Calvin Johnson Injury Derails Lions QB Matthew Stafford's Fantasy Value

Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford goes as Calvin Johnson goes, so an injury situation for the latter should most certainly concern fantasy football owners of the former.

Stafford has been a boom-or-bust player, but the peaks and valleys normally coincide with the production and health of Megatron, whom Paula Pasche of the Oakland Press says is no guarantee to suit up this week against Minnesota:

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A decision has been made on whether Calvin Johnson will play, but Caldwell won’t make it public. The coach said a few weeks ago he didn’t think Johnson would play and then he did. Reading between the lines, sounds like he’ll sit. Injury report at 4 p.m. could reveal more.

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For owners who have been along for the ride so far, Stafford has been something akin to a rollercoaster: 

WK	OPP	YDS	TD	INT/FUM	PTS
1	NYG	346	2	0 / 0	29
2	@Car	291	1	1 / 0	13
3	GB	246	0	2 / 1	3
4	@NYJ	293	2	0 / 0	25
5	Buf	231	1	1 / 0	11

Johnson has caught a total of three passes as a decoy over the course of the past two games, so even if he suits up, a week-long bout with injury suggests he will be nothing more than a high-profile distraction once again.

With Johnson hobbled, Stafford was sacked a career-high six times last week on the way to miserable fantasy production. Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press notes that a lack of Megatron and downright iffy line play has placed Stafford on a dangerous trajectory:

Conventional wisdom says the former Georgia star will still get the ball out quickly against the Minnesota defense, but it is a unit that allows the ninth-fewest points to quarterbacks this season despite a pass-happy slate against New England, New Orleans, Atlanta and Green Bay.

Keep in mind that, while Golden Tate has back-to-back games with more than 100 yards and is a solid No. 2 wideout, pass-catcher extraordinaire Reggie Bush may also miss the encounter with the Vikings, per Birkett.

Now, this is not to suggest that owners should dump Stafford or look to sell high, although poking around to see what is out there certainly could not hurt. 

The schedule for Stafford the rest of the way truly is a mixed bag, though:

WK	OPP	Rank vs. QBs (Avg. points surrendered)
6	@Min	9 (13.8)
7	NO	27 (18.2)
8	@Atl	19 (15.2)
9	BYE
10	Mia	4 (12.8)
11	@Ari	28 (19.0)
12	@NE	2 (12.2)
13	Chi	21 (16.4)
14	TB	23 (17.6)
15	Min	9 (13.8)
16	@Chi	21 (16.4)
17	@GB	5 (12.8)

There are matchups there, such as a Week 7 encounter with New Orleans, that should Johnson miss, Stafford will still be able to post decent fantasy production. There are others, true to Stafford's habitual up-and-down performances, that it matters little whether Megatron takes the field.

In short, Stafford is both a matchup-based play and a Johnson-health-based play. During a season in which unknowns such as Austin Davis can explode for 20 or more points based on a favorable matchup, there is little reason to roll the dice with Stafford sans the league's best wideout. 

Stafford should be on the bench this week, with careful measures taken in subsequent weeks centered around Johnson's health. There are far too many predictable outcomes at the position to roll with any one player at quarterback due to simple name recognition. 

Perhaps more than any other player-player relationship, Stafford's fantasy value is critically linked to Johnson. That is not a bad thing, but it's something owners better be aware of each and every step of the way.

All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats. Statistics courtesy of ESPN. Kansas City, New Orleans on bye.