Predictions for the 2014 MLB Winter Meetings, 1 Week Out
Generally, the annual winter meetings are when the MLB offseason really takes off, but this year, we have seen more action than ever in November, as a number of top free agents have already found new homes and a pair of blockbuster deals have been made.
That being said, expect the meetings to be as busy as ever when they kick off in San Diego on Sunday, Dec. 7.
The pitching market in particular could be busy as teams still wait for Jon Lester to sign a new deal and set the bar for the rest of this year's crop of free agent arms.
So, with one week to go until the annual flurry of rumors and action, here are 20 predictions for what will go down at this year's winter meetings.
The Philadelphia Phillies Will Do Nothing
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The Philadelphia Phillies front office said all the right things at the beginning of the offseason and on the heels of a second consecutive 73-89 finish.
"It's clear we have to go into a rebuilding mode," general manager Ruben Amaro told Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News. "We have to get younger, more athletic ... That's really the goal. We're keeping our thoughts and eyes open and not leaving anything off the table. We'll talk about any player. There are no untouchables. But we'll keep as many young players as we can."
Saying the word rebuild and actually doing it are two very different things, though, and dating back to the July trade deadline, the team has yet to do anything that would resemble a step in that direction.
Unloading the high-priced Ryan Howard and 10-5 guys Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins won't be easy, but there are other movable pieces on the roster.
Cole Hamels could net a huge return, though his market probably won't take shape until free agents Jon Lester and Max Scherzer are off the board.
An inactive winter meetings won't necessarily mean the Phillies will stay silent all offseason, but my guess is there will be no big news out of Philly next week.
The Tampa Bay Rays Will Name a New Manager
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The Tampa Bay Rays were dealt a pair of blows, as general manager Andrew Friedman jumped ship to take the same post with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and then manager Joe Maddon followed suit and bolted to take over as bench boss of the Chicago Cubs.
After releasing a preliminary list of 10 candidates to fill the manager vacancy, the field has been narrowed to three.
Kevin Cash is currently the Cleveland Indians bullpen coach and is a Tampa native who played for the Rays in 2005.
Raul Ibanez has yet to officially retire, but the 42-year-old saw a big dip in production last season while splitting the year between Los Angeles and Kansas City.
Don Wakamatsu managed the Seattle Mariners in 2009 and 2010, going a combined 127-147. He is currently the bench coach for the Kansas City Royals.
They could have a new manager before the winter meetings kick off, but if not, expect that to be one of their first orders of business.
My money is Wakamatsu, for the simple fact that he is the only one of the three with previous managerial experience, and this is still a team with enough talent to contend in 2015.
Chad Billingsley Signs an Incentive-Laden Deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks
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There are a number of interesting lottery-ticket guys on the free-agent market this offseason, especially on the pitching side of things as teams look for the next Chris Young in the rotation or Pat Neshek out of the bullpen.
Among them is 30-year-old Chad Billingsley, who made just two starts in 2013 and missed all of this past season, as Tommy John surgery and a partially torn flexor tendon have kept him on the sidelines.
That made it an easy decision for the Los Angeles Dodgers to pay the $3 million buyout on his $14 million option for the 2015 season.
From the time he broke into the league as a 21-year-old in 2006 through his last full season in 2012, the right-hander went a combined 80-61 with a 3.66 ERA. His 16.7 WAR during that span was good for 33rd-best among all starting pitchers.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are one team that has been linked to Billingsley in the early going this offseason, according to a tweet from Jack Magruder of Fox Sports Arizona.
New D-backs GM Dave Stewart had been the right-hander's agent prior to taking his current post, so there is plenty of history to indicate that Billingsley could eventually be headed for the desert.
Something like the deal Francisco Liriano signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates before the 2013 season could make sense. That was a one-year, $1 million deal that included $3.75 million in incentives and an $8 million option for a second year.
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Yoenis Cespedes Will Be Traded
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The Boston Red Sox roster is overflowing with outfielders following the addition of free agent Hanley Ramirez to play left field, and all signs point to deadline pickup Yoenis Cespedes being the veteran most likely to be moved.
Moving the slugger would leave the Red Sox with an outfield of Ramirez, Rusney Castillo and Mookie Betts, with Shane Victorino, Allen Craig and Daniel Nava in the mix for playing time as well.
Cespedes undoubtedly has value on the trade market, as right-handed power is in short supply these days and the 29-year-old has plenty of it. However, a career .316 on-base percentage keeps him from being an elite-level talent, and the Red Sox may need to temper their expectations for what they'll be getting in return as a result.
"Perception isn't always reality," wrote Mike Petriello of ESPN (Insider subscription required). "Cespedes is a player with big strengths but significant flaws, ones that limit his overall value, and ones that any team interested in acquiring him should be particularly careful not to forget."
That being said, there is still a very good chance he's gone before the winter meetings wrap up.
Evan Gattis Won't Be Traded
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The Atlanta Braves have already pulled the trigger on moving one big piece this offseason, as they shipped right fielder Jason Heyward to the St. Louis Cardinals for young right-hander Shelby Miller.
As the new front office continues to retool the roster, Mark Bowman of MLB.com (via Twitter) named Justin Upton and Evan Gattis as two bats that could also be on the move this winter.
Upton makes sense, as he, like Heyward, is a free agent at the end of the season. His market is tied to free-agent slugger Nelson Cruz, as teams searching for a right-handed bat with power will likely start with those two guys. (Update: Cruz signed with the Seattle Mariners on Monday, per ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick.)
On the other hand, Gattis is under team control through the 2018 and not even arbitration eligible until next offseason. He is coming off of a season where he hit .263/.317/.493 with 22 home runs and 52 RBI in 369 at-bats.
One way or another, Gattis will likely be moving out from behind the plate in Atlanta to make way for prospect Christian Bethancourt, but he is capable of playing left field.
New president of baseball operations John Hart refuted the idea that the Braves were pushing to deal Gattis during the GM meetings, according to David O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, and my guess is he stays put this winter and opens the season as the everyday left fielder.
Chase Headley Signs with the San Francisco Giants
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With Pablo Sandoval officially signed on with the Boston Red Sox, the top third baseman on the free-agent market is now Chase Headley.
He hit .243/.328/.372 with 20 doubles and 13 home runs last season while also leading all third basemen with a 28.0 UZR/150 and ranking third with 13 defensive runs saved, according to FanGraphs.
He was particularly productive after being traded to the New York Yankees at the deadline, hitting .262/.371/.398 over 191 at-bats down the stretch.
The Yankees are interested in re-signing the 30-year-old, but only on a three-year on a deal, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
With that in mind, there is a good chance Headley finds someone willing to offer up a fourth year, and my guess is that someone winds up being the San Francisco Giants.
After losing out on re-signing Sandoval, the Giants have a clear hole at third base and money to spend. They seem to have turned their attention to Jon Lester, but if he winds up signing elsewhere, Headley could quickly become their top target.
We'll say something like a four-year, $48 million deal gets the job done, the same contract that Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors predicted for Headley at the start of the offseason.
Torii Hunter Signs with the Texas Rangers
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He may not be the same dynamic defensive outfielder he was in his prime, but Torii Hunter remains a productive bat and a solid veteran presence heading into his age-39 season.
Hunter spent the past two seasons with the Detroit Tigers, hitting .286/.319/.446 with 33 doubles, 17 home runs and 83 RBI while primarily batting in the No. 2 spot in the lineup this past year.
Mark Whicker of the Orange County Register listed the Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins as the four teams Hunter is considering. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports added the Kansas City Royals to that list and noted that others are in the mix as well.
A reunion with the Twins would be nice, but Hunter will likely want to play for a contender as he continues to chase a ring.
He's probably more of a Plan B for the Orioles and Mariners, while the Royals could be more focused on the pitching side of things and replacing James Shields in the rotation. That leaves the Rangers as perhaps the most likely landing spot, as they have a clear need for a corner outfielder after declining their option on Alex Rios.
Hunter is a career .275/.356/.438 hitter with 21 home runs and 112 RBI in 166 career games in Texas, as he played there regularly as a member of the Los Angeles Angels.
Mat Latos Is Traded to the Boston Red Sox
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So where could Cespedes eventually wind up if the Boston Red Sox do pull the trigger on trading him?
The Cincinnati Reds could be the landing spot, as the two teams match up well as trade partners, with the Reds looking to move one of their starting pitchers and in need of a left fielder and the Red Sox looking for a handful of arms to fill out their rotation.
Mat Latos looks like the most likely starter to be moved by the Reds from a group of upcoming free agents that also includes Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon.
A straight-up swap of Latos for Cespedes would help both teams in 2015, but considering how much the Reds gave up to acquire Latos prior to the 2012 season, it may take a mid-level prospect or two on the Red Sox's side to get a deal done.
Regardless of whether they sign Lester, the Red Sox will be looking for a No. 2 starter type as well to join a rotation with only Clay Buchholz locked into a spot at this point.
Latos could be that guy, and the 26-year-old could also be a candidate to be re-signed if he proves healthy, as he had been a workhorse before running into injury problems for the first time last year.
Jon Lester Signs with the Chicago Cubs
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Last offseason, the starting pitching market stayed relatively quiet until Masahiro Tanaka finally made his decision and joined the New York Yankees.
This time around, it appears as though Lester will be the player who sets everything else in motion.
"Almost everything in the pitching market seems to be on hold until Lester makes his choice," wrote Buster Olney of ESPN. "Once that happens, the price ceiling will be established. 'Then everything else will fall in line after that,' said one agent."
The Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants look to be the three front-runners for the left-hander at this point, with the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals possibly in the mix as well.
The Cubs have offered up a six-year deal "north of $135 million," according to David Kaplan of CSN Chicago, and one has to think they'd be willing to increase that number if it means landing the staff ace they have coveted all offseason.
They could also sweeten the pot by agreeing to sign veteran catcher David Ross, who caught Lester to the tune of a 2.02 ERA last season. He was behind the dish for 18 of his 21 starts with the Red Sox, and there is clearly a comfort level there.
After missing out on Martin earlier this offseason, the Cubs won't let their top target get away.
Kenta Maeda Will Be Posted
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Once Lester officially signs, the rest of the pitching market will be set into motion, and that could include the Hiroshima Carp posting right-hander Kenta Maeda.
The 26-year-old went 11-9 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.096 WHIP and 161 strikeouts in 187 innings of work this past season and is 82-59 with a 2.44 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in his seven-year career.
Ben Badler of Baseball America provided a full scouting report and what to expect out of the right-hander at the big league level:
"Maeda is a slightly-built 6 feet, 160 pounds and throws around 87-93 mph with good sink and run, though he doesn't get great angle on his fastball. He's a good athlete, which helps him repeat his delivery and thrive when his command, which can be plus at times, is on point. Maeda doesn't have one knockout secondary pitch, but he has a solid-average slider and mixes in a curveball and a changeup as well.
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Based on that description, he would appear to slot in that second tier of starting pitchers alongside guys like Ervin Santana and Francisco Liriano.
Once he is posted, there will be a 30-day window for teams to sign him, with the max $20 million posting fee likely headed to Hiroshima by whoever winds up signing him.
With that in mind, don't expect a deal to get done at the winter meetings, but it could be when Hiroshima finally pulls the trigger on making its ace available.
Nick Markakis Re-Signs with the Baltimore Orioles
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At the beginning of the offseason, it looked like a foregone conclusion that Nick Markakis would be returning to the Baltimore Orioles.
Despite the fact that the Orioles declined their end of a $17.5 million mutual option, the general consensus was that the two sides would hash out a new deal. Yet here we are in December, and an agreement has still not been reached.
Markakis has spent his entire nine-year career with the Orioles, as the team took him with the No. 7 overall pick back in the 2003 draft. He hit .276/.342/.386 with 27 doubles, 14 home runs and 81 runs scored this past season, and while he may never be a 100-RBI guy again, his plus on-base skills have made him a solid leadoff hitter.
The Orioles were working on a new four-year deal for Markakis at the beginning of November, according to Roch Kubatko of MASN, but things have since stalled.
With mutual interest in a reunion, my guess is a deal still gets done between the two sides, and the Orioles could kick things into gear at the winter meetings as other teams start to get more serious about kicking the tires on Markakis.
Andrew Miller Signs with the Detroit Tigers
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In much the same way that Lester will set the market for starting pitching, Andrew Miller will set the bar among left-handed relievers this offseason. The 29-year-old posted a 2.02 ERA, 0.802 WHIP and struck out 103 batters in 62.1 innings of work over 73 appearances this past season while pitching for the Red Sox and Orioles.
If the three-year, $15 million deal Zach Duke received from the Chicago White Sox is any indication, Miller is headed for a huge payday, as he could get closer money after a dominant showing in 2014.
"He is a strong union man who believes in the right of a player to seek the best contract for himself when he reaches free agency," wrote Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe.
In other words, Miller will be going to the highest bidder this offseason, and after the disastrous showing their bullpen turned in last October, that bidder should be the Detroit Tigers.
A full season from Joakim Soria and the return of Bruce Rondon should help, but the Tigers still have to address the pen in free agency.
Signing Miller to be the primary setup man gives them a lights-out setup man who could potentially step into the closer's role if things go south again.
Brandon Moss Is Traded to the Miami Marlins
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After locking up slugger Giancarlo Stanton with a massive 13-year extension last month, the Miami Marlins are now looking for a left-handed run producer to slot behind him in the lineup.
The team is exploring the trade market for a potential upgrade at first base over incumbent Garrett Jones, according to Barry Jackson and Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.
Jones hit .246/.309/.411 with 33 doubles, 15 home runs and 53 RBI this past season after signing a two-year, $7.75 million deal in free agency.
Joe Frisaro of MLB.com named Brandon Moss of the Oakland Athletics as a potential target, and he could be a great fit.
Even with a second half drop-off, Moss still posted a .772 OPS with 25 home runs and 81 RBI this past season. He is projected to earn $7.1 million in arbitration, according to MLB Trade Rumors, making him a prime candidate to be moved.
Moving Moss would open up the first base job in Oakland for a platoon of Stephen Vogt and newly acquired Ike Davis, and it likely won't cost the Marlins a ton to get a deal done, so it looks like a win-win for both sides.
Alexei Ramirez Is Traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers
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The free-agent market at shortstop is far from exciting, as veterans Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie and Stephen Drew make up the cream of the crop now that Hanley Ramirez has signed on with the Red Sox.
As a result, it's not a big surprise to see the Los Angeles Dodgers opting to focus on the trade market to fill their void at this position.
According to a tweet from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the team is aggressively pursuing Chicago White Sox All-Star Alexei Ramirez.
Ramirez hit .273/.305/.408 with 35 doubles, 15 home runs, 74 RBI and 21 stolen bases last season, winning his second Silver Slugger award and earning an All-Star nod for the first time in his career.
The 33-year-old is due $10 million this coming season with a $10 million option for 2016. That reasonable salary, coupled with his production at a premium position, means he won't come cheap, and Buster Olney of ESPN echoed those sentiments on Twitter.
The Dodgers won't include anyone from the trio of Joc Pederson, Corey Seager and Julio Urias, but there is depth in the farm system beyond those guys, and the two sides should be able to come to terms on a deal if the White Sox are indeed serious about moving Ramirez.
Mark Reynolds Signs with the St. Louis Cardinals
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The Cardinals already filled their two biggest holes when right fielder Jason Heyward and setup man Jordan Walden were acquired in a trade with the Braves. They could still make a run at another starting pitcher, but at this point, their biggest remaining need looks to be filling out a bench that provided little in the way of offensive production last season.
Tony Cruz, Daniel Descalso and Peter Bourjos figure to be locked into three of the reserve spots, and all three are better with the glove than they are with a bat in their hand.
Ideally the Cardinals could find a right-handed-hitting platoon partner for first baseman Matt Adams, who hit just .190/.231/.298 against left-handed pitching over 121 at-bats last season.
Mark Reynolds could be the perfect fit as a backup at both corner infield spots who can provide some power off the bench in a pinch-hitting role.
Reynolds had 22 home runs in 378 at-bats last season, and he was 3-for-13 with a home run as a pinch hitter. He also has a career .809 OPS against left-handed pitching, posting a .351 on-base percentage against southpaws, compared to just .314 against righties.
David Robertson Re-Signs with the New York Yankees
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One of the best setup men in the game for years, David Robertson finally stepped into the closer's role last season to replace the retired Mariano Rivera.
He finished the season 39-of-44 on save chances with a 3.08 ERA, 1.057 WHIP and 96 strikeouts in 64.1 innings, and that was enough for the Yankees to make him a qualifying offer.
According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Robertson has a three-year, $39 million deal on the table from one team. He was reportedly looking for a deal in the neighborhood of the four-year, $50 million deal Jonathan Papelbon received from the Phillies prior to the 2012 season, per Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com.
There has been some speculation that the Yankees could make a run at Andrew Miller instead of re-signing Robertson, but after watching the Giants and Royals lean heavily on their dominant bullpens, a run at both guys is not out of the question.
The draft-pick compensation could be enough to keep other teams from offering up a fourth year for Robertson, and in the end, he will get his "Papelbon money" from the Yankees.
Francisco Rodriguez Re-Signs with the Milwaukee Brewers
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The Milwaukee Brewers' decision to re-sign Francisco Rodriguez to a one-year, $3.25 million deal last offseason didn't receive much attention at the time, but it wound up being one of the better bargains of the winter.
He converted his first 15 save chances of the season and finished the year 44-of-49 on saves with a 3.04 ERA and 0.985 WHIP, making his first All-Star appearance since 2009 in the process.
Still just 32 years old, K-Rod is a free agent once again and is likely to receive a decent raise and a multiyear deal this time around.
The market for closers behind Robertson is fairly deep, with Casey Janssen, Sergio Romo, Jason Grilli and Rafael Soriano all joining Rodriguez in the second tier.
The Brewers acquired Jonathan Broxton in August, and he's being paid like a closer with a $9 million salary for 2015, so it remains to be seen whether re-signing Rodriguez is a priority for the team.
That being said, with Zach Duke and Tom Gorzelanny also departing in free agency, something has to be done about the bullpen in Milwaukee. The team does not have any other glaring issues to address, so it can afford to spend some money to retain Rodriguez.
Ervin Santana Signs with the Kansas City Royals
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Ervin Santana had to wait until March 12 to find a new home in free agency last offseason, as the qualifying-offer compensation kept him from finding the big-money deal he was hoping for.
The one-year, $14.1 million deal the Atlanta Braves eventually signed him for wound up being money well spent, as the right-hander went 14-10 with a 3.95 ERA and saw his strikeout rate spike from 6.9 K/9 in 2013 to 8.2 K/9.
That performance resulted in another qualifying offer this offseason, and while there was some speculation that he could accept this time around, he wound up rejecting the offer to again test the free-agent market.
It was the Kansas City Royals who extended him a qualifying offer the first time around, after he went 9-10 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in his lone season with the team in 2013.
With James Shields likely headed for greener pastures in free agency, the Royals will be in the market to add at least one quality starter this offseason.
"We've got to do this thing with starting pitching,” GM Dayton Moore told Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star. "Quality starting pitching, it puts the game in a rhythm and it provides you stability. That’s the way we need to do it."
A reunion with Santana would give the team a quality veteran arm to join youngsters Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy atop the rotation, with Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Vargas filling out the back end of the rotation.
Jordan Zimmermann Rumors Swirl, but He Stays Put
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For as much as has been made about this year's free-agent class of starting pitchers, next offseason has a chance to be just as deep.
David Price will be the top option if he is unable to come to terms on an extension with the Detroit Tigers, but close behind is Washington Nationals right-hander Jordan Zimmermann.
Trading Zimmermann may seem counterproductive for a Nationals team very much in the mix to contend once again in 2015, but the Nats have some decisions to make about the future of the staff.
Both Zimmermann and Doug Fister are free agents after this coming season, with Stephen Strasburg up the following offseason. Shortstop Ian Desmond is also a free agent after the 2015 season, and chances are the team is not going to be able to retain all four of those guys long term.
According to James Wagner of The Washington Post, Zimmermann is open to a long-term extension to stay in Washington, but extension talks have not picked back up after breaking off last winter.
Expect plenty of rumors about a possible Zimmermann trade to pop up during the winter meetings, but in the end, he stays put as the Nationals look to stay whole and make another run at advancing past the National League Division Series.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
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