Outcome Odds for Each Top MLB Player Filing for Salary Arbitration

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Outcome Odds for Each Top MLB Player Filing for Salary Arbitration
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Every Major League Baseball team strives to avoid the free-agent market by cultivating and developing cheap, homegrown prospects into contributing players. Yet, when those players advance through their first few years in the show, salary arbitration becomes a story.

This year, 151 players, per USA Today, are eligible for salary arbitration. The criteria for becoming eligible for salary arbitration is defined here, via Fangraphs. With the date for filing arriving today, let the games begin.

For the agents, players and teams involved, three separate and distinct possibilities will arise over the next few weeks: One-year agreement, long-term extension or an arbitration hearing to choose the salary submission for one side.

Last year, for the first time since the right to arbitration arose in 1974, no player took a case to a hearing, per Forbes.

This winter, many stars are on the docket, increasing the likelihood that hearings will occur. Yet, teams have become adverse to arguing over a few hundred thousand dollars with players they hope to eventually bring back on long-term deals.

The following is an estimate of the outcome odds for each of the top players filing for salary arbitration in 2014.

*All projected arbitration salaries for 2014 are via MLB Trade Rumors. Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs, unless otherwise noted. 

 

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