(Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
Over the next few weeks, I will preview each NFL division from an Over/Under season win total perspective. All totals and odds to win division courtesy of Bowmans.com as current as the date the article is published.
For additional division previews please find links at the bottom of this article for previews of the NFC South, NFC West and NFC East divisions.
Detroit: 5
By now the Lion’s 2008 season needs very little introduction. 0-16 was good enough for the NFL’s worst-ever record and almost by default this team can only get better.
Not only did the Lions lose, and lose often last year, they often did it in ugly fashion. They gave up 517 points, had a negative 249 point differential, and ranked almost rock-bottom in most major statistical categories.
One thing in Detroit’s favor was that, when things were all said and done, they had faced the league’s second toughest schedule, having faced opponents with a combined 143-113 record.
The theme for 2009 will be that of new faces and trying to create a winning culture for a franchise that has averaged less than five wins over the last five years and hasn’t even seen the .500 mark in eight years. For Detroit’s sake, hopefully this year’s schedule will be more accommodating as it sets up as only the 21st toughest.
The new faces are plentiful, starting with a new GM in Martin Mayhew, as the Matt Millen era finally comes to an end, a new coach in Jim Schwartz and new offensive and defensive coordinators in Scott Linehan and Gunther Cunningham, respectively.
Mass changes were made on both sides of the ball in an attempt to overhaul the roster and give Schwartz some better parts to work with.
Through the draft, the Lion’s nabbed three players who were arguably the best at their positions and could be starters on the team for years to come. QB Matthew Stafford, TE Brandon Pettigrew and S Louis Delmas will most likely be counted on to contribute at some point this season and could be keys to the revival of this dormant franchise.
Maurice Morris will join Kevin Smith in the backfield and Bryant Johnson should line up opposite Calvin Johnson.
Several potential backups along a marginal offensive line were added, but some such as Jon Jansen and Ephraim Salaam are on the wrong side of 30 and others like Tony Fonotiu haven’t played in the league since 2006. By and large, this group will look very similar to the unit which struggled to create space or time for the offense to operate in 2008.
The Lions' defense, while hard-pressed to be much worse than they were in 2008, may actually have the potential to be the team’s strength in '09. For years, WLB Ernie Sims has struggled with sub-par talent around him, however this year he will be joined by Julian Peterson and Larry Foote, both productive starters in the past for the Seahawks and Steelers, respectively.
The secondary has the potential to have three new starters come opening day if rookie Delmas gets a chance, as well as the additions of Phillip Buchanon from Tampa and Anthony Henry from Dallas.
One of the biggest and most glaring concerns for Detroit this year will be their defensive line. This unit contributed to the 32nd ranking versus the rush and 31st ranking in generating sacks on opposing QBs. While the LBs and secondary made several upgrades, this group remained mostly the same.
The lone key addition is DT Grady Jackson, who is still serviceable, but will be 35 this year and could have trouble holding up for an entire season. Should Jackson start, he will combine with fellow DT Chuck Darby to make half the starters on the line well over 30. Darby will be 33.
While the Lions' schedule is slated to be on the easier side this year, it’s by no means a walk in the park either. The first five weeks will see Detroit play no team with worse than an 8-8 record from last year, including the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers in Week Five.
The schedule does lighten up after that, and the Lion’s will have the benefit of playing four teams who will be coming off a short week having played a Monday nighter. Three of those games will be at Ford Field and three of them will take place during the last four weeks of the season, which could help the Lions finish strong.
The pieces are in place for a rebuilding process to begin, and Daunte Culpepper still has enough talent to manage this team until Stafford is ready to take the reins.
It’s not often that even a five-win improvement from the season before would still not be enough to get over the posted win total, however tis’ the case with this year’s Lions. Obviously Detroit won’t go 0-16 again and a four or five-win season seems very probable.
Stranger things have happened and a strong second half to the season could push them over this win total. However, this team had been far too bad, for far too long, for me to be confident trying to justify at least six wins for them this year.
Prediction: Five seems about right, so if I had to I’d bet Under the total, but would prefer to wait and see if the number goes up at all before the season begins.
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