Chavez Ravine.
McCarthy would have netted well more than $48 million in free agency if not for relinquishing 25 home runs. Considering he posted a career-low 24.7 fly-ball percentage and career-high 16.3 home run/fly-ball percentage (HR/FB), those long balls are not indicative of his skill set.
Thatโs replicated by his 2.87 xFIP, a metric that grades a pitcherโs individual effectiveness by normalizing defense and HR/FB rates. Only eight startersโClayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg, Corey Kluber, Zack Greinke, David Price, Chris Sale, Hisashi Iwakumaโcrafted a better xFIP.
Nice list, huh? Other than Iwakuma, they all merit being drafted among the top 10 starters. Replace Kluber and Greinke with Phil Hughes and Jordan Zimmermann, and you get the eight starters with a higher K/BB ratio than McCarthyโs 5.30.
Hughes will also fall through the cracks, but those two will cost significantly less than the other nine guys occupying those leaderboards.
A New Boston Starter Becomes Viable Fantasy Asset
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The Boston Red Sox went to bed on Wednesday night with a depleted rotation, but they filled it by Thursday afternoon.
Shortly after Jon Lester spurned them for the Chicago Cubs, the Red Sox quickly replenished their starting staff elsewhere. Although they acquired no aces, theyโve assembled a staff of ground-ball fiends with sneaky fantasy appeal.
Wade Miley is the most interesting of them all, as he quietly notched a career-high 8.18 K/9 rate alongside a 3.98 FIP. Away from Arizona, he posted a 3.17 ERA compared to a 5.61 mark at home.
A popular breakout pick entering 2014, Rick Porcello went backward, losing all of the previous yearโs strikeout gains with a 5.67 K/9 rate unusable in mixed leagues. His sterling control gave him a 3.43 ERA, and he moves from one loaded offense to another, giving the 25-year-old righty a strong chance to pile on the wins.
Justin Masterson represents a low-risk, high-reward gamble for Boston and fantasy managers alike. He stunk up the joint with a 5.88 ERA last season, but he is only a year removed from generating a 3.45 ERA and 9.09 K/9 rate.
All three are better real-life additions than fantasy options, but theyโre worth tabbing, particularly in AL-only formats. Chances are at least one flourishes as a mixed-league mainstay, and they're all at least noteworthy streamers.
Move to Miami Helps Mat Latos, but Not Enough
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On the surface, Mat Latos enjoyed a dandy year. Whatโs wrong with a 3.25 ERA and 1.15 WHIP?
Not much. How about his average fastball velocity decreasing by nearly two miles per hour? Speed isnโt everything, but it certainly showed in the 27-year-oldโs 6.51 K/9 rate.
He delayed his season debut to June due to elbow concerns. While he rolled to the All-Star break with a 2.79 ERA, he can thank an unsustainable .188 BABIP for that. Given that grand fortune on batted balls, it wasnโt a surprise to see his second-half ERA balloon to 3.53.
The good news? Despite posting a lower career ERA in Cincinnati, he surrendered 0.97 home run per nine innings at home compare to 0.68 HR/9 away from Great American Ball Park. Marlins Park falls on the opposite end of the spectrum for pitchers, giving him a chance to prevent runs despite diminishing stuff.
Yet the strikeouts pull him down the rankings, relegating him to a mid-level option rather than the top-20 ace of years past. Before the move, the Steamer forecasting model projected a massive downfall for Latos, predicting a 4.21 ERA next season. If he doesnโt regain his lost velocity, that pessimistic prophecy is feasible.
Traded All-Stars Won't Rekindle Early Success
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Dee Gordon, Alfredo Simon and Brandon Moss were All-Stars last year?
Hard to believe, considering all three regressed drastically after the Midsummer Classic. Yet they each received recognition as the best of the best for an early 2014 surge, and that brief success and late drop-off cascaded into offseason trades.
Let's start with Gordon, who entered the arbitrary cut-off mark hitting .292 with 43 steals. While he maintained a .284 average afterword, his on-base percentage plummeted to .300. That will happen when you draw four walks through 258 plate appearances.
Less patience leads to less trips to the basepaths, which stifles his stolen-base output. Considering he hit two homers with 34 RBI, we're only here for the speed. Nobody is saying he'll dip into fantasy obscurity, but if that poor discipline carries over while his fortuitous .346 BABIP doesn't, he's a .260 hitter who steals 40 bases in Miami instead of 64.
If Alfredo Simon's first half didn't smell fishy, you must have been wearing nose plugs. He generated a 2.16 ERA in spite of his 4.33 FIP. While the superior indicator replicated at 4.34 after the break, his ERA fell in line to 4.52.
He doesn't strike out enough batters (5.82 K/9) to leave a fantasy imprint, and a move to the American League (Detroit Tigers) won't help his cause.ย
Brandon Moss entered the break slugging .530 with 21 homers, yet Beane couldn't dump him soon enough this offseason. His second-half strikeout rate soared to 31.0 percent, contributing to a .173/.310/.274 slash line and four homers.
He's the most interesting of the trio, as power is power, and he hit 30 round-trippers in 2013. Sporting a .831 OPS on the road, leaving the Oakland Athletics for the Cleveland Indians also injects him with a nice boost. If he clubs another 25 long balls, who cares how he gets there?
David Robertson (and His Replacement) Flourish
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If David Robertson can make it in New York, he can make it anywhere.
That hackneyed cliche doesn't bear any credence in most discussions, but it's true for a pitcher forced to pitch half of his games inside Yankee Stadium. The bandbox that construction workers built especially hurt him last year, as he posted a 3.98 home ERA compared to a 2.20 clip on the road.
Over his career, he holds a 2.55 ERA away from the Bronx. Hey, Chicago is away from the Bronx.
The Chicago White Sox certainly aren't paying him $46 million to pitch the sixth inning, so he'll resume his closing duties in a new terrain, one where his 3.08 ERA will comfortably deflate into the twos.ย
Armed with a prolific 13.43 K/9 rate, Robertson joins Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Greg Holland as a top-five fantasy stopper.
If the Yankees don't add a placeholder to close, Andrew Miller or Dellin Betances won't fall far behind that list. Deciding between the two creates an interesting dynamic for manager Joe Girardi. Could he eschew the outdated closer archetype and play the matchups with the righty (Betances) and lefty (Miller)? Or maybe he realizes Betances proved too valuable stretched out during tight jams in 2014 to pigeonhole into the final frame.
The rookie netted a 1.40 ERA and 13.50 K/9 ratio last season, but the pressure to get their money's worth, along with seniority, will likely lead Miller into the ninth inning. With a 2.02 ERA, 14.87 K/9 ratio and 1.51 FIP, he's also a stud worthy of the opportunity.
If either one becomes the closer, he joins that top tier listed above.ย
Yasmani Grandal Is Fantasy Relevant Again
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No longer stifled by Petco Park, Yasmani Grandalโs fantasy case just got interesting.
Not living up to his groundbreaking 2012 debut, the 26-year-old batted a paltry .225 in 2014, offering 15 homers in 128 games. He ended 26.0 percent of his plate appearances with strikeouts, a rate that will continue to stymie his average going forward.
OK, so the catcher isnโt perfect. He canโt blame all of his shortcomings on his unforgiving home ballpark. But it sure as heck didnโt help.ย Grandal wields a .802 career OPS away from Petco Park compared to .724 at home. Even during a disappointing campaign, he accrued a solid .431 slugging percentage on the road.
ESPN's Tristan H. Cockcroft noted Petco particularly perturbs lefties, and he also cited Grandal's real-life value behind the plate:
"All 15 of Grandal's home runs last season were hit as a left-handed batter, 12 of them pulled to right field. He'll also play regularly, whether or notย A.J. Ellisย is traded, simply because of how much better a pitch framerโremember, new president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman made that skill a priority in Tampa Bay (see: Molina, Jose)โhe is than Ellis, so if he can cut down even slightly on his strikeouts, Grandal could be a .280-20 man.
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Heโll also join forces with a much grander offense, ditching MLBโs worst run producers for baseballโs No. 6 lineup in terms of runs scored. On a stout offense, the heavy walker (13.8 career BB percentage) will score several more runs while receiving more RBI opportunities.
Away from the Padres, heโs a high-end No. 2 catcher with top-10 upside.
Sorry, Matt Kemp
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Poor Matt Kemp. He did everything in his power to punctuate his return to stardom, crushing 17 homers after the All-Star break. Although theย old Kemp returned with a .971 OPS following the Midsummer Classic, any momentum engendered quickly died by getting dealt to the San Diego Padres.
To be fair, nobody of Kempโs prowess has suited up for the Friars in a while. Their last offensive star, Adrian Gonzalez, clubbed 161 long balls in five years there, proving Petco Park does not stack up insurmountable odds against a slugger.
Theyโre still, however, odds not worth taking. According to ESPNโs park factors, only Safeco Field suppressed scoring more than Petco in 2014.
He also finds himself as the main clog in a desolate offense that hit .226/.292/.342 last season with an MLB-low 4.0 runs per game. So long, Gonzalez. Sayonara, Yasiel Puig. Hello...Seth Smith and Jedd Gyorko?
Ignore the spacious stadium and atrocious offense for a second, and Kempโs name recognition could oversell his true value. The former MVP candidate hasnโt stolen double-digit bases or hit more than 25 homers since his near 40/40 campaign three years ago.
Donโt dispel him too far down the cheat sheet, but Kempโs new home expels him from the third or fourth round of standard mixed leagues and into the fifth or sixth.
Note: All advanced stats are courtesy of FanGraphs.
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.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
