Projecting How Dominoes Will Fall for Top 10 Remaining MLB Free Agents
Roughly a month from the start of spring training, there are still a handful of impact players on the free-agent market. The starting pitching market has been slow to take shape as teams wait on Masahiro Tanaka, while three hitters have seen their markets develop slowly after turning down qualifying offers.
The top remaining free agents, according to Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors' Top 50 rankings at the beginning of the offseason, are as follows, with rankings included.
5. SP Masahiro Tanaka
6. SP Ervin Santana
7. SP Matt Garza
9. SP A.J. Burnett
11. SP Ubaldo Jimenez
14. SS Stephen Drew
17. RF Nelson Cruz
23. SP Bronson Arroyo
25. RP Grant Balfour
28. DH Kendrys Morales
So here is my take on the order in which these 10 players will find new landing spots in the month ahead and where they will wind up playing in 2014.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers Sign SP Masahiro Tanaka
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The entire pitching market has come to a standstill as the numerous suitors of Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka wait to see where the 25-year-old winds up before turning their attention to secondary options.
While the Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees are both expected to make a strong push for Tanaka by Dierkes, in the end, it appears that the Los Angeles Dodgers are willing to do whatever it takes to land him, at least according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today:
If the Dodgers are able to sign him, he'd join Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu and either Dan Haren or Josh Beckett to form arguably the best rotation in baseball.
2. New York Yankees Sign SP Ubaldo Jimenez
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If the New York Yankees do in fact miss out on Tanaka, expect them to move quickly to add one of the market's top remaining arms, as they look to fill out their rotation behind CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda.
The Yankees have already forfeited their first- and second-round picks with the signings of Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann, so they won't be concerned with the qualifying offer that Jimenez received. Beyond that, one general manager told Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe that Jimenez's personality would be a good fit in New York:
"He has the type of personality that would fit New York. He doesn't let things get to him. He’s good at shrugging off things and turning the page.
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The right-hander was 6-5 with a 1.82 ERA over his final 13 starts, striking out 100 in 84 innings of work, and he may have the most upside of the Big Three starters.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks Sign SP Matt Garza
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While Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana have draft-pick compensation tied to them for declining qualifying offers, Matt Garza does not since he was traded to the Texas Rangers during the season.
That makes him an attractive option for an Arizona Diamondbacks team in need of a front-line starting pitcher to lead its staff. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports named the D'Backs as one of the teams in on the 30-year-old back in December:
"Lots of activity on garza at moment. #dbacks #twins #angels #others. no word of anything imminent tho.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 11, 2013"
They have quality arms in Patrick Corbin, Wade Miley and Trevor Cahill, and top prospect Archie Bradley may very well be their best starter by season's end, but signing someone like Garza would still go a long way in improving their postseason chances.
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4. Toronto Blue Jays Sign SP Ervin Santana
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The Toronto Blue Jays have been relatively quiet this offseason, signing a new starting catcher in Dioner Navarro. They've done little else to alter a roster that turned in an incredibly disappointing 2013 season, and they are very much in the market for another solid starting pitcher.
While Ervin Santana will cost whoever signs him a draft pick, the Blue Jays have the advantage of both of their first-round picks being protected, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. As a result, he'd cost them just a second-round pick and bonus pool money:
"The Jays are a leading candidate to sign either Santana or Jimenez; they have two protected first-round picks, Nos. 9 and 11, and would sacrifice only a second-rounder and the accompanying pool money for one of those free-agent right-handers.
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Adding Santana to the mix alongside R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle would give the team a strong front of the rotation. Behind them, some combination of Brandon Morrow, J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek and others should be able to fill out the rest of the staff.
5. Cleveland Indians Sign SP Bronson Arroyo
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Once the Big Three find new homes, workhorse right-hander Bronson Arroyo will be the top remaining arm on the market. He's thrown at least 199 innings in each of the past nine seasons, posting 119 wins and a 4.10 ERA over that span.
The 36-year-old Arroyo should come cheaper than those three. Joel Sherman of the New York Post predicted he would sign a three-year, $36 million deal prior to the winter meetings, but he could wind up settling for a two-year deal in the right situation:
"Sense here is Arroyo could get done at Meetings. Expectation: 3 yr, $36M range. #Twins #Reds few others in for tough-minded innings eater
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 11, 2013"
The Cleveland Indians lost a pair of key arms from last year's surprisingly effective starting rotation, as Scott Kazmir signed with the Oakland Athletics and Ubaldo Jimenez is all but certain to sign elsewhere this offseason.
6. Seattle Mariners Sign RF Nelson Cruz
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The Seattle Mariners have had a busy offseason, signing Robinson Cano to a massive 10-year, $240 million deal and also adding Corey Hart and Logan Morrison to the lineup. As things stand now, though, they are left-handed-heavy and could use another power bat in the middle of the lineup.
According to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN, the team remains in the hunt to sign slugger Nelson Cruz, even with the additions it has already made to its lineup:
"Even after signing Robinson Cano and bringing Hart and Morrison into the fold, Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik doesn't appear ready to close the door on upgrades to an offense that ranked 12th in the American League with 624 runs scored. The Mariners have been ardent Cruz pursuers from the start of the winter, and one baseball source said they'll continue to be in the mix for him.
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Signing Cruz would mean trading or benching someone from the trio of Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley and Michael Saunders. There is no question he would be a welcome addition to the Mariners lineup, though, and he would provide some solid protection for Cano out of the cleanup spot.
7. SP A.J. Burnett Retires
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A.J. Burnett has enjoyed a career resurgence since joining the Pittsburgh Pirates prior to the 2012 season, going 26-21 with a 3.41 ERA and 8.9 K/9 and giving the team a huge veteran presence atop its rotation.
The 37-year-old was mulling retirement during the season, indicating to Colin Dunlap of Pittsburgh's 93.7 The Fan that he would likely either retire or re-up with the Pirates for 2014. With no decision made to this point, Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage believes he's leaning toward retirement, according to CBS Pittsburgh:
"I'm on that percentage point where he's not going to come back. I've got to prepare the pitching with no A.J, so that's the route I’m going right now. If he does come back, alright. But right now, I'm leaning that way, where he's going to retire.
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Chances are he'll wait around until the Big Three sign just to see what type of offers are out there for him, but in the end, my guess is he'll call it a career.
8. Baltimore Orioles Sign 1B/DH Kendrys Morales
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The Baltimore Orioles remain in the market for a starting pitcher, but if they miss out on the top remaining options on the market, they could quickly turn their attention to adding another piece to the offensive puzzle.
Left field and designated hitter are both areas that could be upgraded, with David Lough and Nolan Reimold currently penciled in to those spots. Kendrys Morales is one possible fit, and the market has been very slow to develop for him, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe:
"The silence on Morales is deafening, which is strange for a hitter of his magnitude. We understand the compensation issue in signing him, but teams such as the Brewers, Orioles, Mariners, and Astros could still use his bat.
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Signing Morales would mean giving up the No. 17 pick for the Orioles, but if they miss out on the above-mentioned pitchers as predicted, they could be compelled to sign Morales as they look to keep pace in the AL East.
9. New York Yankees Sign RP Grant Balfour
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The New York Yankees have already made a number of solid additions to their lineup this offseason and are all but certain to sign at least one starting pitcher before the start of spring training. On top of that, they could also look to add a late-inning reliever before the offseason is over.
Grant Balfour agreed to terms on a two-year, $15 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles, but things fell apart when concerns over his wrist and knee popped up following his physical, per ESPN's Buster Olney. The Yankees have shown interest in him since, according to Kevin Kernan of the New York Post:
"According to industry sources, the Yankees have shown some interest in closer Grant Balfour, whose two-year deal with the Orioles disintegrated.
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David Robertson is expected to replace the retired Mariano Rivera in the ninth inning, but the rest of the Yankees bullpen is a question. Shawn Kelley and Matt Thornton profile as the team's top two setup men at this point, and adding Balfour to the mix would give the Yankees some depth even if he serves in a setup role.
10. Boston Red Sox Re-Sign SS Stephen Drew
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Of the 13 free agents to receive qualifying offers this offseason, Stephen Drew was perhaps the biggest surprise, and it's looking more and more like he would have been wise to accept the Boston Red Sox's offer.
He was one of two legitimate everyday shortstop options on the market this offseason, but interest in him has been minimal to this point. The New York Mets looked like the most likely landing spot when the offseason kicked off. They now appear ready to roll with Ruben Tejada at the position, though, according to GM Sandy Alderson via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com:
"The same three alternatives exist: sign a free agent, make a trade or go with what we have, subject to probably bringing in a backup to Tejada. I'd say right now, it's probably more likely that we will go with Option C, which is Ruben at shortstop with the addition of a backup.
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With that, a return to the Boston Red Sox looks like the most likely move for Drew at this point, as bringing him back would mean sliding Xander Bogaerts to third base and moving Will Middlebrooks to the bench. The Red Sox are biding their time with the 30-year-old at this point, and if nothing else materializes, expect him to be back.
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.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
