10 Predictions for How the MLB Offseason Will Change 2015 Fantasy Baseball
The first MLB offseason move already carries major fantasy baseball repercussions.
Rather than accept a $15.3 million qualifying offer to stay with the Colorado Rockies, Michael Cuddyer bolted to the New York Mets, signing a two-year contract on Monday, as ESPN New York's Adam Rubin reports.
This news provides a major hit to the veteran outfielder's fantasy value. Since joining the Rockies in 2012, Cuddyer hit .329/.393/.591 at Coors Field and .286/.332/.463 on the road. The second slash line is far closer to what everyone can reasonably expect in his new locale.
With Cuddyer gone, the Rockies are now less likely to move Carlos Gonzalez, another Colorado hitter with steep home-road splits. Anyone who owns him in a dynasty league can now rest a tad easier during the offseason.
This was the first of what will likely be many offseason developments, and they're all essential to watch from a fantasy standpoint. Ballparks play a pivotal factor, and there's also the matter of playing time and new roles evolving with a change of scenery.
Here's a look at 10 potential moves through trades and free agency that will impact the fantasy landscape next season.
Brett Anderson Escapes Coors Field for Greener Pastures
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The oft-injured Brett Anderson received his third second chance in 2014, posting a 2.91 ERA in eight starts for the Colorado Rockies. As a 26-year-old free agent, the talented lefty will draw several suitors offering a one-year prove-it deal loaded with incentives.
If he's smart, he'll flee Colorado, as Coors Field will hinder his chance of converting this opportunity into a better deal next offseason. He made four starts home and four away, submitting a 3.54 ERA at Coors and a 2.35 ERA on the road.
Several teams can use another starting pitcher, but a lower-market club doesn't have the cash to pay for an ace. The Minnesota Twins, Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals are all sensible choices that would bolster his fantasy stock. A reunion with the Oakland Athletics is also feasible with Jon Lester probably on the way out.
It's all a matter of health for Anderson, who has pitched 206.1 combined innings over the past four years. Put him in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and he becomes a late-round gamble capable of paying massive dividends for his new teams, both real and fantasy.
Sergio Romo Regains 9th-Inning Gig
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Sergio Romo has horrible timing. During his contract year, the usually steady relief pitcher posted a 3.72 ERA and 3.94 FIP, losing his closing job in the process.
Despite his down year, don't be surprised when a team steals him away from the San Francisco Giants to make him its ninth-inning man.
Through 58 innings, Romo still compiled 59 strikeouts to 12 walks, but he was plagued by the highest HR/FB percentage (13.0) of his career. Normalize that number, and the righty will be fine during his age-32 season.
Also working in his favor, people tend to weigh recent results more heavily. While that hurts for those looking at 2014 rather than his career, a micro look into that season shows a 1.80 ERA after the All-Star break.
Then there's the matter of a successful postseason, where he helped the Giants capture another title by allowing one run through seven innings, registering seven strikeouts with no walks. That improved his career playoff ERA to 2.11.
The Rockies, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox and Texas Rangers could all use an upgrade at the end of the bullpen, and Romo has that "closer experience" teams adore. All that will net him a return to save opportunities in 2015.
Mookie Betts Gets an Everyday Role
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The Boston Red Sox have an awfully crowded outfield. Daniel Nava and Allen Craig should platoon in one corner outfield spot with Yoenis Cespedes patrolling the other. That leaves defensive wizard Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts vying for center field.
In a limited sample size, the 22-year-old proved he is ready for a full-time MLB job. Betts hit .291/.368/.444 in 52 plate appearances, offering fantasy utility with five home runs and seven stolen bases. Given an entire season with regular playing time, he could emerge as a massive breakout option.
One way or another, he will get that opportunity. Conflicting thoughts have blossomed about Boston shopping Cespedes, but it now appears more likely than Boston dealing Betts. Hall of Fame baseball columnist Peter Gammons expects the youngster to play a prominent role for the Red Sox.
"This we know: [Ben] Cherington isn’t trading Mookie Betts, and Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Ortiz and Christian Vazquez are going to be in there every day with Betts and Pedroia at the top of the lineup," Gammons wrote.
If nobody moves, he should still beat out Bradley, who offset his defensive prowess with a .198/.265/.266 slash line. One way or another, Boston will address its current surplus, and Betts will get his chance in 2015.
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Andrew Miller Becomes Closer or Top 'Closer in Waiting' to Watch
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Although he never realized his ace ceiling as a starter, Andrew Miller thrived from the bullpen in 2014, generating a 2.02 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 14.87 K/9 ratio for the Baltimore Orioles. If that didn't capture everyone's attention, allowing one hit over 7.1 postseason innings certainly did.
Due to this rousing success, Miller won't come cheap. High-caliber relievers aren't a luxury many teams are willing or able to afford unless they plan on utilizing the reliever in a prominent role.
One of those teams mentioned for Romo could snag Miller instead to make him the closer. Such a move makes him a top-15 option and a stealth target for drafters who pass on the top tier of relief aces.
If not, Miller will sign as a setup man who is the next man up for save chances. He'd hold that role if he stays with the Orioles. Given his 7.31 K/9 ratio and 3.13 FIP, incumbent closer Zach Britton won't maintain his 1.65 ERA.
After a disastrous season from Joe Nathan, the Detroit Tigers could line up Miller as insurance and put their veteran on a short leash. They're one of a few teams who can afford such a luxury, and a bullpen implosion during the postseason could tip their hand.
David Robertson Shines Away from Big Apple
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Wherever David Robertson goes, he's going to close. After rejecting a qualifying offer on Monday that would have made him MLB's highest-paid reliever, as Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports, the 29-year-old is sure to remain a premium fantasy asset next season.
Robertson's value can only go up this offseason. Over his career, the flamethrower hoists a 3.10 ERA at home compared to a 2.55 mark away from Yankee Stadium. Those splits were divisive in 2014, as he submitted a 3.98 ERA at Yankee Stadium due to allowing five home runs at the bandbox.
They say wearing pinstripes is everyone's dream, but constantly getting compared to Mariano Rivera can't be any fun for Robertson. He can escape that shadow and an unfavorable ballpark by moving to one of several teams in need of a closer.
The Chicago Cubs have cash and a slew of young talent waiting to return them to the playoffs. They also have a gaping need for pitching, as they generated a 3.91 team ERA last season. Robertson is already comfortably a top-10 closer, but a move to the National League can inch him closer to the top tier.
Such a signing would also ignite a major ripple effect in New York, where his replacement joins him as a No. 1 fantasy closer.
Dellin Betances Becomes Elite Closer
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From a real-life standpoint, it behooves the Yankees to retain Robertson and keep Dellin Betances in his current role. Manager Joe Girardi stretched the rookie out over 90 innings, using him in high-leverage situations rather than reserving the 26-year-old for one particular frame.
Fantasy players, however, want the saves. Even as a middle reliever, Betances held value by racking up a 1.40 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 135 strikeouts. Some gamers even received 22 holds for their trouble. But just imagine if he had saves attached to those numbers.
If Robertson leaves, that's a reality. Adam Warren won't fend off a man who led all relievers in WAR during his transcendent rookie campaign. At that rate, drafters can count on one hand closers they'd prefer to Betances.
Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman get the edge due to bulkier track records. Greg Holland and Kenley Jansen are not far behind. After those guys, the No. 5 choice is either Betances or Robertson. Take away the saves, and the middle reliever is the superior pitcher.
Chase Headley Fortifies Value by Staying with New York Yankees
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Hitting in Petco Park is no fun. Outside of one 31-homer season in 2012, Chase Headley never accumulated more than 13 home runs, and his counting numbers were kept at bay in meager San Diego Padres lineups.
Not that he became Alex Rodriguez with the Yankees, but he amassed six long balls in 58 games after hitting seven through 77 contests on the Friars. The midseason move panned out for both parties, so it makes sense for them to maintain their working relationship longer.
According to ESPN New York's Wallace Matthews, the Yankees plan to make a serious push for Headley out of fear that Rodriguez can't handle everyday duties at third base. While Headley's stellar defense doesn't help fantasy owners, it makes him more important to New York.
Playing a full season with the Yankees, he could hit .260-.270 with 15 homers, a few steals and some solid run production. The change from Petco to Yankee Stadium makes him an interesting corner infielder going forward.
Atlanta Braves Free Evan Gattis
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The biggest power threat at catcher, Evan Gattis just needs more plate appearances to make a monster impact in fantasy formats. That may happen in 2015.
According to the New York Daily News' Joel Sherman, the Braves are "pushing Gattis hard" to other teams. American League clubs are biting with thoughts of implementing him as a designated hitter.
From a fantasy perspective, such a move would provide a seismic upgrade for Gattis' value. Despite receiving just 784 plate appearances over the past two years, he belted 43 combined home runs.
He's not horrible behind the plate, but the Braves still remained reluctant to give him a normal workload for a starting catcher. Not only does he have a chance to escape Atlanta, but he can do so on a team that plays him regularly without the physical burden of catching.
Mike Napoli found himself in a similar bind, but he hit 26 homers in 2010 when the Los Angeles Angels allotted him reps at first base. The following year, he hit 30 long balls on the Texas Rangers.
Gattis fosters that some power upside, and he'll remain eligible at catcher even if a new club doesn't play him a single inning there. Several AL teams could use his services, and such an arrangement makes him a top-five fantasy catcher.
Seattle Mariners Sign a Slugger, Hurt His Value
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The Seattle Mariners made the biggest move last offseason by poaching Robinson Cano from the Yankees. They improved to 87-75 with MLB's sixth-best run differential (plus-80), but it wasn't enough to make their first playoff trip since 2001.
With little help around Cano and Kyle Seager, the Mariners still faltered offensively, which leads them back to the open market in hopes of scouring another impact bat. Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported interest in Hanley Ramirez and Victor Martinez, with the designated hitter being the team's "priority."
The Mariners proved their willingness to spend, and now they have more incentive to make a move after falling just shy of the postseason. Now they're actually one big bat away from playing October baseball.
Whether it's Ramirez, Martinez or Nelson Cruz, the Mariners are poised to make another major signing. Whichever guy they land, his fantasy value tumbles.
Look at Cano, whose 14 homers matched his lowest output since his 2005 rookie season. In 2014, Safeco Field produced the lowest run rate, per ESPN.com's park factors.
Ramirez wouldn't be drastically hurt, but Martinez stands to lose much more. His career-high 32 home runs already seem unsustainable, so he'd tempt the regression gods by departing Comerica for Safeco.
A Top SP Lands with Chicago Cubs
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Outside of Jake Arrieta's emergence, the Cubs have little reason for excitement in their rotation. Theo Epstein has the finances to sign a front-line starter to accompany his burgeoning crop of position players, so expect a big name to play in Wrigley Field next season.
The question is which one. Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields are all viable candidates. They'll also bug the Philadelphia Phillies for Cole Hamels if they entertain offers for their ace.
Aside from Shields, who enjoys stellar defense from the Royals, any of those hurlers would improve their surroundings. Hamels would escape Citizens Bank Park, while Scherzer or Lester gets to tack on some easy strikeouts in the National League.
The Oakland Athletics knew they were getting a rental in Lester, and the Royals will still struggle to retain Shields despite reaching Game 7 of the World Series. Even Scherzer re-signing with the Tigers is in doubt after they acquired David Price in July.
That creates plenty of chances for Chicago to pounce. As most teams are looking to reel in their spending, the Cubs are well-positioned to walk away with a major coup.
Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.
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