A Quick Note on Value-Based Drafting!
I’m not going to write a strategy piece in this blog because KFFL has its own FREE PRESEASON GUIDE available. We have quite the library of articles and reports, so make sure to check that out after reading my blog.
I’ve been watching many drafts through Twitter and KFFL as well as checking them out in fantasy magazines. I agree, the stud running back theory is not as strong as it used to be. There is no doubt about it. You add the fact that there are always midround gems to take, such as DeAngelo Williams and Matt Forte last year. Just remember, there is no guarantee you’ll be the owner smart enough and lucky enough to grab the right one.
Last year, most owners took Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart over Williams in the middle rounds. Stewart was the popular pick to post better-than-average numbers, not Williams. When the dust settled Williams was the player with 1,515 rushing yards and 20 total touchdowns while Stewart had 836 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns. Granted, Stewart had a solid season, but those who banked on him being the one with the big numbers banked wrong.
I did not like either player last year, but where I valued them only left me with Williams as a choice because most had already taken Stewart. I would have grabbed Stewart myself but refused to reach for him as I watched him get drafted by someone else in every draft I was in. Because of solid draft strategy based on where I valued them and a little help from Lady Luck, I drafted the right one. It’s never a given that you will be able to grab the sleeper who turns into next year’s early-round pick.
Don’t forget to determine a base value—as used in value-based drafting—but remember, it’s not a strategy unto itself. There have been many who have believed that, and I have always taken pleasure in destroying them in leagues. It’s like taking candy from a baby! Value-based drafting is merely one part of your draft strategy, albeit one of the most important parts.
Let’s look at it from a common-sense approach. No matter how you slice and dice it, there are 64 to 96 receivers to choose from and, yes, a few top-tier players well above the rest. Regardless, even though the use of a running back-by-committee is increasing, it does not mean every team is going to have running backs sharing equal time. Don’t hold off too long when securing your running back corps, and I say this with good reason. The same reality holds true today that held true last year and every year as far back as I can remember. You cannot find quality running backs or impact running backs on the waiver wire. You can with wide receivers. You can even play the weekly matchup for your No. 3 fantasy receiver.
I’m not saying anyone is wrong in taking a wide receiver in the first round, I’m just saying don’t forget value-based drafting come draft day!
Don’t forget, I’m a Tweeter and post what’s happening in a breaking or timely manner. I also point you to solid links outside the KFFL world that can help you win your leagues. Follow me at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.
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