Week 11 NFL Picks: Tips, Odds and Over/Under Predictions for Sunday

There are plenty of changes for bettors to take into consideration entering Week 11 of the NFL season. Sunday will feature switches at the quarterback position for the St. Louis Rams, Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals, and some key playmakers, including Aldon Smith of the San Francisco 49ers, will be returning to action.

With so much uncertainty at many positions across the league, setting up a handful of over/under insurance bets could prove to be a wise move against savvy Vegas oddsmakers. This is the best time to lock in your wagers, as odds will surely continue to shift up until kickoff.

So, what should we expect from each of Sunday's contests? Here's a look at the odds and corresponding picks for each matchup, followed by a deeper look into a couple intriguing games.

Matchup	Spread (Over/Under)	Pick ATS	O/U	Reason
Tampa Bay at Washington	WAS -7.5 (45.5)	WAS	O	DeSean Jackson and Co. should have a field day against one of the league's worst secondaries.
Houston at Cleveland	CLE -3 (41)	CLE	O	See analysis below.
Denver at St. Louis	DEN -10.5 (51)	DEN	U	Peyton Manning puts on a clinic, but St. Louis won't score enough points to make the over.
Minnesota at Chicago	CHI -2.5 (46.5)	MIN	U	Jay Cutler's turnovers keep this game under and hand the Bears another loss.
San Francisco at NY Giants	SF -4 (44.5)	SF	O	Colin Kaepernick will tee off against the Giants, and New York's garbage-time points sends this one over.
Atlanta at Carolina	ATL -1 (47)	ATL	O	In a battle of horrible defenses, this one should have no problem hitting the over.
Cincinnati at New Orleans	NO -7.5 (51)	NO	O	See analysis below.
Seattle at Kansas City	KC -1 (42)	KC	U	Expect few points in a game that's controlled by the pace of the Chiefs offense.
Oakland at San Diego	SD -10 (45)	OAK	O	Derek Carr keeps this one close once again against a reeling Chargers secondary.
Philadelphia at Green Bay	GB -5.5 (55)	GB	O	Mark Sanchez played well in Week 10, but he's no Aaron Rodgers. Packers win in a shootout.
Detroit at Arizona	AZ -1 (41)	DET	U	The loss of Carson Palmer will really hurt the Cardinals against the league's best defense.
New England at Indianapolis	IND -3 (57.5)	NE	U	New England's defense steps up in this one, keeping the score under and earning a decisive road win.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of November 14.

Over/Under Lines to Bet

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3)

Over/Under: 41

This game features one of those aforementioned Week 11 changes, as Ryan Mallett is slated to take over at quarterback for the Texans. Mallett is highly unproven, having thrown a total of just four career regular-season passes, and he'll be making his first career start in his fourth year in the league.

While a change at quarterback may be one reason why Vegas chose to keep this game's over/under low, another factor is the availability of running back Arian Foster. According to NFL on ESPN, he's not expected to play:

With Mallett at quarterback and Alfred Blue taking over in the backfield, how will the Texans score points? Well, let's not overrate the Browns defense here. Cleveland does have a nice secondary, but this team has been terrible against the run, allowing an average of 134.2 yards per game on the ground, ranking 28th in the league.

Blue is inexperienced, but he's a capable running back, and the Browns have a knack for making most ball-carriers look good against them. Once Houston establishes the run, things will open up for Mallett to utilize his extremely strong arm and look for the speedy DeAndre Hopkins down the field.

On the flip side, Houston's defense has been just as bad this season. Yes, J.J. Watt is an absolute force, but aside from his stellar play, the Texans don't have much to write home about. After all, this defense is ranked 21st against the run and 29th against the pass.

The Browns are coming off a game in which all three of their running backs scored a touchdown. Don't underestimate quarterback Brian Hoyer, either. He's been very efficient this year and may get his favorite target in wide receiver Andrew Hawkins back this week, according to SiriusXM NFL Radio:

This may not be the prettiest game we see this week, but expect enough scoring to see it easily reach the over.

Prediction: Browns 27, Texans 23

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

Over/Under: 51

It's usually a bit scary taking an over in the 50s, but a game played in a wind-free, pass-friendly, warm environment like the Mercedes-Benz Superdome featuring two capable offenses should yield plenty of points.

The Saints have been known to light it up on their home turf, and last week's loss to the 49ers was the team's first in New Orleans in quite some time, according to ESPN's RJ Bell:

Coming into this game with a very balanced offensive attack, the Saints rank third in the league in passing yards and sixth in rushing yards. That's a pretty good combination against a Bengals team ranked 20th against the pass and 31st against the run.

Expect to see New Orleans put plenty of points on the board Sunday. After all, Cincinnati has not given up any fewer than 23 points in its past six games—the team is 2-3-1 in that span.

Still, the Bengals aren't slouches on the offensive end. They are coming off a dismal showing against the Browns; however, the team's woes in prime time are well-documented. Andrew Siciliano of the NFL Network tweeted the recent numbers:

The offense should be far more efficient Sunday and resemble more of the team that put up at least 27 points in three of its previous four games. New Orleans has one big weakness, and it's in the secondary. The Saints rank 24th in the league against the pass, giving Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, Mohamed Sanu and other weapons plenty of chances to produce points.

Prediction: Saints 34, Bengals 26