AFC South: Betting NFL Season Win Totals

(Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

Over the next few weeks I will preview each NFL division from an over/under season win total perspective.  All totals and odds to win division are courtesy of Bowmans.com, as current as the date the article is published.  For additional division previews, please find links at the bottom of this article for previews of the NFC North, NFC South, NFC West and NFC East divisions.

Indianapolis: 10

With Peyton Manning getting virtually no practice time last offseason due to his bursa sac injury, Manning entered Week One rusty and the Colts lost easily to the Bears 29-13.  The rocky start continued through Week Eight when Indy sat at an unimpressive 3-4.  However the Colts flipped the switch starting the next week with a home win over New England, and then proceeded to follow up with eight more straight wins, to finish the season with a nine game winning streak and a 12-4 record.  That magical streak came to an abrupt halt in the postseason though, as they fell in overtime to the Chargers.

Indy hasn’t had fewer than 12 wins in any of the past five seasons, and haven’t had as few as 10 wins since 2002; however, that number, 10, is exactly what bookmakers have lined them at for this coming season.  In the eyes of some, that number may actually be too high.  About a month ago, making a bet on over 10 wins was the more popular choice, at -135, with the under coming in at a plus price, at +105.  Since then, money has been coming in on the under, with the under now sitting at -120, and over at -110.

Going into 2009, Indy returns basically the identical cast of '08 to the field.  However, gone are RB Dominic Rhodes and future hall-of-famer Marvin Harrison.  While Harrison has been Manning’s favorite target since '96, his production and health have slipped while his contract was going to be too expensive this year.  Even with Harrison only receiving 636 years last year, the Colts' passing attack still ranked fifth in the league, in part due to the ample amount of options Manning still has in Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark and Gijon Robinson, to name a few.  Also accounting for the Colts' high pass totals was the solid job the offensive line performed in pass protection, ranking third in sacks allowed.

The rushing attack ranked a measly 31^st last year and will surely miss Rhodes.  However, Indy will be hoping rookie Donald Brown will be an adequate replacement and someone who can push starter Joseph Addai for playing time.  Defensively, the Colts will have to tighten up their play versus the run, as they were a dismal 24^th, though they were very strong versus the pass, ranking sixth.  If Bob Sanders, who only played in six regular season games last year, can remain healthy, his presence will help elevate the whole defense.

Of course, while the roster looks much the same as the '08 version, the coaching staff has undertaken a complete makeover.  Tony Dungy has decided to pursue other interests at this stage of his life and both coordinators have also been replaced.  Ron Meeks left for Carolina

You're currently logged into Facebook

Do you want to share your Bleacher Report activity on Facebook?