Super Bowl Betting, Last-Minute Point Spread, Trends, Picks

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistFebruary 2, 2014

A security guard stands by a  sign for NFL football's Super Bowl XLVIII stands in front of MetLife Stadium Sat. Feb. 1, 2014, in East Ruthoford, N.J.  The stadium will be the site of Sunday's championship game between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

If the Super Bowl computer prediction at Odds Shark turns out to be accurate Sunday, it will be the best-case scenario for several sportsbooks.

The NFL picks computer projected a 35-34 final for Denver, which would be great news for oddsmakers. The Broncos would fail to cover the spread with that margin of victory, which would be a victory for sportsbooks, who have seen 60 percent of the betting volume on Denver.

It would also be a victory on the moneyline, where most books had more action on Seattle.

And while a high-scoring game is not the preference of many Vegas books, one online shop would be happy with an OVER play.


Odds Shark Computer Prediction

35-34, Denver


Latest Super Bowl Point Spread and Total

After opening with Seattle at -1, the line ballooned quickly to -2. A ton of Denver money this weekend has pushed the number to -2.5 (with one book monitored by at -3, the best line for Seattle bettors). Several shops were predicting a surge of late Seattle money, which could push the closing spread back to -2 or lower.

The total opened at 47 and was bet a bit lower with all the early talk about the weather, but when it became obvious that weather would not be a major factor, OVER money pushed the over-under as high as 48.5 at some sportsbooks. It had settled back to 47.5 at most places Sunday morning. (Super Bowl line moves and matchup report details.)


Game Day Quotes

"Many in the industry are still predicting a late burst of Seattle money, because there is a lot of sharp sentiment out there that Seattle's defense will control this game," said Jack Randall of

"Not to be greedy, but a nice little 28-27 result would be optimal. Amazingly, we need the OVER," per Kevin Bradley of Bovada sportsbook.


Super Bowl XLVIII Trends

  • NFC is 5-1 ATS past six Super Bowls.
  • Underdogs are 5-1 ATS over the past six Super Bowls and they have won four of six SU.
  • Seahawks are 6-3 ATS past nine playoff games.
  • Seahawks are 17-3-1 ATS as underdogs since 2011.
  • Broncos are 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS past 11 games as favorites.
  • Broncos are 12-3 SU past 15 games versus Seattle.
  • Broncos are 11-2 ATS past 13 seasons after a bye week.
  • Seahawks are 3-10-1 ATS past 14 seasons after a bye week.
  • Seahawks are 3-12 SU vs Broncos since 1995.


Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Quotes were gathered firsthand. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.