Oakland Raiders vs. New England Patriots: Betting Odds Analysis and Prediction

The New England Patriots are a perfect 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread while hosting teams from the AFC West, and the Oakland Raiders are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS the last four times visiting the AFC East.

In the largest spread mismatch of this season so far, the 1-1 Patriots host the 0-2 Raiders on Sunday afternoon in Foxborough.

But beware the Pats in the role of big chalk. Since 2007, they have been favored by two touchdowns or more 14 times and covered the spread only three times (3-11 ATS).

Point spread: The Patriots opened as 14.5-point favorites, and the number was climbing in mid-week wagering monitored by Odds Shark; the total was 46.5 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 34.5-16.5 Patriots

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

The Raiders haven't looked too good in losing their first two games with rookie Derek Carr at quarterback, but hey, things can only get better, right? Oakland actually pulled off a backdoor cover in its season opener on the East Coast, scoring a late touchdown to lose to the Jets 19-14 as six-point dogs.

Last week the Raiders lost at home to Houston 30-14, although that game might have been a little closer had wide receiver James Jones not fumbled at the Texans 3-yard line just before halftime. Carr has hit on 64 percent of his throws, but he could use a little help from the running game, which, after averaging 125 yards per game last year, has produced just 126 yards through two games this season.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots bounced back after an opening-weekend loss at Miami to beat the Vikings in Minneapolis last week 30-7. New England outrushed Minnesota 150-54, held the ball for almost 32 minutes, picked off Vikings quarterback Matt Cassel four times and returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown.

That's how you cover a spread as a road favorite. Tom Brady only threw the ball 22 times against Minnesota, but he didn't need to do a whole lot, as the Patriots put on a nice team effort.

New England now gets a chance at an easy victory in its home opener against the hapless Raiders. But avoiding the backdoor cover might not be easy, given New England’s sketchy history with big spreads.

Smart Pick

New England has won the last three meetings with Oakland by an average score of 37-22, and while the Patriots might hit 37 points Sunday, the Raiders might be hard-pressed to come up with 22.

Brady and New England won't need the tuck rule this time around. The computer pick here is with the Patriots, minus the points.

Trends

• Patriots are 3-11 ATS in the past 14 games as chalk of 14 points or more.
• Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games when playing New England.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.