Predicting All 30 MLB Teams' Top Priority Target This Offseason
With Game 3 of the ALCS getting rained out on Monday night, let's turn our attention away from the postseason for a bit and focus on what promises to be another busy offseason around the league.
This year's free-agent class is headlined by a trio of starting pitchers in Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields, and there are plus arms behind them as well like Francisco Liriano, Jake Peavy, Brandon McCarthy and Aaron Harang.
On the offensive side of things, Hanley Ramirez, Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz, Russell Martin and Pablo Sandoval highlight a position-player class that also has its fair share of impact players.
The international market figures to be busy once again as well, with Cuban slugger Yasmani Tomas likely headed for a big payday and Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda a candidate to be posted.
With some teams looking to spend big and others simply looking to retool, all 30 teams have a different plan heading into the offseason.
What follows is a look at the one player that could be each team's top priority target this coming offseason, whether it is a player being re-signed, a free agent being brought in or a trade target being acquired.
Baltimore Orioles: DH Nelson Cruz
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The Baltimore Orioles already locked up one free agent-to-be when they handed veteran shortstop J.J. Hardy a three-year, $40 million extension last week.
Don't be surprised if they look to do the same with slugger Nelson Cruz, who turned out to be an absolute steal on a one-year, $8 million deal this season, as he led all of baseball with 40 home runs.
Cruz has made it known that he has enjoyed his time in Baltimore and would like to re-sign, according to a tweet from Rich Dubroff of CSN Baltimore, and that remains a very real possibility for the offseason.
The Orioles led all of baseball in home runs this past season, and with Chris Davis taking a big step backward, Cruz was an integral part of their attack hitting in the cleanup spot behind Adam Jones.
Cruz should see a significant raise over his 2014 salary and get a multi-year deal this time around, but expect the O's to do everything in their power to keep him in the fold.
Boston Red Sox: SP James Shields
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By the time the dust settled on the 2014 Red Sox, the only remaining starting pitcher from the team's World Series run the previous season was Clay Buchholz, as they went into full-blown fire-sale mode at the trade deadline.
The organization has an abundance of high-ceiling pitching prospects led by Henry Owens, Allen Webster, Matt Barnes, Anthony Ranaudo, Brian Johnson and July acquisitions Eduardo Rodriguez and Edwin Escobar.
However, they are lacking a legitimate staff ace to lead the way during the upcoming youth movement, and as a result, they figure to make a serious run at one of the Big Three starters.
The organization has been buried by long-term mega deals in the past, so James Shields may be the most attractive target of the three.
Chances are he will come cheaper than Jon Lester or Max Scherzer in terms of annual salary, and while something like a five-year, $100 million deal is by no means cheap, it could be more appealing than shelling out a six- or seven-year deal to one of the aforementioned duo.
Shields has plenty of experience pitching in the AL East; he's as durable as they come, with 200-plus innings pitched in each of the past eight seasons; and at 32 years old, he is still on top of his game.
Another option to shore up the rotation could be the trade market, and the Cincinnati Reds look like an obvious trade partner, as they will likely deal someone from the trio of Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos and Mike Leake and are in need of an outfielder, something the Red Sox have an abundance of.
Beyond targeting a starter, don't be surprised to see the Red Sox make a serious run at Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval, as incumbent Will Middlebrooks may be out of chances to prove he can be the guy at the hot corner.
New York Yankees: SP Brandon McCarthy
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The New York Yankees took a chance on Brandon McCarthy at the deadline last season, banking on some positive regression in the second half, and it wound up being one of the best trades of July.
The 31-year-old was just 3-10 with a 5.01 ERA in 18 starts with the Diamondbacks, but his 3.82 FIP was reason to think he was pitching better than those numbers showed.
He went on to go 7-5 with a 2.89 ERA (3.22 FIP) in 14 starts with the Yankees, and that has certainly boosted his free-agent stock significantly.
The Yankees could make a run at someone from the trio of Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields, but at this point, more $100 million mega deals are not the answer to getting this franchise back on track.
With healthy seasons from Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda, and McCarthy in the mix for a full season, the rotation could be a legitimate strength with a mid-level arm or two added to the back to fill things out.
Steve Adams of MLBTradeRumors.com predicted a three-year, $36 million deal for McCarthy this offseason in his free-agent profile of the right-hander.
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Tampa Bay Rays: C/DH Evan Gattis
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The Rays addressed the catching position last offseason by re-signing veteran Jose Molina and trading for Ryan Hanigan.
Those two split time behind the plate, with rookie Curt Casali also seeing some action, and all told, the catching position produced a .194/.274/.250 line with 19 extra-base hits and 48 RBI.
There is something to be said for how well those two handle the pitching staff, but some sort of offensive production from behind the plate would be nice.
Atlanta Braves slugger Evan Gattis provided plenty of production at the plate in his first year as an everyday player this past season, posting an .810 OPS with 22 home runs and 52 RBI in 369 at-bats.
With top prospect Christian Bethancourt knocking on the door, the team could look to deal Gattis this offseason to open up an everyday role for the 23-year-old, and the Rays make sense as a possible landing spot.
Gattis could split time between catcher, first base, left field and designated hitter for the Rays, and while his defense does not stack up to that of the two incumbent veterans, he could make a serious impact with his bat.
Toronto Blue Jays: LF Melky Cabrera
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After a terrible first season in Toronto in 2013 saw him post a .682 OPS, Melky Cabrera bounced back in a big way this past season, and he now looks like a prime candidate to be re-signed.
The Blue Jays took a chance on Cabrera when they signed him to a two-year, $16 million deal on the heels of a PED suspension during his time with the San Francisco Giants, and he more than delivered on his $8 million salary in 2014.
He finished the season with a .301/.351/.458 line that included 35 doubles, 16 home runs and 73 RBI for a 3.1 WAR.
The Blue Jays will almost certainly extend a qualifying offer to Cabrera to kick off the offseason, and he will no doubt decline the one-year, $15.3 million deal for a chance at a multi-year contract on the open market.
That said, the team still expects to make a competitive offer to keep him around once he does hit free agency, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.
Chicago White Sox: DH Victor Martinez
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The White Sox struck gold with their decision to sign Cuban defector Jose Abreu to a six-year, $68 million deal last offseason, and it looks like they will be in the market to add more offense this winter.
Bruce Levine of 670TheScore tweeted back in August that the White Sox are expected to make a run at Detroit Tigers slugger Victor Martinez this offseason, and Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe supported the idea that they will make a push to sign him.
There is some inherent risk to signing Martinez, as he will be entering his age-36 season next year, but there is no ignoring the numbers he put up for the Tigers this year.
Stepping into the cleanup spot in the Tigers lineup, Martinez hit .335/.409/.565 with 32 home runs and 103 RBI, as he actually out-performed reigning AL MVP and teammate Miguel Cabrera.
Expect the Tigers to make every effort to bring him back, especially if they plan to let Max Scherzer walk, but if he does hit the open market, the White Sox could make an aggressive push to sign him.
Cleveland Indians: SP Francisco Liriano
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The Indians lineup is essentially set, as they wait for the contracts of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn to expire after the 2016 season, but the starting rotation could use another veteran arm.
Corey Kluber emerged as one of the league's best pitchers in 2014, and behind him both Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar finished strong and figure to be key pieces of the future.
T.J. House (5-3, 3.35 ERA, 3.69 FIP), Trevor Bauer (5-8, 4.18 ERA, 4.01 FIP) and Josh Tomlin (6-9, 4.76 ERA, 4.01 FIP) are also in the mix to start, but there is a clear need for another proven arm to slot alongside Kluber.
Payroll constraints will keep the Indians out of the running for the Big Three, but a second-tier arm like Francisco Liriano could make a huge impact.
Their interest in the 30-year-old will likely hinge on whether or not the Pirates make him a qualifying offer, as they probably won't be willing to sacrifice a draft pick to sign him.
Given his injury history, it's hard to envision any team committing more than two years and perhaps a third-year option to the left-hander.
Something in the neighborhood of the two-year, $23 million deal Tim Hudson signed last offseason seems reasonable, and that could fall in the Indians' price range.
Liriano finished the year 7-10 with a 3.38 ERA and 175 strikeouts in 162.1 innings, including 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA over his final seven starts.
Detroit Tigers: DH Victor Martinez
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It's going to be a busy offseason for the Detroit Tigers—that much is for sure.
Their list of impending free agents is highlighted by two of the game's biggest stars in Max Scherzer and Victor Martinez, and also includes Torii Hunter, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Coke.
Scherzer is likely on his way out after turning down a six-year, $144 million offer last winter, as the Tigers will turn their attention to locking up deadline acquisition David Price instead.
On the other hand, Martinez will be much tougher to replace after an MVP-caliber season, and the team will make every effort to keep the 35-year-old in the fold for next year.
"He prefers to work something out with the Tigers, so they will get first crack at him," wrote Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe, so that is certainly working in the team's favor, but he won't come cheap.
Looking at the big picture, the Tigers' most pressing need is to fix the bullpen, and they should be in on a number of relievers including Andrew Miller, Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek and others.
As far as their No. 1 target is concerned, though, getting V-Mart back for another season of protection and production in the cleanup spot has to top the list.
Kansas City Royals: SP James Shields
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When the Royals pulled the trigger on acquiring James Shields before the 2013 season, the general consensus was that they had a two-year window to win with him atop the rotation, before he hit free agency and took more money elsewhere.
That may still wind up being the case, but it looks like the Royals at least have a chance of re-signing him, and the team's success this season is working in their favor on that front.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported that the team intends to make a run at re-signing him, and that could mean handing out a team-record deal to the workhorse right-hander.
Shields is already the highest-paid player on the Royals roster at $13.5 million, and a salary in the $20 million range seems like a reasonable guess for what he'll command on the open market.
That's a steep price for the small-market Royals, but that is also a very different-looking rotation without him at the top. Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy have plenty of upside, and veterans Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Vargas are solid, but there is little question who the leader of that group is.
Minnesota Twins: SP Justin Masterson
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The Minnesota Twins handed out the two biggest free-agent contracts in team history last year in an effort to improve what was the league's worst starting rotation.
The bigger of those two deals, in Ricky Nolasco (four-year, $49 million), wound up being a flop in his first year with the team, but the other, in Phil Hughes (three-year, $24 million), was one of the best signings of the offseason.
After going 4-14 with a 5.19 ERA in his final season with the Yankees, Hughes did a complete 180, finishing his first year in Minnesota at 16-10 with a 3.52 ERA (2.65 FIP) and a record 11.6 K/BB ratio.
Despite his success, the Twins' rotation was still a disaster as a whole, finishing last in the majors with a 5.06 ERA.
As a result, they will likely be looking for similar buy-low candidates this offseason, and Justin Masterson might be the best of the bunch.
After a breakout 2013 when he was 14-10 with a 3.45 ERA, the right-hander went just 7-9 with a 5.88 ERA this past season. A 4.50 FIP and some early-season control problems suggest he could be in line for some positive regression, and his track record shows he can be an ace-caliber guy when he's right.
Something like the one-year, $10 million deal Dan Haren received from the Los Angeles Dodgers last offseason would make sense, as he looks to rebuild some value.
Houston Astros: 3B Chase Headley
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With a promising rotation led by the breakout duo of Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh, and a good offensive core in place with Jose Altuve, Chris Carter, George Springer and Jon Singleton, the Astros have taken a step in the right direction.
Their biggest weakness at this point looks to be the left side of the infield, where shortstop Jonathan Villar (.209 BA, .620 OPS) and third baseman Matt Dominguez (.215 BA, .586 OPS) were among the least productive players at their respective positions.
There is an outside chance the team could make a run at Hanley Ramirez this offseason, as it has plenty of money to spend, but a more realistic target may be third baseman Chase Headley.
The 30-year-old Headley will likely never return to the dominant form he showed in the second half of the 2012 season, but he showed he can still be a plus contributor with the bat during his time with the Yankees.
He hit .262/.371/.398 with six home runs and 17 RBI in 58 games with the team, and finished the year with 20 doubles and 13 home runs overall in 470 at-bats.
On top of his offensive contributions, Headley is also one of the best defensive third basemen in the league. He led the position with a 23.0 UZR/150 and ranked third with 13 Defensive Runs Saved, according to FanGraphs.
Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com projected a four-year, $48 million deal in his free-agent preview of Headley, and that would certainly represent a splash for the rebuilding Astros.
Los Angeles Angels: RP Andrew Miller
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Asked about the team's offseason plans following its early departure from the postseason, Angels GM Jerry DiPoto told reporters that the team will likely stick to minor moves this winter.
"We'll continue to find more ways to create more depth on the pitching staff," he said. "The bench part of our team, that ninth to 13th, even 15th player, is going to be a focus of our offseason...We feel we're tweaks and turns from being a very good team again."
One area that was a clear weakness this past season was left-handed relief pitching.
The one-two punch of Joe Smith (76 G, 1.81 ERA) and Huston Street (61 G, 1.37 ERA), as well as both Kevin Jepsen (74 G, 2.63 ERA) and Mike Morin (60 G, 2.90 ERA), had nice seasons, but all four of those guys are right-handed.
Joe Thatcher was acquired at the deadline in an effort to add a viable southpaw, but he wound up left off the postseason roster.
The best lefty on the market by a long shot will be Andrew Miller, who split the season between the Red Sox and Orioles, appearing in 73 games and posting a 2.02 ERA, 0.802 WHIP and 14.9 K/9.
He won't come cheap, and there will be no shortage of teams interested, but he could make a real difference alongside Smith in a setup role next season.
Oakland Athletics: 2B Stephen Drew
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With Jed Lowrie and Alberto Callaspo set to depart in free agency, and incumbent second baseman Eric Sogard providing next to nothing offensively, the middle infield situation in Oakland will have to be addressed this offseason.
While the team traded top prospect Addison Russell at the deadline, it has another high-ceiling shortstop prospect on the way in Daniel Robertson.
The 20-year-old hit .310/.402/.471 with 37 doubles, 15 home runs and 60 RBI last season, but he did it in a full season at the High-A level, and he is still at least a year or two away from making an impact at the big league level.
That puts the team in the market for a stopgap option at the shortstop position, and a reunion with 2012 waiver addition Stephen Drew could make sense for both sides.
Drew should come relatively cheap after a rough 2013 season, and will likely have to settle for a one-year deal to rebuild his value.
The 31-year-old did not sign a contract until the middle of May last year, and he was playing catch-up the rest of the way, hitting just .162/.237/.299 in 271 at-bats. He is capable of significantly more, and if nothing else he would provide solid defense, which the team values.
Another option could be former first-round pick Cliff Pennington, who will likely be traded or simply non-tendered by the Diamondbacks this offseason.
Seattle Mariners: LF Nelson Cruz
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The Mariners nearly signed Nelson Cruz last offseason, as they had a deal in place for a one-year, $7.5 million contract that included a $9 million option for 2015, according to Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune.
Ownership ended up nixing the deal, fearing how the slugger would respond after his 50-game PED suspension in 2013, and that wound up being a huge mistake.
Cruz went on to lead all of baseball with 40 home runs, and the Mariners found themselves in desperate need of a right-handed power bat to slot between Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager when bargain signing Corey Hart did not pan out.
The Orioles are expected to make every effort to retain Cruz, but if he does hit the open market, the Mariners will have a chance to rectify their mistake. He won't come nearly as cheap as that proposed deal above, but he fills their biggest need and could be enough to push the team over the top.
The Mariners have also been linked to Cuban defector Yasmani Tomas, who is expected to command a deal north of $100 million this winter. He is certainly an intriguing target, but the team may be more inclined to pursue the known commodity that is Cruz, who should also come on a shorter deal.
Texas Rangers: SP Edinson Volquez
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The Texas Rangers used 15 different starting pitchers last season, but they may not be in as bad a shape as one might think heading into the 2015 season.
Yu Darvish gives them a bona fide ace, Derek Holland (5 GS, 2-0, 1.46 ERA) looked great once he finally returned from an offseason knee injury and Nick Tepesch showed signs of being a viable back-of-the-rotation arm.
Adding one more veteran to the mix could be enough to at least make this a league-average rotation, and that is legitimately saying something after how bad they were this past season.
Edinson Volquez began his career with the Rangers before being shipped to the Reds in the deal that brought Josh Hamilton to Texas, and he could be a nice mid-level addition after a resurgent season in Pittsburgh.
After settling for a one-year, $5 million deal, he ended up being a terrific bargain, going 13-7 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.230 WHIP and even earning the start in the Wild Card Game.
The Pirates could look to re-sign him, but he will no doubt be looking for a multi-year deal and they may not be willing to oblige. Something like a two-year, $18 million deal on the open market seems reasonable given his inconsistent track record and middling strikeout numbers.
Atlanta Braves: SP Jake Peavy
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With GM Frank Wren fired and a new front office regime set to take over, there could be some significant changes coming for the Braves this offseason.
Dumping B.J. Upton and trading Evan Gattis to open up a spot for top prospect Christian Bethancourt seem like very real possibilities, but as far as targets the team is expected to pursue, starting pitching would seem to top the list.
Alex Wood and Julio Teheran give them a good, young one-two punch atop the rotation, and Mike Minor pitched better in the second half after some early-season struggles, but the rest of the staff is a question mark.
Veterans Aaron Harang and Ervin Santana are set to become free agents, and it's hard to count on anything from Kris Medlen or Brandon Beachy as they make their both make their way back from second Tommy John surgeries.
Re-signing Santana is one option, but the team could also look to the available free-agent market to add a veteran presence to its rotation, and Jake Peavy is someone it has shown interest in before.
The Braves pushed hard to acquire the right-hander from the Padres prior to the 2009 season, and they were in the mix once again at the deadline this season, according to The Boston Globe.
Peavy eventually landed with the Giants, and he was terrific after returning to the NL, going 6-4 with a 2.17 ERA in 12 starts following the trade.
The Alabama native could like the idea of moving closer to home, and he would provide the Braves' young staff with a fiery veteran leader.
Miami Marlins: 2B Hector Olivera
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The Marlins went outside the box to fill the void at third base last season when they signed Casey McGehee after a one-year stint in Japan, and they could do the same to address the second base situation this offseason.
It remains to be seen when Hector Olivera will establish residency and be declared a free agent after defecting from Cuba at the end of September, but he would represent the top second base option on the market if he were available.
The 29-year-old was ranked as the No. 6 player in Cuba by Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required) back in August, and he was one of the top Cuban players at the 2009 World Baseball Classic.
Another article from Badler points to Olivera missing the entire 2012-13 season with thrombosis in his left biceps, and missing the last World Baseball Classic as a result.
He came back strong this past season, though, hitting .316/.412/.474 in 273 plate appearances with seven home runs and more walks (38) than strikeouts (25).
"At his best, Olivera (listed at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds) had been one of the most well-rounded players in Cuba, showing a combination of hitting ability, power, speed and size," wrote Badler.
He's certainly an unknown commodity, but for a Marlins team that hit .236/.303/.334 at the second base position this past year with the likes of Donovan Solano, Ed Lucas, Jordany Valdespin and Derek Dietrich manning the position, it's a chance worth taking.
New York Mets: SS Hanley Ramirez
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The most interesting storyline of the upcoming offseason might wind up being how the market for shortstop Hanley Ramirez develops.
The 30-year-old is a lock to receive a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, but with Corey Seager waiting in the wings, it's unlikely that they will offer him a multi-year extension, according to ESPN's Buster Olney (subscription required):
"The two sides talked about a multi-year deal last offseason, but Ramirez wanted a lot more than what the team was willing to offer, and now it looks as though they could be moving in different directions. Rival evaluators believe the Dodgers could give him a qualifying offer with the expectation that he would reject it and head elsewhere.
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Despite his injury history, Ramirez will be looking for big money in free agency, and Steve Adams of MLBTradeRumors.com points to large-market teams like the Yankees, Mets and Angels as making up the potential market for him.
The Mets are a team that will be looking to take a major step forward next season, and while they have a dynamic young pitching staff, their offense is still lagging behind.
David Wright, Lucas Duda and Curtis Granderson give them a decent middle-of-the-order trio, but adding another right-handed power bat like Ramirez could push their offense over the top.
Ruben Tejada and Wilmer Flores have done little to prove they can handle the everyday shortstop job, and Ramirez could provide some stability at the position even if he is a below-average defender.
Philadelphia Phillies: LF Yasmani Tomas
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One of several teams that could have Cuban outfielder Yasmani Tomas atop their wish list this offseason, the Phillies were named as one of six teams showing strong interest in the slugger in a tweet from Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.
The Phillies are expected to work on trimming some of the fat from their roster this offseason, and could even look to deal ace Cole Hamels if the price is right, but at the same time they remain a team unlikely to commit to a full-scale rebuild.
With Domonic Brown taking a big step backward and Marlon Byrd a candidate to be traded, adding the soon-to-be 24-year-old Tomas could bring a desperately needed infusion of young talent to the lineup.
"A right-handed hitting corner outfielder, Tomas can hit towering home runs thanks to the strength from his thickly-built 6-foot-1, 230-pound frame. Tomas has 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale," wrote Ben Badler of Baseball America.
Fellow countryman Jose Abreu landed a six-year, $68 million deal last offseason, and after seeing how well his game translated to the big leagues, Tomas will likely command significantly more.
Right-handed power is in short supply these days, and in what is an overall thin market for position-player talent, a seven-year deal in the $80-100 million neighborhood seems like a very real possibility for Tomas.
Washington Nationals: 2B Asdrubal Cabrera
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Despite another disappointing NLDS exit, the Washington Nationals remain one of the most complete teams in all of baseball, and they won't have much to do this offseason outside of some minor roster tweaking.
Second base is one area that will need to be addressed, and at the end of the day, re-signing deadline acquisition Asdrubal Cabrera may wind up being their best option.
The question will be whether Cabrera is open to remaining at second base, as he would likely be able make more money on the open market as a shortstop, especially following the J.J. Hardy extension.
"A team like this team, a good team that want me to play second, I would love to stay here," Cabrera told Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com. "I just want to win. I've got eight seasons already. I want to be in the World Series one day.
If Cabrera does wind up bolting, the team could take a run at Stephen Drew or Jed Lowrie if they are willing to commit to playing second, or else it could give Danny Espinosa another shot at winning the job.
Chicago Cubs: SP Jon Lester
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No big shock here, as the Chicago Cubs have been linked to Jon Lester for some time now.
"Multiple industry sources say the Cubs are targeting Lester and will make a run at him this winter, trying to set a foundation piece in the rebuild at Clark and Addison," wrote Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago.
With the emergence of Jake Arrieta (10-5, 2.53 ERA, 2.26 FIP) and Kyle Hendricks (7-2, 2.46 ERA, 3.32 FIP), the Cubs have some of the makings of a solid rotation, but they are still in need of that bona fide ace to lead the way.
Lester is just that, as the 30-year-old is coming off the best season of his career, going 16-11 with a 2.46 ERA (2.80 FIP) and 220 strikeouts in 219.2 innings.
The Cubs will be competing with AL East powerhouses Boston and New York in what could turn into a bidding war to land the left-hander, and just last winter they lost out to the Yankees in their bid for Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka.
The time is now for the Cubs to make a splash, though, and if they truly intend to take that next step in 2015, it means adding one of the Big Three.
Lester has a working relationship with Theo Epstein from his time in Boston, and he looks like the best option for the North Siders as things stand right now.
Cincinnati Reds: LF Daniel Nava
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It was already mentioned back on the Boston Red Sox slide, but the Reds and Red Sox look like ideal trade partners this offseason.
The Red Sox are looking to improve their rotation, and the Reds figure to be in the market to move someone from the trio of Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos and Mike Leake, as all three are set to hit free agency at the end of the upcoming season.
Top prospect Robert Stephenson and left-hander Tony Cingrani are both waiting in the wings to take over a rotation spot, so the Reds can afford to move one of those pitchers in an effort to address other needs, with left field among the biggest.
Daniel Nava could be acquired as one piece of a bigger package for one of those pitchers, and while he failed to match his 2013 numbers this past season, he was still a 3.3 WAR player.
Nava has plus on-base skills, hitting .270/.346/.361 in 363 at-bats in 2014, and there is reason to think he would benefit from seeing everyday at-bats.
Top prospect Jesse Winker still looks like the future in left field for the Reds, but Nava would give them a productive stop gap, as this team is still in a position to win now with some retooling.
Milwaukee Brewers: 1B Adam LaRoche
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Despite their disappointing second-half collapse, the Milwaukee Brewers remain in fairly good shape heading into next season, and they should once again be in the middle of things in the NL Central.
One area in clear need of an upgrade is first base.
The team settled for a platoon of Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay this past season, with rookie Matt Clark seeing time down the stretch, and all told they received a .207/.287/.356 line with 19 home runs and 61 RBI from the position.
With the Nationals expected to decline their end of a $15 million mutual option with Adam LaRoche to open up the first base job for Ryan Zimmerman, the Brewers will have a prime opportunity to upgrade by adding the 34-year-old slugger.
LaRoche hit .259/.362/.455 with 26 home runs and 92 RBI in just 494 at-bats this past season, and he is quietly closing in on 300 home runs (243) and 1,000 RBI (838) for his career.
Provided he can be had on a two-year deal, there is no reason the Brewers should not do everything in their power to sign him this offseason.
Pittsburgh Pirates: C Russell Martin
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The Pirates made headlines two years ago when they signed Russell Martin away from the New York Yankees with a two-year, $17 million deal, and that wound up being one of the best signings in franchise history.
Martin was good for 9.8 WAR in his two years with the team, ranking as one of the best catchers in the game both offensively and defensively and helping lead the Pirates to consecutive postseason appearances.
He hit .290/.402/.430 with 20 doubles and 11 home runs in 379 at-bats this past season, and there is reason to think the 31-year-old should have at least a couple more prime offensive seasons in the tank.
As the top free-agent catcher by a landslide, Martin is not going to come cheap, but the Pirates appear ready to stretch the payroll if it means keeping him around.
"He's an example of a player we're going to need to do what we can (to sign)," owner Bob Nutting told Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. "We're going to need to stretch. We're probably going to go beyond what a rational deal is. He's a player who we love and respect and we hope he's back.”
The Pirates will no doubt start off by making him a qualifying offer, and Biertempfel notes that a three- or four-year deal in the $40-50 million range could ultimately be what it takes to sign him.
With no real replacement in-house unless they feel Tony Sanchez is ready for an expanded role, and a virtually nonexistent free-agent market behind him, overpaying to keep Martin might not be the worst thing in the world.
St. Louis Cardinals: RP Pat Neshek
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After a busy offseason last year, the Cardinals figure to be fairly quiet this time around, as they have no glaring holes offensively and figure to have a myriad of rotation options once again with a healthy Michael Wacha and the emergence of Marco Gonzales.
That leaves the bullpen as their likely focal point this winter, and the biggest decision they make will be whether to re-sign Pat Neshek or let someone else buy for his All-Star performance this season.
Neshek made the Opening Day roster on a minor league deal, and has been one of the best setup men in baseball pitching with a $1 million salary.
He finished the regular season with a 1.87 ERA, 0.787 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 over 71 appearances.
A three-year deal seems to be the norm for elite-level setup men these days, but there is a chance the 34-year-old Neshek could agree to a two-year deal depending on how the market pans out.
If they don't bring back Neshek, expect the Cardinals to sign someone else to fill that void, with Luke Gregerson, Jason Frasor, Jason Grilli and Sergio Romo among the top right-handed setup options on the market.
Arizona Diamondbacks: SP Aaron Harang
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The Diamondbacks attempted to add a veteran presence to their starting rotation last offseason when they signed Bronson Arroyo to a two-year, $23.5 million deal.
Praised for his durability after making at least 32 starts in nine straight seasons, Arroyo was instead limited to just 14 starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery, as that move, like much of the Diamondbacks' season, failed to go as planned.
Josh Collmenter and Wade Miley figure to be locked into two rotation spots for the upcoming season, and Patrick Corbin should be back at some point from a Tommy John surgery of his own.
After those three, it will be Randall Delgado, Vidal Nuno, Chase Anderson, Trevor Cahill and top prospect Archie Bradley all vying for spots this coming spring.
Notably absent from that group is a veteran presence, and the team could give that another go this winter by making a run at a former teammate of Arroyo's in Aaron Harang.
Harang enjoyed a resurgent season with the Braves, going 12-12 with a 3.57 ERA (3.57 FIP) in 204.1 innings, all on a one-year, $1 million deal.
The 36-year-old should be able to get a two-year deal, but his spotty track record prior to last year will likely keep the value well below what Arroyo received last winter.
If he can be had on something like a two-year, $15 million deal, it would be a move worth making for the retooling Diamondbacks.
Colorado Rockies: SP Roberto Hernandez
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The Colorado Rockies continue to struggle with fielding a viable five-man rotation, and they have had a hard time luring impact free agents over the years, so expect them to be bargain-hunting this offseason.
One name that could make sense is Roberto Hernandez, who was 8-11 with a 4.10 ERA in 164.2 innings of work last season, splitting the year between the Phillies and Dodgers.
Back when he was pitching under the name Fausto Carmona, the big right-hander relied on a four-seam fastball in the high-90s with a plus slider/changeup combo to back it up.
These days he leans heavily on a sinker, throwing the pitch 54.6 percent of the time last year, according to FanGraphs.
That bodes well for pitching in Coors Field and makes him a nice middle-of-the-rotation target on a deal similar to the one-year, $4.5 million contract he received from the Phillies last winter.
Someone like Justin Masterson, another sinkerballer, would also be an intriguing target. However, he will be looking to rebuild some value on a one-year contract and pitching for the Rockies will not be the place to do that.
Los Angeles Dodgers: C Russell Martin
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No disrespect to A.J. Ellis and his monster NLDS performance (7-for-13, 2B, HR), but the Dodgers could certainly be looking to upgrade behind the plate this offseason.
Ellis hit just .191/.323/.254 with 12 extra-base hits and 25 RBI in 283 at-bats during the regular season, and his backups Drew Butera and Tim Federowicz provided similarly empty batting lines.
All told, the team got a .181/.283/.261 line from the catcher position, and while Ellis does a nice job handling the staff, he may be better suited in a backup role at this point in his career.
That makes former Dodger Russell Martin an obvious target, as he is coming off a monster season offensively in which he hit .290/.402/.430 with 20 doubles and 11 home runs in 379 at-bats for the Pirates.
Martin will receive a qualifying offer from Pittsburgh, and the Pirates are expected to make every effort to re-sign him. However, one has to think the Dodgers will be able to offer him more money if they are serious about adding him.
Finding a bridge from departing free agent Hanley Ramirez to prospect Corey Seager at shortstop is also a need, as someone like Jed Lowrie or Stephen Drew could be a fit.
The bullpen also needs to be addressed after its postseason struggles, but as far as one name ranking as their top target, it looks like Russell Martin is the guy at this point.
San Diego Padres: LF Yasmani Tomas
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It is not often that the San Diego Padres are mentioned as players for one of the market's top free agents, but they are one of six teams showing strong interest in Cuban slugger Yasmani Tomas according to a tweet from Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.
Last offseason's signing of Joaquin Benoit to a two-year, $15.5 million deal was the largest free-agent signing in franchise history, and the three-year, $52 million extension the Padres gave Jake Peavy during his time with the clubs remains the largest contract they have ever given out.
With the price for the 23-year-old Tomas expected to be in the $80-100 million range over six or seven years, this is uncharted territory for the Padres.
"We have definitely expanded our international focus under A.J," chairman Ron Fowler said of new GM A.J. Preller (via the San Diego Union-Tribune).
For a team that ranked dead last in team batting average (.226), OPS (.634) and runs per game (3.30) this past season, adding the powerful Tomas could provide a huge boost.
The Padres have already held two private workouts for Tomas, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America, so the reported interest is legit. It's just a matter of how much they are willing to shell out on a relatively unknown commodity.
San Francisco Giants: 3B Pablo Sandoval
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Pablo Sandoval has not always played up to his full potential during his time with the San Francisco Giants, and he will likely cost somewhere in the $90-100 million range to re-sign, but that looks like a necessary expense for the Giants.
The 28-year-old hit .279/.324/.415 this past season with 16 home runs and 73 RBI, numbers that are down from his career slash line of .294/.346/.465.
Still in the prime of his career, Sandoval is still more than capable of being a .300 hitter and hitting 20-plus home runs, and an impressive postseason track record doesn't hurt his value any.
At the end of the day, though, it's a matter of the Giants really not having any other options.
If they let Sandoval walk, that would mean either overpaying to sign Chase Headley, or exploring a more creative in-house option, like shifting Buster Posey to third base and handing the catching job to prospect Andrew Susac.
If something like the five-year, $90 million deal they gave Hunter Pence winds up being what it costs to retain Sandoval, that looks like an investment worth making for the Giants.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, and accurate through Monday, Oct. 13.
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