NFL Picks Week 8 Against the Spread

It’s part art. It’s part science. It’s mostly awesome.

That’s the world of sports gambling. And this time around, my art will be going up against a professional bettor’s science.

In one corner is Big Time Sharps’ Bill Davis, he of the patented Davis Equation, an algorithm chock-full of geeky mathematical statistics and trends. In the other corner is yours truly, he (me) of the geeky, hours-long, weekly couch-loitering, gut feels.

Which geek will win out? Let the game-predicting begin.

Davis Pick No. 1: Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 43 Points

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"Even though no Florida team (including these two) has looked impressive all season, the Dolphins and Jags both performed well coming off big wins last week. Jacksonville and Miami have allowed an average of only 278 and 296.5 yards per game over the past two games, respectively."  

Pick against the spread: "With the defenses performing extremely well, the Davis Equation has the total going just under the 43 points."

My Pick No. 1: Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals: Over 48 Points

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The Eagles average 30.5 points per game. The Cardinals average 23.3 points per game. That totals almost 54, and 54 is higher than 48. 

Pick against the spread: See? I can do math too! Bet the over.

Davis Pick No. 2: Detroit Lions (-3.5) over Atlanta Falcons

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"Detroit is coming into Atlanta with the conference’s worst running attack, averaging a paltry 82.4 yards per game. However, the Falcons’ ground attack is not much better at just 98.1 per game, and they have averaged just 13 points in their last three contests."

Pick against the spread: "With Detroit surging, the Equation has the Lions not only winning but also covering the 3.5 spread."

My Pick No. 2: Seattle Seahawks (-5) over Carolina Panthers

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Here are two struggling, underachieving teams, but one of them is a defending champ with a chip on its shoulder. Plus, somehow, the Panthers can lose, fall to 3-4-1 and still be leading their division. Meanwhile, a Seahawks loss could spell disaster.

Pick against the spread: The Hawks will fly high and ground the Panthers by more than five.

Davis Pick No. 3: Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers

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"The Colts and Steelers average 5.9 yards and 5.8 yards per play from scrimmage respectively, but that’s where their similarities end. The Colts average 77 offensive plays from scrimmage and 30.9 points per game while the Steelers average only 66 offensive plays from scrimmage and 22 points per game."

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the high-scoring Indianapolis Colts winning the game and covering the 3.5 point spread."

My Pick No. 3: Baltimore Ravens (-2) over the Cincinnati Bengals

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The Ravens are rolling. Their last three wins have come by a total margin of 81 points, and my South Jersey brethren quarterback Joe Flacco may be playing better than at any point in his career.

The Bengals are reeling. After starting out 3-0, they’re winless in their last three and might be without star receiver A.J. Green, as NFL Network's Albert Breer reports.

Pick against the spread: T’was the Ravens, winning and covering. Hard to believe they’ll get swept in the season series.

Davis Pick No. 4: Chicago Bears (+7) over the New England Patriots

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"New England barely squeaked out a win last week against the 1-6 New York Jets. Additionally, the Pats’ red-zone touchdown percentage is in the bottom third of the league at just over 54 percent.

"With all their weapons, the Bears last week gained a total of just 224 yards on offense. On the other hand, when they do actually find a way to get inside the 20, Chicago’s red-zone touchdown percentage is in the top third of the league at 68 percent."

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the Pats winning the game but not covering the largish seven-point spread. Go with the Bears as the dogs."

My Pick No. 4: St. Louis Rams (+7) over the Kansas City Chiefs

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Both teams are coming off impressive victories last week. However, I have nearly 15 years of experience watching Andy Reid-led teams to know that an impressive win is typically followed by a letdown.

Pick against the spread: The Rams should at least keep it close and cover. Plus, all of Kansas City's good mojo is being used by the Royals right now.  

Spread information courtesy of ESPN.com. All quotes from Bill Davis obtained firsthand.