Why Georgia's Todd Gurley Will End NFL Draft's First-Round Running Back Drought

Despite a clear and rapid devaluation of the running back position in the NFL, Georgia’s Todd Gurley should be a clear-cut first-round selection if he enters the 2015 NFL Draft.

There was at least one running back selected in the first round of every draft from 1964 through 2012.

There have been no first-round running backs in either of the two drafts since.

It increasingly looks as though NFL teams are buying into the philosophy that running backs shouldn’t be first-round picks. Annual examples of franchises turning Day 2 and 3 picks into immediate contributors in their backfields have supported the thesis that it is no longer necessary to make major investments at the position.

That shouldn’t stop a team from making Gurley an exception to the new rule.

Gurley, who has emerged as a Heisman Trophy favorite two games into his junior season, has a rare combination of qualities that prime him for potential NFL stardom.

Built for Excellence

Gurley has ideal size for a between-the-tackles runner, listed at 6’1” and 226 pounds by Georgia’s official athletics website, but he’s no plodder.

With a chiseled upper body and terrific leg drive, Gurley forces defenders to be technically sound in their tackling. He consistently powers through arm tackles and keeps his legs churning through contact.

One of the most important traits for a running back is his balance; Gurley’s is superb. In cahoots with his power, Gurley uses that balance to keep plays alive after contact that would stop most running backs in their tracks.

The following examples for Georgia’s games this season versus Clemson and South Carolina exemplify how tough Gurley makes himself to bring down.

Screenshot via Noonkick illustrated by author

Screenshot via Noonkick illustrated by author

Gurley’s ability to run through defenders is impressive on its own, but what really makes Gurley special is how well he can run past and away from opposing players.

Seemingly the spawn of a Mack truck and a gazelle, Gurley has a gracefulness in the open field rarely seen from backs of his size. He accelerates naturally, cuts cleanly and exhibits tremendous vision.

As he showed on his end zone-to-end zone kickoff return in Georgia’s season opener versus Clemson, Gurley has no shortage of big-play ability.

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Running north and south between the tackles should always be Gurley’s bread and butter, but he doesn’t always have to plow through bodies to extend plays.

In the following example from this past Saturday’s outing against South Carolina, Gurley showed how he could use his burst and change-of-direction to create yardage for a key play.

"

I'm starting to come around towards the idea of taking Gurley if I'm picking outside the top 7/8 picks. If he's AP or Marshawn, why not?

— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) September 13, 2014"

Needing 16 yards for a third-down conversion, it looked as though Gurley would be stopped well short as his attempt to run left was thwarted by a wall of defenders.

Reversing the field and outrunning defenders for a big play is a tactic typically reserved for small scat backs, but for Gurley, this play was just one more example of him defying the norms for his position and measurables.

There might not be as many big plays in Gurley’s arsenal at the next level; his physical traits won’t stand out to the same degree against bigger and faster defenders in the NFL. Still it’s evident that Gurley has elite-level tools, even by professional standards, and a skill set that should be highly translatable to any offense.

Gurley can be an offensive asset on any down and distance. In addition to being a vigorous between-the-tackles runner with the speed to do damage outside, Gurley is also a sure-handed pass-catcher out of the backfield and has provided quality in his experience as a pass protector.

Through the first 26 games of his collegiate career while playing in college football’s toughest conference, the SEC, Gurley has already accumulated 3,260 yards from scrimmage and 38 touchdowns.

There are no significant deficiencies in Gurley’s game that should stop him from immediately continuing to achieve success in the NFL.

The most legitimate concern teams might have with Gurley—a concern teams have with running backs in general that has led to the devaluation of the position—is his long-term durability.

Gurley suffered an ankle injury last season that cost him three games and seemingly hampered him to an extent for the rest of the year. He has already had more than 480 total touches in less than three seasons of collegiate play, and his physical style of running leads him to taking many shots to the body over the course of a game.  

That concern, nonetheless, shouldn’t keep Gurley from being one of the premier prospects in the 2015 draft, assuming he declares.

Gurley’s Talent Should Trump the Trend

One reason there were no first-round running back selections in the past two drafts—and no running backs taken in the top 50 picks of the most recent draft—is that many NFL offenses now favor a running back-by-committee approach over having an every-down feature back.

Another reason why there were no first-round running backs in the past two drafts, however, is simply that there were no prospects at the position who clearly ranked among the top 32 players in their respective class.

There is a clear trend away from running backs being high draft picks, and that trend is likely to continue going forward, but Gurley looks as though he could be one of the top five or 10 talents in the 2015 draft class.

If teams decide not to draft Gurley solely because of the position he plays, it’s a decision they surely could regret.

As recently as 2012, a running back was still considered worth a premium draft choice when the Cleveland Browns actually traded up one spot to the No. 3 overall pick to select Trent Richardson.

The failures to date of Richardson, who was traded by the Browns just two games into his second season and has played even more disappointingly for the Indianapolis Colts, might be playing a part in the league’s collective hesitancy to value running backs as headliners of draft classes.

It doesn’t help Gurley’s cause that his game carries some similarities to that of Richardson, who accumulated more than 3,800 yards from scrimmage and scored 44 touchdowns in his own career playing for SEC powerhouse Alabama, yet has not even come close to being as effective as an NFL back.

That said, Gurley has also drawn comparisons to a number of backs who have been highly successful in the NFL.

CBS Sports’ Rob Rang compares Gurley to Marshawn Lynch, who played a pivotal part in the Seattle Seahawks’ run to a Super Bowl championship last season. Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller likens Gurley to Shaun Alexander, the 2005 NFL MVP, while SEC on CBS commentator Gary Danielson compared Gurley to Eddie George, who ran for more than 10,000 yards in his nine-year NFL career, during Saturday’s broadcast of the Georgia-South Carolina game.

Any NFL team that believes Gurley can have similar success to Lynch, Alexander and/or George should not hesitate to draft the Georgia running back if it needs an upgrade at the position.

Where Will Gurley Land?

Should a team use a high first-round pick on Gurley, the selection will likely be stigmatized because of the trend set in the past two drafts. But as Bleacher Report’s Cian Fahey noted last weekend, his potential to be one of the NFL’s best running backs could make him worthy of consideration as early as the top 10 picks.

There could end up being multiple first-round running backs in the 2015 draft. Wisconsin junior Melvin Gordon III is an explosive playmaker with a special combination of acceleration and agility, while South Carolina junior Mike Davis and Alabama junior T.J. Yeldon could also garner consideration in the top 32 picks.

None of those backs, however, are as complete a back or as specially talented as Gurley is. As long as Gurley stays healthy and avoids off-field trouble, his standing as the draft’s top runner should go largely unchallenged.

According to NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, Bucky Brooks and Charles Davis, an NFC personnel executive recently said he has not “seen a back like Gurley in a long time.”

"He has such an impressive blend of speed and power,” the executive reportedly said. “He competed in the 60-meter hurdles at Georgia and I think that has helped him with his leg drive."

Any offense could benefit from the addition of a ballcarrier like Gurley, but teams who could be in the market for feature backs include the Indianapolis Colts, Baltimore Ravens, Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints.

Two other teams that could be ideal fits for Gurley if they end up in the running back market could be the Minnesota Vikings, dependent upon how Adrian Peterson’s legal situation plays out, and the Seattle Seahawks, who could opt to move on from Lynch in the 2015 offseason.

Regardless of who ends up being the most interested in Gurley, don’t expect him to have an agonizing wait in the green room. He’ll become too good to pass up at some point in Round 1, and he might even entice a team to trade up for him.

All GIFs were produced at gfycat.com, using game videos from DraftBreakdown.com and Noonkick.com. All statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com, unless otherwise noted.

Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow @Dan_Hope