(Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
Projecting quarterback totals is an art in and of itself. So many factors must come together and work perfectly for the passing game to succeed that it's difficult to know exactly how things will shake out this far out from the start of the season.
But with that said, here are my top five quarterbacks for the 2009 fantasy football season.
1. Peyton Manning (IND) 4200 PYD / 31 PTD / 12 INT
Manning finished last season as the seventh ranked fantasy football quarterback. Going in to the season, Manning was returning from knee surgery, which limited his mobility.
Not that Manning was overly mobile in the past, but a staple of the Colts' offense was the stretch play which requires that Manning be mobile enough to move laterally to hand the ball off the the running back. Without the ability to execute this play as they had in previous seasons, the Colts offense shifted to a pass-heavy system.
The offensive line suffered a myriad of injuries and as a result were unable to play as a cohesive unit. Top it all off with Joseph Addai's injuries, and Payton ended up having a down year. Well, down for Payton at least.
This year the Colts bring in a new head coach and offensive coordinator, but the offensive system should resemble past seasons. Manning is truly the Colts' offensive coordinator.
The offensive line is not as good as it has been in the past, but is still a respectable group of hogs. Addai should be fully healed, and with the addition of Donald Brown (1.27, UConn), Addai should have a fire lit under his butt and realize that his job is in jeopardy.
With the running game in check, Manning will have control of the air and should reestablish his productive relationship with Reggie Wayne, and continue building continuity with new number two wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez.
Look for Manning to increase his yardage totals on a healed knee with a solid running game, and increase his touchdown totals.
2. Drew Brees (NO) 4500 PYD / 30 PTD / 16 INT
In 2008, Brees had the opportunity to post such gaudy numbers due to injuries to Reggie Bush, and the defense's inability to stop the Little Sisters of the Blind.
While the defense has not gotten particularity better, in the last few games of the 2008 season the Saints discovered what they had been missing all year: a running game, courtesy of Pierre Thomas. Transitioning to 2009, the Saints should continue to utilize the running game.
It should also be noted that the top two receivers on the Saints are coming off of surgery.
Marques Colston is recovering, on schedule from what we hear, from microfracture knee surgery. Lance Moore is recovering from shoulder surgery for an injury he suffered lifting weights in April.
A combination of all of these factors should be a decrease, however slight, in Brees' numbers, but an increase in the win total for the Saints.
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