2014-15 MLB Free Agency: Predicting Winter's Highest-Paid FA at Each Position
To borrow a line from one of the great (or awful, it's open for debate) songs of the '80s, the appropriately titled "Talk Talk" by...Talk Talk: "All you do to me is talk talk."
In this case, "me" is actually we, as in us, fans of major league baseball, while the you in the lyrics are the players and agents that pump out reason after reason as to why they chose to sign with Team X as a free agent.
More often than not, it has nothing to do with fit, tradition or always wanting to play for a certain manager. More often than not, it's all just talk. We know what the deal is: "It's All About the Benjamins," baby.
Money is the great equalizer in any negotiation, and when one team is offering more than another, it's hard for a player or his agent to say no. We aren't talking about a difference of a few hundred dollars—we're talking millions.
That's reason enough for most players to pack up their belongings, round up their families and head for greener pastures.
Before we dive into which pending free agents will be the highest paid at each position on the field, a few things to keep in mind.
- With one notable exception, we are operating under the assumption that all options for 2015 (player, team, mutual) will be exercised and, thus, keep those players off the market.
- We are more interested in how much a player will get than where that money is coming from. While we'll touch on some potential landing spots for some, what team these players sign with is largely irrelevant for our purposes. This is about market value, nothing else.
- Recent deals for similar players, the amount of talent available at a given position and any speculation as to what a player is thought to be seeking all played a part in comprising their projected deals.
With that out of the way, let's take a look at who'll be picking up the tab the first time they head out to dinner with their teammates in 2015.
Catcher: Russell Martin
1 of 12
2014 Stats
| .295 | .410 | .838 | 28 (9) | 61 | 142 |
Age on Opening Day 2015: 32
2014 Salary: $8.5 million
Predicted Deal: Four years, $55 million
Pittsburgh can't afford to lose Russell Martin behind the plate, as the Bucs don't have an internal replacement and the rest of the free-agent catching crop is comprised of over-the-hill veterans and career backups.
Therein lies the problem.
Martin is the only starting-caliber catcher available, and he's going to be the primary target for any team looking for an upgrade at the position. Among catchers with at least 400 plate appearances on the season, Martin leads the position in on-base percentage and is third in wRC+.
His value goes beyond the box score, however, as Pirates shortstop Clint Barmes recently explained to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times:
"His energy and the way he plays the game definitely rubs off on people. It’s huge for [young] guys to watch him prepare and do what he does. And he’s not a real vocal guy, but when he speaks, everyone listens.”
Wittenmyer makes a strong case as to why Martin would be a perfect fit in Chicago with the Cubs, and the three-time All-Star didn't completely discount the possibility when asked. “There’s definitely potential there,” Martin said, noting that some raised an eyebrow when he decided to sign with the Pirates in 2013.
Martin's overall profile—his leadership, his production at the plate and his abilities behind the dish—has him primed to land the biggest—and likely last—multiyear deal of his career as a free agent.
Notable Free-Agent Catcher
Geovany Soto
First Base: Adam LaRoche
2 of 12
2014 Stats
| .261 | .367 | .826 | 43 (24) | 86 | 128 |
Age on Opening Day 2015: 35
2014 Salary: $12 million
Predicted Deal: Two years, $30 million
Washington needs to make room for Ryan Zimmerman's move off third base, and sliding the former All-Star across the diamond makes the most sense. That means Adam LaRoche will wind up with a $2 million buyout from the $15 mutual option on his current deal for 2015.
LaRoche won't be without a new home for long, however, seeing as how he'll easily become the best first baseman available. While he's older than most teams would like, those in need of a first baseman (Milwaukee, Pittsburgh) could use that to their advantage, picking him up on a short-term deal.
Notable Free-Agent First Basemen
Yozzen Cuesta
Corey Hart
Mark Reynolds
Second Base: Asdrubal Cabrera
3 of 12
2014 Stats
| .243 | .311 | .704 | 46 (14) | 55 | 99 |
Age on Opening Day 2015: 29
2014 Salary: $10 million
Predicted Deal: Three years, $36 million
Asdrubal Cabrera couldn't have picked a better time to switch positions, given the relative lack of quality options at second base on the free-agent market.
Cabrera's lack of range is always going to be an issue—and will forever damn him when it comes to advanced fielding metrics—but the former All-Star shortstop has committed only one error in 337 innings at the position, one that he hadn't played since 2009.
He's not going to hit for average, but Cabrera is one of the few middle infielders available that is both under age 30 and provides some pop in the middle of a team's lineup. That he can play shortstop, albeit poorly, only adds to his value.
Cabrera would be a fit in Toronto, which would allow the team to keep Brett Lawrie at third base, and we can't rule out a return to Washington, where he's performed fairly well.
Notable Free-Agent Second Basemen
Emilio Bonifacio
Rickie Weeks
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Third Base: Pablo Sandoval
4 of 12
2014 Stats
| .282 | .329 | .757 | 44 (16) | 69 | 116 |
Age on Opening Day 2015: 28
2014 Salary: $8.25 million
Predicted Deal: Six years, $115 million
His weight will scare off some teams, but others will look at Pablo Sandoval and see him for what he is: A slick-fielding third baseman in the prime of his career who is incredibly agile and athletic for his size, can hit for average and has some pop in his bat.
Players like that don't hit the open market too often—and Team Panda is looking to cash in.
CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported in April that Sandoval was seeking at least a five-year, $100 million deal, a premise that seemed insane at the time, considering that he was hitting .165. But he's hit .304 with a .797 OPS since and managed to stay healthy, missing only three games due to injury.
It marks the first season since 2010 that he hasn't made a trip to the disabled list.
Hanley Ramirez could certainly usurp Sandoval as the top earner at the hot corner this winter if a team signs him to play third, but there's an argument to be made that Sandoval is the far better investment.
Sandoval is a fit with multiple teams, and you can bet that San Francisco will make another attempt to get him locked up before he has a chance to hit the open market, as the Giants did with Tim Lincecum and Hunter Pence in recent years.
Notable Free-Agent Third Basemen
Alberto Callaspo
Chase Headley
Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez
5 of 12
2014 Stats
| .278 | .362 | .757 | 45 (13) | 69 | 132 |
Age on Opening Day 2015: 31
2014 Salary: $16 million
Predicted Deal: Five years, $125 million
Only two shortstops in baseball history have put together four 20/20 seasons—and only one has done it in four consecutive years (2007-10)—Hanley Ramirez.
We know what kind of an offensive juggernaut Ramirez can be, that he has the capability of putting a team on his shoulders and carrying them—he did hit .345 with 20 home runs and a 1.040 OPS in 86 games last season, after all.
But we also know that since leaving Florida, he hasn't been able to stay on the field, playing in only 205 of a possible 316 games for Los Angeles since the start of 2013. That works out to Ramirez participating in roughly 65 percent of his team's games—and makes signing him to a long-term deal a risky investment.
The risk increases substantially when you consider that he's believed to be seeking a multiyear deal for at least $130 million, per CBS Sports' Jon Heyman. Whether he sticks at shortstop or not is less of an issue than his contract demands, which will certainly limit his market.
But that may all be irrelevant, considering the overwhelming consensus is that he's going to stay with the Dodgers, with Heyman noting that Los Angeles loves his attitude, his clubhouse influence and what he brings to the table.
Ramirez is going to get paid well, far more than any of the other available shortstops on the market, who combined won't come close to equaling his new deal.
Notable Free-Agent Shortstops
Stephen Drew
J.J. Hardy
Jed Lowrie
Left Field: Melky Cabrera
6 of 12
2014 Stats
| .301 | .351 | .808 | 54 (16) | 73 | 116 |
Age on Opening Day 2015: 30
2014 Salary: $8 million
Predicted Deal: Four years, $52 million
Melky Cabrera hasn't hidden his desire to stay in Toronto, and it stands to reason that the Blue Jays would love to keep him around, considering the production he's offered on a two-year, $16 million deal.
In a perfect world, Cabrera would accept a qualifying offer from the club (expected to be around $15 million). But there's no guarantee that the Blue Jays will extend one his way, especially when you consider that such a salary would find him making more than Jose Bautista ($14 million) and Edwin Encarnacion ($10 million).
The Blue Jays simply may not want to risk alienating their two biggest stars like that.
Given his profile as a solid, all-around player who can hit for average, has some power and is, at worst, an average defender in left field—and with concerns about his PED use in the past—Cabrera figures to be one of the most sought-after outfielders this winter, unless teams are scared off by his season-ending finger injury.
Notable Free-Agent Left Fielders
Mike Morse
Chris Young
Delmon Young
Center Field: Colby Rasmus
7 of 12
2014 Stats
| .227 | .289 | .739 | 40 (18) | 40 | 102 |
Age on Opening Day 2015: 28
2014 Salary: $7 million
Predicted Deal: Three years, $33 million
Whether he's being honest or not, Colby Rasmus is saying all the right things about losing his starting spot in center field with Toronto.
“I’ll be playing whenever they think I should play and I’m just going to be sitting around watching these rookies play,” Rasmus told reporters, including the National Post's John Lott. “I’m not down about it. No hard feelings. I’m just going to come in and pull for these boys and hope they do good."
While he's been a career underachiever, never living up to the hype that surrounded him when he was a top prospect with St. Louis, Rasmus has proven that he can hit for power and is only a year removed from hitting .276 with 22 home runs and a .840 OPS.
His power, coupled with the fact that he's still relatively young, makes him an attractive buy-low candidate for teams either looking for an upgrade in center field or those that believe Rasmus still has considerable upside.
A very weak crop of free-agent center fielders has him looking like the best option available. As such, a player who hit only .227 is going to get a far bigger deal than he would under normal circumstances.
Notable Free-Agent Center Fielders
Franklin Gutierrez
Nyjer Morgan
Grady Sizemore
Right Field: Yasmani Tomas
8 of 122013-14 Stats (Cuba)*
| .286 | .343 | .787 | 24 (6) | 36 | N/A |
Age on Opening Day 2015: 24
2014 Salary: N/A
Predicted Deal: Seven years, $95 million
Baseball, meet the next big thing by way of Cuba: Yasmani Tomas.
Who, you ask?
"A right-handed-hitting corner outfielder, Tomas can hit towering home runs thanks to the strength from his thickly-built 6-foot-1, 230-pound frame. Tomas has 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale, and with Jose Abreu already gone, the only player still in Cuba with more raw power than him was Alfredo Despaigne. He has some experience in center field and is a decent runner for his size, but his speed is still below-average and he’s going to be a corner outfielder in pro ball.
"
Tomas, 23, originally opened eyes during the 2013 World Baseball Classic, hitting .412 with two home runs, five RBI and a 1.224 OPS over six games for Team Cuba.
He defected from the island nation in June and has all of his legal affairs nearly in order, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe, who says the outfielder will hold a showcase for teams later this month.
If he looks as good as many expect he will at the showcase, one team's international scout told Cafardo that Tomas could command as much as $100 million. That money might seem insane for a player who has never played in a major league game, but two things come into play here.
Fellow Cuban import Rusney Castillo recently signed a seven-year, $72.5 million deal with Boston, a record deal for a Cuban-born player. Team Tomas is going to point to that deal—then point to his age and power—and ask for more.
But perhaps the biggest thing working in Tomas' favor is fear—fear shared by every general manager in the game that they're going to miss out on the next Jose Abreu, Yoenis Cespedes or Yasiel Puig.
Keep in mind that we've seen extended droughts where Cuba hasn't offered much in the way of major league talent—Tomas could be the last "next big thing" for a number of years.
Is he a lock to be the next Abreu, Cespedes or Puig? Of course not. But he could be, and that, coupled with his age and skill set, is going to make him the highest-paid outfielder on the free-agent market.
Notable Free-Agent Right Fielders
Norichika Aoki
Michael Cuddyer
Torii Hunter
*Cuban stats courtesy of ESPN's Cuban-Play.com.
Designated Hitter: Victor Martinez
9 of 12
2014 Stats
| .331 | .400 | .965 | 60 (31) | 98 | 163 |
Age on Opening Day 2015: 36
2014 Salary: $12 million
Predicted Deal: Three years, $56 million
Players who are closer to their 40th birthday than they are to their 30th typically don't land lucrative, multiyear deals on the open market, but Victor Martinez is the exception to that rule.
The only qualified player in baseball with an on-base percentage of at least .400, second in the game when it comes to batting average, slugging percentage (.568) and OPS, third in wRC+ and among the leaders in home runs and RBI, the right-handed slugger seems to be getting better with age.
Unlike Billy Butler and Nelson Cruz, the other big-time free-agent designated hitters, Martinez can handle nearly anything that's thrown his way, proving to be equally effective against arms from either side of the rubber.
Detroit can't really afford to lose him, but multiple teams, including the Chicago White Sox (per 670 The Score's Bruce Levine), plan to make a run at him this winter, which is only going to raise the final numbers on his new deal.
Notable Free-Agent Designated Hitters
Billy Butler
Nelson Cruz
Left-Handed Starter: Jon Lester
10 of 12
2014 Stats
| 15-10 | 2.45 | 1.10 | 205.2 | 2.0 | 9.0 |
Age on Opening Day 2015: 31
2014 Salary: $13 million
Predicted Deal: Six years, $145 million
As battle-tested as any pitcher available, given that he spent the bulk of his career in the AL East—and thrived—Jon Lester sits miles above the rest of the field when it comes to left-handed starters.
He hasn't missed a beat since being traded to Oakland, pitching to a 2.30 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in nine starts and will find no shortage of suitors once the free-agent bonanza begins.
Boston, Chicago (NL) and New York (AL) have all been linked to the southpaw already, and that list is sure to grow at a rapid pace once teams begin to figure out exactly how much money they have available to spend and what their offseason priorities are.
He already has history in Boston, has a long-standing connection with Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer and team president Theo Epstein and, while he's been an antagonist in the Bronx for years, the Yankees' cash is as green and as good as any other team's.
Notable Free-Agent Left-Handed Starter
Francisco Liriano
Right-Handed Starter: Max Scherzer
11 of 12
2014 Stats
| 16-5 | 3.19 | 1.17 | 200.1 | 2.6 | 10.4 |
Age on Opening Day 2015: 30
2014 Salary: $15.525 million
Predicted Deal: Six years, $155 million
Max Scherzer had a chance to stay in Detroit for the long term, but turned down a substantial extension offer before the season began, one that would have made him one of the six highest-paid pitchers in baseball, according to ESPN's Jayson Stark.
Since then, the Tigers have acquired David Price from Tampa Bay, a move that all but guarantees Scherzer will be toeing the rubber for another club in 2015.
He hasn't been quite as dominant as he was during his 21-win, AL Cy Young Award-winning season in 2013, but Scherzer remains one of the 10 best starters in baseball. Represented by Scott Boras, you can be sure that the Cy Young Award will be used as a reason why he, and not Jon Lester, should be the winter's highest-paid pitcher.
While he's not been linked to any one team specifically, Scherzer makes sense for nearly every club in baseball, though only a handful will actually be able to compete for his services.
Notable Free-Agent Right-Handed Starters
Hiroki Kuroda
Ervin Santana
James Shields
Closer: David Robertson
12 of 12
2014 Stats
| 2-5 | 2.93 | 1.03 | 36-for-40 | 3.2 | 13.3 |
Age on Opening Day 2015: 29
2014 Salary: $5.215 million
Predicted Deal: Three years, $27 million
David Robertson has anchored what has been one of baseball's best bullpens—a surprising development when you consider that it's the first time in nearly 20 years that Mariano Rivera wasn't part of it—converting 90 percent of his save opportunities while posting the second-highest strikeout rate of his career.
The safest bet among a field of closers with question marks attached to them—Can K-Rod thrive outside of Milwaukee? Does Koji Uehara have anything left? Is Casey Janssen really closer material any longer?—Robertston will land the most lucrative deal, whether it be back in New York or elsewhere.
Notable Free-Agent Closers
Janssen
Francisco Rodriguez
Uehara
Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR
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.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
