Be Cautious of Rookie Wide Receivers

Here is a small sample from the soon to be released National Football Post draft guide. We discuss five storylines fantasy owners are advised to keep an eye on heading into draft day.

Rookie wide receivers will leave you high and dry (except for Percy Harvin)

I understand it’s very tempting to look at a player like Michael Crabtree in the sixth round, remember how he torched the Texas Longhorns last season, and say to yourself, “He’s going to blow up this year. I’m drafting him!” Do yourself a favor and look for more experience. The rookie wideouts are way too risky.

The main reason wide receivers have such a tough time transitioning from the college game to the NFL is because of press coverage. In college, wideouts are usually given what’s called “free release,” meaning no defender is in their face trying to jam them at the line of scrimmage. Think how easy it is to get up to top speed when you have a 6-8-yard cushion between you and the defender.

Fast forward one year to the NFL when these same wide receivers are coming up to the line of scrimmage and are getting jammed by cornerbacks who are five times faster and stronger than the competition at the college level. The rookie wideouts are forced to learn a whole new set of moves in an attempt to get off the line and down the field fast enough for their quarterback to get them the football.

And don’t forget about the playbook. The amount of plays, formations, and audibles these kids need to learn in a short period of time is overwhelming. It’s why experience is so important at the wide receiver position.

In 2008, 35 wide receivers were selected in the NFL draft.

Three of those receivers finished the 2008 season ranked in the top 50 in fantasy scoring (Eddie Royal, 22nd; DeSean Jackson, 32nd; Donnie Avery, 41st). Some of the receivers who did not make the top-50 cut: Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, Jordy Nelson, James Hardy, Limas Sweed, Earl Bennett, Early Doucet, Josh Morgan, and Mario Manningham.

In 2007, 35 wide receivers were selected in the NFL draft.

Two of those receivers finished the 2007 season ranked in the top 50 in fantasy scoring (Dwayne Bowe, 23rd, and Calvin Johnson, 35th). Some of the receivers who did not make the top-50 cut: Ted Ginn Jr., Anthony Gonzalez, Sidney Rice, and Steve Breaston.

In 2006, 30 receivers were selected in the NFL draft.

Two of those receivers finished the 2006 season ranked in the top 50 in fantasy scoring (Marques Colston, 14th, and Santonio Holmes, 41st). Some of the receivers who did not  make the top-50 cut: Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings (51st), Chad Jackson, and Brad Smith.

Think about it. From 2006-2008, 100 wide receivers were drafted. Of that group, only seven cracked the top 50 in fantasy scoring as rookies. Do those sound like reliable numbers to you?

Now, there are exceptions to the rule, but there’s always a reason why. Take Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson, for example. By all accounts, he had a very successful rookie campaign in 2008. One of the main reasons for his success is that head coach Andy Reid put him in motion at the line of scrimmage in an attempt to get him away from press coverage. That’s one of the reasons we like Percy Harvin this season. The Vikings are going to use him in a variety of ways in an attempt to take advantage of his burst and open-field speed. He’s one rookie we’re comfortable drafting.

Outside of Harvin, the value just won’t be right to go after anyone else. There’s going to be at least one guy in your league who thinks Crabtree or Heyward-Bey is going to have a big season. Let him make that mistake while you build your team around consistency and reliability.