2015 NFL Draft: Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook for Week 6

Following a crazy week of college football, this week's Scouting Notebook is jam-packed with inside information on which players NFL teams are loving, cooling on and discovering as scouts continue their road work.

We'll also take a look at an updated draft order and team needs for the first round of the 2015 NFL draft, discuss another exciting 2016 prospect and see which college stars are already drawing comparisons to Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt.

The Scout's Report

— Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott has turned heads with back-to-back wins over LSU and Texas A&M. With a game against No. 2 Auburn on the slate this weekend, it's worth noting that people close to Prescott are already putting out feelers about his NFL potential for the 2015 class. Prescott, whose mother passed away in November of 2013 to cancer, is said to be looking for a way to provide for his family sooner rather than later. He's currently ranked as a second-round talent on my big board.

— Another player who has been poking around for news on his draft stock is LSU defensive back Jalen Mills. The excellent cornerback/safety prospect is another in a long line of talented defensive backs to come out of LSU, and he carries a late first-round grade on my board currently. 

— An area scout assigned to Iowa told me this week that he and his NFL team see Brandon Scherff as a guard due to his shorter arms. That said, they view Scherff as an elite-level guard prospect thanks to his strength, run-blocking skill set and quickness off the ball. 

— Texas A&M left tackle Cedric Ogbuehi is a top-tier prospect, but one area scout I spoke to this week expressed doubts about his technique. "He's behind [Luke] Joeckel and Jake [Matthews] in terms of being ready for the NFL," the scout said. Ogbuehi is a natural athlete, but just one year at left tackle is showing up.

Ben Hoskins/Getty Images

— The Oakland Raiders have fired head coach Dennis Allen, but owner Mark Davis is telling people close to him that the new head coach must be prepared to build around rookies Derek Carr (QB) and Khalil Mack (OLB). 

— Previous editions of the Scouting Notebook have tipped you off about 2016 prospects Robert Nkemdiche, Laremy Tunsil, Laquan Treadwell, Christian Hackenberg and Joey Bosa. Now it's time to talk about Notre Dame's Jaylon Smith. As one scout told me this week, "He's already the best player on that team."

— There is not, at this time, a clear-cut No. 1 player at middle linebacker. One scout told me this week that Virginia's Henry Coley is "The best inside 'backer no one is talking about right now." 

Five Up, Five Down

Each week, "Five Up, Five Down" will monitor the movements of players on my draft board.

5. ILB Benardrick McKinney, Mississippi State

Versatile linebackers are all the rage in the NFL right now, and Mississippi State 'backer Benardrick McKinney fits the bill.

The 6'5", 249-pound redshirt junior was heavily rumored to be leaning toward entering the 2014 NFL draft, but he returned to Starkville to improve his play and his stock. He's done both. With an NFL-ready frame, unreal length and very good agility, McKinney could play outside linebacker in a 4-3 defense or middle/inside linebacker in a 3-4 or 4-3 set.

4. OG Jarvis Harrison, Texas A&M

While everyone focuses on Texas A&M left tackle Cedric Ogbuehi, his linemate Jarvis Harrison is quickly climbing up draft boards.

The 6'4", 330-pound senior has played left guard and left tackle at A&M and consistently shows up on film as one of the more athletic linemen in the nation. With his agility and experience attacking in space, Harrison catches eyes for zone-blocking systems. But his ability to handle defenders at the point of attack really impressed me this past week.

3. ILB A.J. Johnson, Tennessee

There was good and bad from Tennessee's A.J. Johnson against Georgia, but over the course of the season, he's been trending in an upward position. 

Johnson is athletic and shows the movement skills in space to make scouts drool. He will take some wild angles and take himself out of a play or two, but his total game impact is high. He also ranks well in terms of upside available at the next level, and a good coach could snatch him up as a second-rounder with the talent to start.

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

2. OLB Nate Orchard, Utah

As the season progresses, there's more time to talk sleepers. Utah's Nate Orchard qualifies for that label right now, but he might not for long.

Orchard, at 6'4" and 255 pounds, is the ideal build for the 3-4 defense in the NFL. Let him play weak-side rush 'backer and unleash him on the offense with his pursuit skills, quickness in space and first-step ability off the ball. He does need some work at hand use and technique, but he shows that rare skill to convert speed to power as a pass-rusher.

Keep Orchard's name in your back pocket—he's about to heat up.

1. OLB Tank Jakes, Memphis

If you'll remember that LaVonte David played safety at Nebraska or that Kam Chancellor is built like a linebacker, then you can find a place in your heart for Memphis defender Tank Jakes. Sure, he's only 5'11" and 227 pounds, but he's lightning fast off the edge while fitting the mold of the nickel linebacker role that's becoming popular in the league.

Jakes may not get national love, but he's the type of playmaker people sleep on and then two years from now, he's starting and carving up offenses.

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1. QB Jeff Driskel, Florida

I'm not even sure Jeff Driskel ranks as a quarterback prospect at this stage. The Florida passer is erratic, inaccurate and has troubling mechanics to boot. Yes, he's athletic and looks the part from a physical standpoint, but nothing I've seen from him to date shows me an ability to play quarterback in the NFL.

Driskel will get another chance as the starting quarterback at Florida for the remainder of this season, but the chance of him changing opinions in a short amount of time is tough to believe in. 

2. WR Ty Montgomery, Stanford

Dropped passes plagued Ty Montgomery early in his Stanford career, and they came back to haunt him in Saturday's matchup against Notre Dame. 

Montgomery is very much an athlete as opposed to a wide receiver at this stage, so you might look at the drops as something he can correct along the way. And it's happened before, but when evaluating a wide receiver, drops are the fastest way for a player to drop on my board. 

3. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon

When a player has one bad week, I make note of it and move on. Two bad weeks in a row and you start moving down the rankings. That's where Ifo Ekpre-Olomu is right now.

Against Washington State and Arizona, Ekpre-Olomu was physically beaten by wide receivers. While his size is always going to be a concern in some NFL draft rooms (he's just around 5'10" tall), Ekpre-Olomu always won with quickness, awareness and toughness previous to this year. Now he's struggling against bigger, stronger receivers—and that's something NFL teams will quickly take note of.

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

4. QB Everett Golson, Notre Dame

The Stanford defense has made good prospects look bad in the past, but junior quarterback Everett Golson was a bit exposed under the bright lights.

When asked to stand in the pocket and make plays, he was too indecisive and looked for the comforts of roll-outs and scrambles. From what I've seen of Golson, he needs to be on the edge to make throws. That could be a safety valve due to his lack of height (he's listed at 6'1" but is likely closer to 5'11"). Either way, for Golson to become the next Russell Wilson, he has to improve his throws from the pocket and speed up his decision-making.

5. CB Deshazor Everett, Texas A&M

This past week, I had one wide receiver coach tell me he felt like Deshazor Everett could be a first-round pick. His skill set may show that, but his production has not.

Everett has struggled in man assignments while also struggling with zone passes and decision-making from his spot at cornerback. He's an impressive physical specimen, but I don't see the coverage skills at this time of a first-round or even second-round talent.

Scouting Report: Bryce Petty

Throughout the 2014 college football season, one senior draft prospect will be highlighted each week with a first-look scouting report.

Quarterback, Baylor (6'3", 230 lbs)

Strengths

• Returning All-American, Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year and first-team All-Big 12.
• Very intelligent on and off the field and is regarded as a high-character teammate.
• Has a thick, athletic build with solid leg and core build.
• Estimated 4.60 40-yard dash and is a weight room freak.
• Has a smooth, quick delivery with a motion that comes out a bit over the shoulder.
• High-level athlete who can make plays on the move going left or right.
• Has the look of a starting NFL quarterback after a short development period.

Weaknesses

• One-year starter before 2014 season.
• Back injury cost him game time early this year. 
• Plays in a system that doesn't require NFL-level progressions.
• Was just 7-of-22 passing against Texas Longhorns. 
• Goes through spells of poor accuracy, too quick of a trigger on decision-making.
• Dominates on underneath routes but doesn't throw many deep balls.

Pro Player Comparison: Andrew Luck's athleticism and Geno Smith's NFL readiness.

Scouting Dictionary

"Clutch Production"

I'm one of those hardcore "stats don't matter" guys when it comes to evaluating, which is why I was really surprised when area scouts started talking about quarterbacks and "clutch production." So, what is it?

Clutch production is exactly how it sounds. It's production in the final minutes (some teams say two minutes, others four, others claim any time the quarterback is trailing with the final possession) of a game when the quarterback has a chance to lead a comeback. For those who argue that wins aren't a quarterback stat, this is pretty hard evidence that some NFL teams disagree.

A wise team will look at every area (two-minute mark, four-minute mark, with a lead, needing a score) in the final minutes and chart that quarterback's production there. That said, you also have to be aware of the team around the player and not give credit where it isn't due.

The Big Board

Through five weeks of play, here's how the first round of the 2015 NFL draft would look if the season ended today. Also included is a look at each team's biggest need heading into Week 6.

Pick	Team	Primary Need
1	Jacksonville	Defensive End
2	Oakland	Wide Receiver
3	Tampa Bay	Offensive Line
4	Tennessee	Quarterback
5	New York Jets	Offensive Line
6	Washington	Cornerback
7	St. Louis	Quarterback
8	Minnesota	Offensive Line
9	Chicago	Linebacker
10	Atlanta	Pass Rush
11	New Orleans	Pass Rush
12	Kansas City	Wide Receiver
13	Houston	Quarterback
14	Miami	Wide Receiver
15	Cleveland	Wide Receiver
16	Pittsburgh	Cornerback
17	Cleveland (from Bills)	Defensive End
18	Detroit	Cornerback
19	Green Bay	Inside Linebacker
20	Baltimore	Running Back
21	Carolina	Cornerback
22	New England	Wide Receiver
23	New York Giants	Outside Linebacker
24	San Francisco	Cornerback
25	Indianapolis	Offensive Line
26	Cincinnati	Cornerback
27	Denver	Running Back
28	Arizona	Outside Linebacker
29	Seattle	Tight End
30	San Diego	Offensive Line
31	Dallas	Defensive End
32	Philadelphia	Cornerback

Parting Shots

10. Are Marcus Mariota and Brett Hundley struggling to live up to expectations? Maybe, but that statement needs context. Both Mariota and Hundley are playing on offenses decimated by injuries and/or graduations—Mariota is protected by a true freshman and a walk-on junior right now at tackle. While the UCLA and Oregon signal-callers are major talents, the offensive line and receiver play has been bad for both. 

This is where it's important to evaluate individual traits and not production. If you want to point to concerns for them, look at Mariota's fumbles (two last week) and Hundley's decision-making down the field. But don't get too caught up on wins and losses as it pertains to the draft.

9. The hype surrounding Ole Miss defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche and Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa is reaching mythological levels. As one NFL general manager told me this week, "That's like the college version of [Jadeveon] Clowney and [J.J.] Watt. They're going to go high next year." 

8. USC cornerback Josh Shaw was a top-50 player when he was suspended for lying to the school and team after injuring himself jumping off a balcony. Shaw has yet to be reinstated, and head coach Steve Sarkisian told Michael Lev of the Orange County Register that a decision on Shaw's return is "not even a decision to be made on our end at this point." 

Shaw is talented, but missing most of (or all of) the 2014 season does not bode well for his draft hopes.

7. The Fall Experimental Football League opened this week, and I polled NFL scouts and general managers on if they would be watching when the Omaha Mammoths took on the Boston Brawlers. Of the eight people who returned texts, not one said they would be watching the game. 

The FXFL hopes to be a developmental league for the NFL, but its early start hasn't yet caught the eye of these NFL contacts.

6. The early feeling talking to agents and assistant college coaches is that we'll see another flood of underclassmen entering the 2015 draft. Last season saw a record 98 underclassmen declare for the draft (the fourth year in a row that a new record was set). The fact that 38 of those underclassmen did not get drafted was thought to deter future redshirt sophomores and juniors, but the early feel is that we'll see another record-breaking year of underclassmen opting for the NFL.

5. Georgia running back Todd Gurley has been suspended indefinitely, according to a news release from the school. The suspension comes from "an investigation into an alleged violation of NCAA rules," the school said. It's been reported by ESPN's Joe Schad that "Gurley was given money for autographs, memorabilia or the use of his likeness."

Will the NFL care? Not one bit.

Gurley's suspension isn't for breaking the law or being alleged of a crime. It's a bullcrap NCAA rule that says the school can make millions off jersey, autograph, poster and ticket sales but the player cannot. All this does is allow Gurley to go into the NFL with fewer hits on his frame.

4. Take time to enjoy J.J. Watt. What we're seeing from him is purely amazing football. He's my MVP pick through five weeks and a game.

3. The play of Indianapolis Colts outside linebacker Bjoern Werner the past two weeks is a great example of why you cannot judge a draft pick too soon. Werner had just 2.5 sacks and 18 tackles after being selected No. 24 overall out of Florida State. In his second season (six starts), he's already posted 17 tackles and three sacks. 

The early book on Werner wasn't great, but he's been allowed to develop and the year-two returns are looking very good.

2. Watching the Texas vs. Colts and seeing Ryan Fitzpatrick struggle to move the football, I couldn't help but think that Jameis Winston would look very nice moving the chains for Bill O'Brien's offense. They may have a chance to get him, too, if the Florida State redshirt sophomore declares for the 2015 draft.

1. Hindsight is always perfect, but are any NFL teams regretting their picks from the early part of the 2014 draft? It's way (way) too early to call anyone a bust or a bad pick, but here's how I'd see the top 10 picks going if the draft was held today.

Pick	Team	Original Pick	New Pick
1	HOU	DE J. Clowney	DE J. Clowney
2	STL	OG G. Robinson	QB T. Bridgewater
3	JAX	QB B. Bortles	QB B. Bortles
4	BUF	WR S. Watkins	WR S. Watkins
5	OAK	LB K. Mack	LB K. Mack
6	ATL	OT J. Matthews	OT J. Matthews
7	TB	WR M. Evans	OG G. Robinson
8	CLV	CB J. Gilbert	WR K. Benjamin
9	MIN	LB A. Barr	LB A. Barr
10	DET	TE E. Ebron	CB K. Fuller