Dynasty Rookie Draft: Quarterback Breakdown
The football season is about to be in full swing, but there is one thing that never ends and that is fantasy football.
I am currently in a dynasty league and it is always hard to find rankings on the incoming rookies. I'll rank the recently drafted players by position.
The 2009 draft was deep in wide receivers with a few impact running backs sprinkled throughout the draft class.
I'll break down immediate impact, long term impact, and overall projection.
First, I will break down the quarterbacks and in coming articles I will breakdown the RB's, WR's, and TE's.
1. Matt Stafford (Detroit Lions):
Short Term: He most likely won't start from day one in Detroit, but he has one of the best wide receivers in the league to throw too when he makes it into the lineup. If you're looking for a QB to make an instant impact on your team look elsewhere.
But once he makes it into the lineup it wouldn't be out of the question to see him put up decent fantasy numbers with fairly solid offensive weapons to throw to.
Long Term: If he becomes the QB that he is projected to be he could become a top 10 fantasy quarterback. Stafford has a cannon arm so he could end up tossing one long touchdown a game. Kevin Smith will provide a solid rushing attack and Calvin Johnson will catch touchdowns no matter who is guarding him.
The most important thing for Stafford could be the development of the defense. If the defense improves and forces turnovers Stafford could be looking at a lot of short fields and fade routes to Johnson. The Lions look like they are a few years away but the NFC North is weak so Stafford could have a solid career in both real life and the fantasy world.
Projection: I wouldn't expect too much from Stafford in his rookie campaign, but there is potential to be a mid-level fantasy quarterback. In future years, he could work his way up to the top 10. If the Lions are able to keep Johnson around and Pettigrew develops, he could have reliable targets for years to come.
2. Mark Sanchez (New York Jets):
Short Term: Most likely to start from Day One. Rex Ryan will try and use Sanchez like Flacco. Thomas Jones, Shonn Greene, and Leon Washington will run the ball and they will run it a lot. I think that Sanchez will start out throwing safe routes and be a game manager for the first part of the season.
More importantly, the Jets will be trying to win the division and the way Ryan knows how to do that is via tough-nosed defense and ball control. Plus Sanchez is in one of the worse places for a rookie quarterback. The Jets fans are ruthless and if Sanchez starts to struggle the boo birds could come out.
Long Term: Sanchez's long term value is mostly in the hands of the Jets. If they can get a few viable options for Sanchez to throw to he can become great. Kiper couldn't get enough of Sanchez. Not that I think Kiper knows anything but Jaws also said Sanchez has all the tools to become a great quarterback.
At the current moment there are very few options for him to throw to. Stuckey could turn out to be a good option, but they lack a big name/ big play receiver. Sanchez could be a top 10 fantasy QB but at the same time he could be a bust. Personally, I feel that the possibility that Sanchez is successful is a little higher than Stafford, and Stafford's long-term value, in my opinion, is just a touch higher.
Projection: First year I would expect him to be some where between Flacco and Ryan from last year stat wise that is. Long term who knows where he could be there aren't many great offensive weapons. Dustin Keller and Stuckey are the best options in the long term and Cotchery hasn't impressed me yet. Sanchez needs some help to become great, but I feel the Jets are really going to take some steps to make themselves an offensive powerhouse. They have their QB of the future and the next draft and free agency will be used to improve the offensive side of the ball.
3. Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Bucs):
Short Term: Freeman is a huge crapshoot, he might play; he might not. He might be ready for the NFL; he might not be. I wouldn't recommend him to any team that is weak at QB. If you have a top flight QB and respectable backup, you could take a flier on him, but I wouldn't expect too much from Freeman in the short term.
Long Term: His long-term success is basically dependent on the ability of Tampa Bay to rebuild.
Tampa Bay will most likely be bad this year and the following year. They have limited talent on offense and their rebuilding a defense since the departure of Monte Kiffin.
More importantly, they have some capable quarterbacks on the roster already, so who knows if one of them pan out and you end up with a Aaron Rodgers situation and he sits for three years.
Of the three first-round QB's there is little doubt that he is the biggest question mark. I also feel he might have the lowest upside of any of the three as well. His running ability could be a big asset and help him subsidize his passing stats.
Projection: Hit or miss here. Worth the risk if you're not worried about your depth at QB. I wouldn't expect him to be more than a middle of the road quarterback. He will most likely be a good bye-week quarterback. I am not expecting much from him.
4. Nate Davis (San Francisco 49ers):
Short Term: He has a learning disability and it's being reported that he is struggling to pick up the play book. He would have been best served staying at Ball State for another year. I highly doubt he plays this year, but the 49ers are hurting at the quarterback position. So, he may get a look to see if he can play.
Long Term: The most important things for Davis are the next two drafts.
If the 49ers draft Bradford or Mccoy, he is not going to see the light of day off of the bench. If they commit to him, he could be solid.
They have some solid receivers and Frank Gore so the offense is there it's just up to the 49ers brass to name a quarterback.
Projection: Most likely not going to play this year. If you got room to stash it might be worth the shot because the 49ers could be good with Willis leading the D and Gore and Crabtree leading the offense. I don't see him as more than a mid-level quarterback but there is no way to know how the 49ers will act in the next few drafts. Worse case senerio you can just drop him if the 49ers go in a different direction.
5. Pat White (Miami Dolphins):
Short Term: Can you say wildcat?
Who knows how White will be used but if he gets enough touches he could be a viable Flex option in deep leagues. Most likely he will be used as a flex player that will be a WR, RB and QB. Could be a dynamic player and might be worth a look in leagues with a deep stash.
Long Term: Chad Henne is the future of the Dolphins. White could be used as a change of pace QB to run some special plays but I wouldn't really expect too much from white in the long term fantasy wise. In my opinion he will make a bigger impact in real football than in fantasy football.
Projection: Might be worth the gamble if your team is deep. If you have a stupid owner in the league you could draft him and try to trade him after he has a break out game. As stated above he will make a much larger impact in the real football than he will in fantasy football.
Tom Brandstater (Denver Broncos)Tom Brady? Matt Cassel? Could he be the next, the weapons are there but has to beat out Orton, Simms, and any other high draft pick.
Rhett Bomar (New York Giants): Stuck behind Eli Manning. He most likely needs to find another team to play QB for. He had the skills at Oklahoma, so he could make it.
Mike Teel (Seattle Seahawks):Hasselbeck is old, but Teel will need to improve and hope the Seahawks stay away from picking a quarterback in the first round.
Running Backs will be up soon.
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