Sleeper MLB Teams That Could Surprise with Huge Splash This Winter
By now, every MLB fan knows that the Boston Red Sox are going for broke. And we all know that the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants have been linked in some way to just about every big name on the open market.
What about teams that may not have pockets quite as deep? What about those clubs best described as sleepers when put into the context of being big players on the free-agent market?
Well, let’s take a look at three such franchises.
To be clear, we will stay away from clubs like the Chicago White Sox. They have already signed two of the top 31 free agents based on fWAR (FanGraphs' version of wins above replacement) in the form of Adam LaRoche and Zach Duke. It’s safe to say they’ve already made a splash.
We’ll also steer clear of teams like the Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees. They are expected to make multiple moves this offseason and have significant financial resources.
And for those of you wondering about the Arizona Diamondbacks, well, you can forget about them being included. After all, they just inked Yasmany Tomas to a six-year, $68.5 million deal, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. True, general manager Dave Stewart likely isn't finished, but that splash is about as big as they come.
Here are three MLB sleeper teams presented in alphabetical order that could surprise everyone and make a huge splash this winter.
3. Houston Astros
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When Sports Illustrated declared the Houston Astros would win the 2017 World Series earlier this year, many scoffed. After all, the franchise has struggled at the major league level for some time.
Sure, there are stars in the form of George Springer and Jose Altuve, along with pitchers like Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh who are on the verge of sustained excellence, but to think that the World Series is reachable (let alone winnable) within three-and-a-half seasons seems ludicrous on the surface.
What SI was actually trying to illustrate is that the Astros have a farm system loaded with talent, stars on the 25-man roster and are on the precipice of something special. And as Grant Brisbee from SB Nation posited, there is legitimacy to the idea that having one of the best minor league systems typically translates into success within four years.
General manager Jeff Luhnow can’t rely solely on his farm system, however. He is going to have to add key pieces each of the next few seasons—starting now.
To that end, Ken Davidoff from the New York Post recently noted that the Astros “have communicated” with David Robertson’s representation in an effort to bring the premier right-handed reliever into the fold to assume the closer’s role.
Robertson’s not the only target Luhnow is looking at, however. MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart noted in mid-November that he was also “going hard” after Sergio Romo and Andrew Miller to lock down the back end of the bullpen. In addition to the relief corps, the Astros need to improve the rotation, outfield and add corner infield depth.
Each area has multiple free agents that can make lasting contributions without needing a five-year, $95 million commitment. Speaking of financial commitments, the Astros have just under $19 million in salaries before arbitration on the books next season and just under $14 million in 2016, per Cots.
In other words, they have room to add a few second-tier free agents.
Don’t misinterpret that. There is a wealth of talent available in the secondary market, including Ervin Santana, Brandon McCarthy, Torii Hunter, Pat Neshek and a host of others.
Bottom line is that the Astros are in build-now mode. That is not to say they have sights on an American League West title next season, but the vision is becoming clearer for the rest of us to see.
The splashes start now. Expect an active offseason for Luhnow and Co.
2. Minnesota Twins
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After posting at least 92 losses in each of the last four seasons, Ron Gardenhire was relieved of his managing duties by Minnesota Twins general manager Terry Ryan and replaced with Paul Molitor. It was the first big move of the offseason, but there are more to come.
Frankly, the Twins need to make some moves.
According to Phil Miller from the Star Tribune, television “ratings have declined by half since the losing began, and attendance has dropped by nearly a third, from an average of 39,112 per game in 2011 to 27,785 in 2014.” Simply put, the fanbase is disenchanted and sponsors are anxious.
Let it be known, though, that Ryan will be a busy man.
Already this offseason, there are reports that the club is trying to sign Torii Hunter to improve a rather poor offense. To that end, Charley Walters from the St. Paul Pioneer Press (via TwinCities.com) noted that Hunter and Ryan have had several conversations and that the outfielder “favors the Twins among teams with which he is considering signing.”
Adding Hunter would be a huge move from both a production and public relations standpoint.
The Twins were also in on Korean lefty Hyeon-jong Yang. In fact, Mike Berardino from the Pioneer Press wrote that they had won the bid to negotiate a contract with Yang, but the report was refuted by the Twins, via Darren Wolfson from 1500 ESPN. The Texas Rangers eventually emerged as the winning bid.
Yang wasn’t the only option, however. The club has “looked into” right-hander Justin Masterson, per La Velle E. Neal III from the Star Tribune, and will be heavily involved in free agency, as Ryan said that “trade possibilities might be a little leaner,” per Neal.
The point there is that Ryan is casting a wide net to improve the rotation, which was terrible last season, ranking near the bottom in MLB in ERA and FIP, per FanGraphs.
Again, he has to be aggressive. And while the Twins may not go out and land Jon Lester or Max Scherzer, there is no doubt they will be one of the more active franchises when it comes to adding talent.
Look for them to add a starter, at least two bullpen arms and a guy like Hunter to the 25-man roster before the offseason ends.
1. San Diego Padres
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They made the highest offer for Pablo Sandoval, per The San Diego Union-Tribune’s Dennis Lin. They are looking at Matt Kemp and Jay Bruce, per Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. And let’s not forget that they were in the mix for Cuban free agent Yasmany Tomas.
Simply put, the San Diego Padres are going to make a splash this offseason—one way or another.
And with so many holes, the Padres will be able to target any number of free agents. It's a matter of both reputation and performance.
What we mean is that the Padres have to make San Diego a point of interest for free agents. Look to the Washington Nationals for an example.
Prior to the 2011 season, the Nationals signed Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million contract after he posted a .296/.388/.532 slash line with 27 home runs and 85 RBI for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2010. While widely criticized as an overreach, the move not only aimed at improving play on the field, but was “designed to put Washington on the map as a free-agent destination,” per USA Today’s Paul White.
The Werth signing proved to be a fine talent acquisition and helped turn the Nationals into one of the elite organizations in MLB. Expect the Padres to follow suit and acquire at least two targets this offseason as the club looks to reshape its image.
Not that there isn’t talent present on the 25-man roster. Quite the contrary.
With Ian Kennedy, Andrew Cashner, Seth Smith, Yasmani Grandal, Yonder Alonso, Yangervis Solarte and Tyson Ross, there is a solid foundation in place. And even if the Padres trade one or more of them, the farm system has guys like Hunter Renfroe, Matthew Wisler and Austin Hedges to lessen the loss.
Either way, the Padres can easily improve on the 77 wins they put up in 2014 with a few key additions. There’s no doubt general manager A.J. Preller is thinking the same thing.
Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com. Contract information pulled from Cots Contracts. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.
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