NFC South: Betting The NFL Season Win Totals

(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Over the next few weeks I will preview each NFL division from an Over/Under season win total perspective.  All totals and odds to win division courtesy of Bowmans.com as current as the date the article is published.  For additional division previews, please find links at the bottom of this article for previews of the NFC West and NFC East divisions.

New Orleans: 9

2008 saw another year go by where the Saint’s potent aerial attack, led by Drew Brees, went unrewarded.  New Orleans owned the most productive offense in the league as they racked up 463 points for, mostly coming through the air from a near record-breaking year by Brees.

Their Achilles Heel, though, was again their play on the defensive side of the ball.  All their offensive production was not enough to keep the ball out of their own end zone, as only six teams in the league managed to allow more than the 393 points the Saints' defense allowed.  A defense which ranked 17th vs. the rush, 23rd vs. the pass, and 22nd in sacks proved to be New Orleans' undoing as they went along the 2008 year mostly alternating wins and losses on their way to an 8-8 finish.

New Orleans’ opponents finished ’08 with a combined 127-129 record, but 2009 is set up to have them face the league’s eighth-toughest schedule.  In fact, the only teams they face this year with a sub-.500 record from last year are the Lions, Bills, and Rams.

Of the Saints' eight wins in 2008, only two of them came against teams with a winning record.  Those were games vs. the Bucs and Falcons. However, New Orleans struggled within their division overall, going 2-4.  They also struggled on the road, where their 2-6 record was a stark contrast to their 6-2 home mark. 

Changes were made this offseason in an attempt to improve things on the defensive side of the ball.  Gregg Williams was brought in as Defensive Coordinator.  He’s a veteran who’ll be looking to get more out of this group of defenders than he got from his group in Jacksonville last year, as the Jags allowed the fifth-most points in the AFC.

On the D-Line, Paul Spicer and Anthony Hargrove have been signed to replace the released Hollis Thomas and Brian Young, and to provide depth and extra insurance in the almost certain suspensions of Will Smith and Charles Grant from the StarCaps incident. 

The linebacking corps will also welcome the newly unretired Dan Morgan to the mix.

The secondary has the potential to see a slew of new starters, as the team cut S Kevin Kaesviharn and CB Mike McKenzie and lost SS Josh Bullocks in free agency.  In are safeties Pierson Prioleau and Darren Sharper, along with CBs Jabari Greer and 14th overall draft selection Malcolm Jenkins, who was seen by many as the top CB prospect in this year’s draft.

Outside of signing ex-Patriot FB Heath Evans to replace Mike Karney and parting ways with Deuce McAllister and David Patten, the Saints' offense remains mostly intact.  So far GM Mickey Loomis hasn’t made any additions to their 28th-ranked rushing attack.

However, word is he’s scouring the market to find a veteran bruising back.  Obviously having Reggie Bush sidelined a good portion of the year contributed to the running game's troubles, but there is little doubt the team lacks a proven back that can run inside the tackles.

Success in 2009 will most likely again come down to how far Drew Brees’s arm can carry the team, as he is the unquestioned key cog in New Orleans.  There’s no reason to think Brees won’t have another stellar season, especially with the return of Jeremy Shockey from injury. 

However, will the improvements on defense be enough, and how will the likely suspensions of Smith and Grant hurt them?  It’s hard to imagine Brees being able to put up as gaudy of numbers as he did in 2008, and with a seriously competitive schedule facing the Saints this year I predict improvement, but not much.

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