Identifying Favorite to Sign Each Top Free Agent Entering Winter Meetings
Thanks in large part to the early run on position players, most of the best talent on this winter's free-agent market is already spoken for.
But fret not. With Major League Baseball executives and player agents set to gather in San Diego for the winter meetings this coming week, the free-agent market isn't completely devoid of top talent just yet. There's still plenty to talk about.
That's what we're here to do, anyway. We're going to take a look at the 10 most notable free agents still available and see where they stand before taking a stab at guessing where they're most likely to end up.
Start the show whenever you're ready.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
10. Colby Rasmus: San Diego Padres
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Colby Rasmus has had an up-and-down career, and its current status is definitely on the "down" side after he managed just a .287 OBP in 2014.
However, Rasmus' 63 home runs since 2012 are a reminder he has a lot of power. And at 28, he's young for a free agent. He's an ideal candidate for a one-year pillow contract with a power-needy team.
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com says the Baltimore Orioles could be interested in Rasmus after losing Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis. Sam Mellinger of The Kansas City Star suggests the Kansas City Royals as another possibility, which also makes sense knowing that they just plain need power.
However, I have to stick to my guns. I picked the San Diego Padres as Rasmus' landing spot earlier this week, and they still make a lot of sense.
We know thanks to ESPN's Buster Olney that the Padres are aggressively seeking bats to aid their woeful offense. Rasmus is one who could fix the power outage they had in center field in 2014. And though Petco Park gets a bad rap, FanGraphs can vouch that it's actually friendly to left-handed power hitters.
That Rasmus' market has been so quiet thus far makes it hard to zero in on a true "favorite" to sign him. But if he gets involved in San Diego's search for bats, a deal could get done quickly.
9. David Robertson: Toronto Blue Jays
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After inking Andrew Miller to a four-year, $36 million contract Friday, one thing that's for sure with David Robertson is that the New York Yankees now have less of a need for him.
That doesn't mean the Yankees should be counted out of the running for Robertson, mind you. But it certainly means the door is wide-open for the competition to swoop in and grab him.
The Houston Astros could do so, as Ken Davidoff of the New York Post has reported their interest in Robertson. Another possibility is the Toronto Blue Jays, who Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com says "haven't ruled out" Robertson.
Once again, I have to stick with my guns and tab the Blue Jays as Robertson's likely landing spot.
After saving 39 games with a 3.08 ERA, Robertson would be a massive upgrade over the departed Casey Janssen at closer for the Blue Jays. And while he'd be expensive and would cost a draft pick, they're clearly going for it in 2015 and have already lost their first-round draft pick anyway.
Oh, and one other thing: It never hurts to deny the enemy.
8. Brandon McCarthy: San Francisco Giants
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It was a tale of two seasons for Brandon McCarthy in 2014. He posted a 5.01 ERA in 18 starts for the Arizona Diamondbacks and then a 2.89 ERA the rest of the way with the Yankees.
As such, it was no surprise when Jon Heyman reported in early November that the Yankees were "engaged" with McCarthy. But the word at the time was that he wanted to let his market develop, and there's been silence ever since.
That pretty much leaves us to speculate where he'll end up, so let's talk about the San Francisco Giants.
Though the word from Heyman is that the Giants are "all-in" on ace left-hander Jon Lester, the odds of them outbidding the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs or Boston Red Sox are probably slim. It's more likely they'll be forced to take the money they had earmarked for Pablo Sandoval and spread it around.
Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors floated the Giants as a possibility for McCarthy in early October, and the fit is definitely there. He'd be reasonably affordable, and he could be drawn to pitching at AT&T Park against National League hitters. Also, he's no stranger to the Bay Area.
Granted, McCarthy would hardly account for all of the money the Giants had set aside for Sandoval. But we'll get more into that later.
7. Francisco Liriano: Boston Red Sox
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Once Jon Lester comes off the board—which should be soon—Francisco Liriano will stand to cash in as the top left-hander left on the open market.
That could make it tough for the Pittsburgh Pirates to re-sign him, something that Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune Review says they're trying to do. Likewise, he could also be priced beyond the reach of the Kansas City Royals (Jon Heyman) and Minnesota Twins (Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com).
But the Boston Red Sox? Nope, they could afford him. And in all likelihood, they'll need him if they miss out on Lester like I expect them to.
Liriano isn't Lester's equal, but he's a guy Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe wrote the Red Sox are "infatuated" with. I highlighted the other day how that likely has something to do with how Liriano is a rare pitcher who can rack up both strikeouts and ground balls.
There's little question the Red Sox could afford a multiyear deal for Liriano. And though Liriano is tied to draft-pick compensation, Boston's first-round pick in 2015 is protected.
6. Ervin Santana: Chicago White Sox
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Ervin Santana isn't taking up as many "hot-stove" headlines as he did last winter, but he's definitely a top target once again after a solid turn in Atlanta in 2014.
Naturally, there appears to be plenty of interest in him. FoxSports.com's Jon Morosi says the Giants are intrigued, and other teams linked to Santana are the Royals (Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star) and the Miami Marlins (Clark Spencer of The Miami Herald).
The team to keep an eye on, though, is the Chicago White Sox.
Jon Heyman says Santana is one of many right-handers the White Sox are monitoring, and he stands out as a fit for them from several perspectives. He's a good match for their budget, and his pitching style just seems like a proper fit for underrated pitching coach Don Cooper.
Mind you, the Giants are a team that could easily challenge the White Sox in a bidding war for Santana. But once again, I have them signing McCarthy and someone else.
5. Melky Cabrera: Baltimore Orioles
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After a lost season in 2013, Melky Cabrera finds himself in a position to hit it big after bouncing back in 2014. He hit .301 and upped his OPS from .682 to .808.
Word is that two of Cabrera's old teams are eyeing him. Ken Rosenthal says the Giants are open to a reunion, even despite Cabrera's 2012 suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, and Jon Heyman has reported that the Royals are also open to a reunion.
But it's the Orioles who stand out as the best fit for Cabrera.
Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports reported in November that Cabrera was a "fallback option" if Cruz and Markakis both left, and that's what's happened. Though Cabrera couldn't replace their production all on his own, at this point, he's the best possible signing the Orioles can make to replace what they've lost.
After Rasmus and Cabrera, we now have just one hitter left to discuss...
4. Chase Headley: San Francisco Giants
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If you were surprised to hear from Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports that someone has made Chase Headley a four-year offer worth $65 million, don't be.
While that's $30 million less than the apparently superior Sandoval got from Boston, Grantland's Ben Lindbergh broke down how Headley actually measures up very favorably against Sandoval:
"For now, Sandoval is useful in the field, but Headley, who’s two years older, is as good as it gets with the glove. He bounced back at the plate after a first-half slump...and projects as a comfortably above-average hitter, if not nearly the MVP candidate he was in 2012.
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Since Headley is arguably Sandoval's equal at third base, a report from Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle that the Giants are in on Headley comes as no surprise. He would be Sandoval's replacement at the hot corner and at a fraction of the dollars they had earmarked for him.
In fact, it wouldn't be surprising if they're the team that's offered Headley $65 million. With Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com saying the Yankees have cooled on bringing back Headley and Clark Spencer saying the Marlins aren't talking to him, the Giants may have the inside track on Headley.
3. James Shields: Los Angeles Dodgers
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James Shields has eight straight 200-inning seasons under his belt, as well as a 3.17 ERA since 2011.
And yet, his market is about as quiet as can be. We know courtesy of Ken Rosenthal that the Marlins are interested, and it can be assumed that the Royals have some interest in bringing Shields back. But aside from that, there really hasn't been much chatter.
So let's put a few things together and discuss why the Dodgers are a strong possibility to land Shields.
Thanks to Rob Bradford and Alex Speier of WEEI.com, we know the Dodgers are interested in Lester. That tells us they're open to signing an ace pitcher for their already strong rotation, with an ulterior motive possibly being to prepare for Zack Greinke using his opt-out after 2015.
If the Dodgers whiff on Lester, it's easy to imagine Shields being their Plan B. They're more in a position to go cheaper rather than more expensive by signing Max Scherzer, and new Dodgers boss Andrew Friedman obviously knows Shields from his days running the Tampa Bay Rays.
As for Lester...
2. Jon Lester: Chicago Cubs
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There seems to be little question that Jon Lester will be the first of the winter market's big-name pitchers to sign, and we have a very good idea who the finalists are.
While the Dodgers are apparently in the mix, a recent report from Jon Heyman narrows things down to the Red Sox, Cubs and Giants. Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com, meanwhile, has indicated that Lester's choice is realistically between the Red Sox and Cubs.
Both of them can afford Lester, and he has good reasons to choose either side. He knows the Red Sox and can probably see their offense has greatly improved since he was traded in July. In Chicago, he knows Theo Epstein and can presumably see that he's steadily building a monster of a team.
But let's make this simple. Since we know from Heyman that the Cubs apparently have the high offer out to Lester, they should be considered the favorite to sign him. Maybe money isn't everything to him, but the money and the Cubs' future would be tough things to turn down.
This leaves us with one last pitcher to discuss...
1. Max Scherzer: New York Yankees
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There's a strong argument to be made that Jon Lester and Max Scherzer are actually equals, but Scherzer's the guy with the Cy Young, the 3.02 ERA and 10.2 K/9 since the start of 2013.
Though Scherzer's market hasn't been as loud as Lester's, we know there are interested parties. Jon Heyman has reported that he's yet another guy on the Giants' radar, and he's also one among the White Sox's targets listed in a previously mentioned Heyman report.
And then there are the Yankees. Heyman and John Harper of the New York Daily News are among those who have speculated that Scherzer will eventually be Bronx-bound, and Yankees GM Brian Cashman wouldn't rule out a pursuit of the right-hander in talking to Andrew Marchand.
"Again, there are certain things that could impact us and we can change our course of action for something we weren't necessarily pursuing earlier," he said. "I'm not trying to chase you guys into some big story, I just think we are open to evaluating the market as it evolves and how our efforts evolve as well."
There's little question the Yankees have a need for Scherzer. Dealing Shane Greene for Didi Gregorius just trimmed their rotation depth, and CC Sabathia has a balky knee and Masahiro Tanaka has a balky elbow.
That's a team in need of an ace, and Scherzer could definitely be that guy.
