Arian Foster's Latest Injury Means Fantasy Owners Should Bench Him in Week 4

Dear Arian Foster fantasy owners: The warning signs were there.

Foster has some of the highest usage rates in the NFL since 2010, and fantasy owners above all else should understand the implications. The wheels just fall off at some point.

Foster was probably a great value in most drafts, but those who knew to avoid him and go for a DeMarco Murray or Le'Veon Bell are laughing all the way to the bank. Again, the wheels just go. Forget age (he's 28, not the dreaded 30). It is all about usage.

The two-win Houston Texans welcome Buffalo to town in Week 4, a matchup Foster may or may not be available for after he was a late scratch against the New York Giants the week prior.

Now, Foster classifies his availability in a way that can only produce a grimace from owners as they head into a week with six teams on bye.

Drew Dougherty of HoustonTexans.com provides the details:

This is the same issue that bothered Foster for most of the preseason. Which came after he missed half of last season. Which came after 351 totes in 2012. There were 278 before that. Another 327 before that.

The giant pothole in the Foster road was health. There was a time when he appeared to be perhaps the lone workhorse back in the NFL thanks to coach Bill O'Brien's seemingly adverse attitude toward the committee approach.

"If one of the things that’s important for this team winning in a game is for him to carry the ball 25 to 30 times, 35 times, then that is what we have to do," O'Brien said, per Dougherty. "If it’s 10 times and maybe he catches more passes in a game, maybe that is what we have to do."

For a brief moment, it was working. Foster posted 20 points against Oakland, but two workmanlike games is seemingly all it took for his body to break down again.

It is not as if this was some surefire matchup for Foster anyway. In fact, while opportunity equals production is a great theory that mostly works, it may have backfired in a big way against the Buffalo Bills—a team that gives up the seventh-fewest points to running backs this season, as the numbers illustrate:

WK	OPP	ATT	YDS	TD	PTS
1	@Chi	18	86	0	16
2	Mia	17	69	0	8
3	SD	35	74	0	9

One breakout performance against Oakland, a team that gives up the seventh-most points to running backs (Foster's numbers play a factor, but the team gave up a whopping 30 to the New York Jets too), does not necessarily mean Foster had morphed back to his 2010 form, bestowing upon him a matchup-proof label.

He most certainly was not matchup-proof before the injury and now absolutely is not with rookie Alfred Blue getting himself 78 yards on 13 carries as the starter last week (for owners brave enough to handcuff, that was a cool eight points).

USA TODAY Sports

Blue's emergence throws a wrench in Foster's value down the line. Perhaps O'Brien simply did not believe others on the roster could match the starter's production. Maybe the team does not rush him back now. There is an outside chance O'Brien now sees the light that is a committee approach in order to preserve Foster's health.

But back to Week 4. It was a bad matchup as is. Now Foster's status is up in the air, a volatile mixture that is not worth sweating over right up until an hour before kickoff. It is the first bye week of the season. Don't drag feet on the waiver wire and trade market on the off chance Foster suits up. Be proactive and get comfortable starters now just in case.

The natural, certainly unfortunate cycle that is the shelf life of an NFL running back has caught up with Foster at this point in time. The outlook the rest of the season is murky, but the immediate future leaves little to the imagination—Foster belongs on benches this week. 

All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info. Statistics courtesy of ESPN.