Predicting the Most Hotly Coveted 2014-2015 MLB Free Agents
The offseason has officially started, and the rumor mill is getting hot.
There are a few names, Russell Martin and Yasmany Tomas in particular, who have gotten the most buzz thus far, but the big names in Jon Lester and Pablo Sandoval aren't far behind.
This list of players isn't the top free agents available, but rather the names that have been dominating the rumors to start the season, including a potential position change for the top hitter available this offseason.
As we wait to see if Clayton Kershaw can win the MVP, let's dive into the hot stove.
C: Russell Martin
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Russell Martin could not have picked a better time to be a free agent.
Not only did he have a career year last season with the Pirates, but also the next best catcher on the market is likely Geovany Soto. That's right, Geovany Soto.
As per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Cubs are already targeting Martin. Heyman also lists the Dodgers and Red Sox as possibilities. In addition, the Blue Jays have had internal discussions about signing him as well, per Jeff Blair ofSportsnet.ca. ESPN's Buster Olney (insider required) also mentions the Tigers as a possible fit for Martin. Jon Heyman breaks down what Martin is reportedly looking for:
"Martin is believed seeking a five-year deal considering that has been the precedent set for top catchers. Brian McCann, Yadier Molina and Miguel Montero all signed five-year deals, for $85 million, $75 million and $60 million, respectively. It should be noted that the Molina and Montero deals were done before free agency, and Molina's was done before he became commonly viewed as a superstar.
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Once teams realize that Martin is the only viable catcher out there, with tremendous value both on the field and in the clubhouse, more and more teams will be lining up to sign him.
3B: Pablo Sandoval
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Pablo Sandoval may owe Aramis Ramirez a few bucks by the time he signs his new contract. By exercising his half of his mutual option with the Brewers, Ramirez removed one of the few good fallback options for teams who didn't want to overspend on Sandoval.
Before free agency started, Sandoval said all the right things about staying with the Giants.
""I want to wear that jersey for the rest of my career," Sandoval said. "I'm going to go from what my heart tells me."
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One problem with his statement is that money talks, and by the looks of things, he'll be seeing a lot of money from teams outside of San Francisco. On Thursday, Sandoval's agent said his client is looking for a six-year deal, per Henry Schulman of the SF Chronicle, the agent also confirming that he's talked to a few teams. FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal may know which teams are interested in the three-time World Series champion:
"The Red Sox, Marlins and White Sox are among the teams with possible interest in Sandoval as a free agent. But the Giants remain the favorites to keep him, due to their long history of re-signing players who help them win championships.
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Taking Rosenthal's report one step further, according to SB Nation’s Joon Lee, the Red Sox reached out to Sandoval and his representation on Tuesday to express their interest. The Yankees are reportedly not interested in signing Sandoval, per the New York Daily News, but with the thought of the former World Series MVP signing in Boston circling around the rumors, things can change quickly.
3B: Chase Headley
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Meet the second member of the "Thank You Aramis Ramirez" club.
ESPN's Buster Olney (insider required) hypes Chase Headley as the clear No. 2 third baseman in the market behind Pablo Sandoval in what has quickly become a black hole for offensive production around baseball.
Headley's OPS with the Yankees, once he escaped the pitcher's haven that is Petco Park, was .768, a number that would have placed him in the top 10 in all of baseball last season. Let's not forget, Headley led the National League in RBIs just two seasons ago, so he isn't a one-year wonder.
The Yankees have already shown interested in re-signing Headley, per CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, but with Sandoval still on the market, the situation remains up in the air, per the New York Post.
FanGraphs believes Headley will land a three- or four-year deal between $50-56 million. I think he's going to wait out Sandoval and let him sign before doing anything. Once Sandoval is off the market, the teams that miss out on him will have no other good options left, and they will do whatever they can to sign Headley.
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OF: Yasmany Tomas
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Per CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, word is getting out about Yasmany Tomas' potential:
"Word is that, in addition to the Phillies, who could use help in the outfield, at least the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Dodgers and Padres have seen Tomas either privately or semi-privately in official workouts since the showcase, and the Red Sox, still in need of power, caught at least a peek since he borrowed their Dominican complex with permission for one of the team's recent workouts. The Mariners are believed to have a workout upcoming, with still more teams possible.
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Heyman reports Tomas is looking for a $100 million contract, surpassing Rusney Castillo's international record $72.5 million deal that he signed with the Red Sox this summer. The power OF's biggest suitor appears to be the Phillies, who are "all over" Tomas.
Tomas' agent Jay Alou may be a little biased, but he has strong predictions for his client:
"“He's special,” Alou said. ‘He's going to be Rookie of the Year and make the All-Star team. Yasmany Tomas has to be the most powerful guy I've ever seen. He absolutely devastates the ball to the opposite field.” He later continued, “He's like a big oak tree with roots in the batters box,” Alou said of Tomas. “He can't be moved.”
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As I mentioned with Headley, power is dwindling throughout baseball and bats like this don't come around very often. Tomas worked out for the D-Backs on Monday, per his agent's Twitter feed, so teams are quickly doing their homework in hopes of signing the slugger.
OF: Nelson Cruz
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After failing to sign Nelson Cruz last season, there are inklings that the Mariners are going to try and correct their mistake and sign him this offseason, per Bob Dutton of The News Tribune.
That is, if the Orioles don't re-sign him first.
Cruz went on record on Wednesday and said that returning to Baltimore is his first choice:
"“No doubt it’s my first choice,” Cruz said. “I’d love to be back. I understand the business. I know they’re interested in bringing me back. Hopefully we can work something out. I love everything about the city. I love my teammates. I love the organization. The way they treat their players is amazing. If we can work something, I’d be more than happy to come back.”
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For the Mariners, Orioles and any other team potentially interested in Cruz, they are going to have to pay a big price. CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported the 34-year-old outfielder is seeking a four-year deal "at big bucks." He also notes the Orioles are willing to offer a two-year deal, but there's no indication they are willing to go any further.
Yasmany Tomas and Pablo Sandoval could have an impact on where Cruz goes if a contending team isn't able to land the bat they want. A 40 home run bat doesn't come around very often, so Cruz's market should develop as the offseason wears on.
UTIL: Hanley Ramirez
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ESPN's Buster Olney (insider required) posed an interesting question in his column on Thursday: What if Hanley Ramirez announced he's switching positions to play the outfield? Here are a few tidbits:
"If he does this, embracing the idea of a position change, he will be viewed within a completely different context by club executives, and could make them more comfortable in offering a long-term contract.
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If Ramirez says flatly that he's ready to switch positions right now, then suddenly he could be transformed into the most attractive offensive player on the market other than Victor Martinez and Russell Martin. In 2014, when high-end pitchers seem to outnumber the high-end position players by a ratio of about 3 to 1, that can pay.
When healthy, Ramirez has proven to be one of the top hitters in baseball but his defense in the infield has become a huge concern. There are plenty of teams, Olney mentions the Mariners, Giants, Mets, Tigers and maybe the Cubs as potential fits if Ramirez were to announce his switch to the OF.
Whether he switches or not, Ramirez will be one of the most highly sought-after free agents. By moving to the outfield, it sounds like he will be opening up the market even more.
LHP: Jon Lester
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The Cubs are proving to be very aggressive this offseason, and one of the pitchers they are targeting is former Red Sox and A's starter Jon Lester, per CBS Sports' Jon Heyman.
The three-time All-Star, Lester is the top lefty on the market and while the Red Sox reportedly aren't looking for multiple top-of-the-rotation starters, it is believed they "will be most aggressive when it comes to pursuing Lester," per Rob Bradford of WEEI. The New York Daily News is reporting the Yankees will not pursue Lester, while his most recent team, the A's, haven't been mentioned in recent talks surrounding him.
FanGraphs believes Lester will land a six-year deal for around $130 million, so as the offseason rumor mill picks up, it will be interesting to see what other teams can afford to join the fray.
LHP: Francisco Liriano
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While Jon Lester is getting all the press as the top left-handed pitcher on the free-agent market, Francisco Liriano is someone who may end up giving him a run for his money.
| 2013-2014 Seasons | IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K | |
| Pitcher A | 433 | 31-19 | 3.10 | 1.20 | 397 | |
| Pitcher B | 323.1 | 23-18 | 3.20 | 1.26 | 338 |
Based solely on the innings pitched, we can see that "Pitcher A" is Jon Lester and "Pitcher B" is Francisco Liriano. However, remove that one stat, and the pitchers become eerily similar.
MLB Trade Rumors believes the market for Liriano could be expansive:
"A large number of teams are going to be in the market for rotation help, and many won’t be able to afford the likes of Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields. The Red Sox are said to be eyeing multiple starters and have been connected to Liriano, and the Cubs, too, are known to be seeking multiple starting pitchers. Both teams will have a protected first-round pick, as will the Astros, D’Backs, Rockies, Rangers and Twins, each of whom has some need in the rotation (it’s unclear if the Twins would have any interest in rekindling that relationship, however). I’ll also add the Mariners, Yankees, Giants, Royals and Dodgers as teams I could see entering the mix, though the M’s of course seem likely to first focus on their offense.
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The Pirates extended Liriano a qualifying offer, which means his new team will have to give up their top unprotected pick in order to sign him. However, with 12 teams potentially interested in him, Liriano could find himself with a lot of options to choose from this winter.
RHP: James Shields
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Even before James Shields helped the Royals into the World Series, his name was being tossed around the rumor mill.
Andy McCullough from The Kansas City Star reported that the Red Sox were likely the favorite to land Shields, but there were other contenders as well:
"Shields hails from Southern California and lives outside San Diego. Both the Angels and the Dodgers could be in the market for starting pitching. The Red Sox and Yankees both like Shields, who could market himself as a more affordable alternative to Lester and Scherzer.
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While the Yankees reportedly are not interested in any of the top-tier pitchers, including James Shields, per the New York Daily News, the Chicago Sun Times reports that he could be a fallback option for the Cubs. These teams will join the Royals in pursuit of the right-hander, as Jon Heyman reported in early October that Kansas City would make a run to re-sign him.
The free-agency period just started this week, so it is too early to tell how Shields is going to approach it. Will he wait for Max Scherzer, the top right-handed starting pitcher on the market, to sign? Or will he pounce on the first big offer he gets? There are big-market teams that will be vying for his services and we will continue to hear a lot of rumors about his potential destination as the offseason rolls along.
RHP: Edinson Volquez
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As a 24-year-old top prospect in 2008, Edinson Volquez had an All-Star season, winning 17 games with 206 strikeouts in 196 innings and a 3.21 ERA.
From 2009-2013, he was a shell of his former self, with a 4.94 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in over 500 innings including 32 starts with the Padres, in the most pitcher-friendly stadium in baseball.
However, this past season he re-found his groove. While his strikeouts were down a bit, he posted a career best 3.04 ERA with a career low 3.3 walks per nine innings. While his xFIP of 4.20 shows he was a little fortunate, it is right in line with his career average (4.17). The trimmed walk-rate has me believing he's capable of improving his career ERA of 4.44.
Volquez is just 31-years-old. He compares favorably to other members of the RHP free-agent market such as Aaron Harang, Ryan Vogelsong and Jason Hammel. Once the big boys sign (James Shields, Max Scherzer), Volquez's market will heat up and there will be multiple teams vying for his services.
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