2014 MLB Free Agency: Fact or Fiction with the Latest Rumors, Week 3

The 2014 MLB free-agency market is finally taking shape, and the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers have pulled off a blockbuster deal, but leave it to Alex Rodriguez to steal the show.

The New York Yankees slugger walked out on his own grievance hearing in New York once he learned that MLB commissioner Bud Selig wouldn't be taking part. However, the third baseman couldn't upstage the hot stove for long.

With Prince Fielder and Ian Kinsler swapping places, now both the free-agent and trade markets can really take off. That means there are plenty of rumors to debunk as the speculation only grows.

Here's a look at all the latest rumblings from the trade block and the free-agent front with a breakdown of which ones are fact and which ones are fiction.

Note: All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. 

Rumor: Masahiro Tanaka Won't Be Posted This Offseason

Koji Watanabe/Getty Images

As Jon Morosi of Fox Sports explains, Masahiro Tanaka is the best pitcher on the market this offseason. The only problem is that he isn't actually available just yet.

MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball are still trying to come to an agreement on the new posting process. The big holdup is that the leagues have yet to agree on just how much money the NPB clubs should receive from MLB teams.

For now, Tanaka is caught in limbo. As Morosi observes, however, history suggests that the two sides will eventually strike a deal. Back in 2011, the Nippon Ham Fighters didn't post Yu Darvish until December 8. The Texas Rangers didn't reach a final agreement with the hard-throwing right-hander until well into January.

The posting process will drag out for weeks, if not months, but eventually MLB and NPB will make an agreement. Tanaka will be pitching in the big leagues come 2014.

Verdict: Fiction

Rumor: The Fielder for Kinsler Trade Will Be a “Steal” for the Texas Rangers

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

As Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports observes, the logic behind the Detroit Tigers decision to swap Fielder for Kinsler was straightforward. The move could help the Tigers keep impending free agents Max Scherzer and Miguel Cabrera. 

The Tigers certainly saved a large chunk of cash, but at what cost was the goal achieved?

Even though Fielder suffered through a down season in 2013, he was still far more productive than Kinsler was for the Rangers. Check out how their stat lines compare from last season:

• Kinsler: .277/.344/.413, 105 OPS+, 13 home runs
• Fielder: .279/.362/.457, 120 OPS+, 25 home runs

As Rosenthal reports, the Tigers will send $30 million to the Rangers to offset the $168 million that is left on Fielder's contract. So, Texas will be paying Fielder $138 million over seven seasons. As Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports remarks, that's an excellent deal for the Rangers.

The Tigers get their much-coveted payroll flexibility, but they also made their team substantially worse in 2014—at least for now.

The Rangers, meanwhile, got substantially better. Their move for Fielder, who has missed just one game in five seasons, will prove to be a ''steal.”

Verdict: Fact

Rumor: The Toronto Blue Jays Will Finally Move Jose Bautista

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As Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes, “rumors that [Jose] Bautista could be dealt for pitching have persisted for a couple of offseasons.”

This winter would certainly be an ideal time to upgrade the pitching staff, and to revamp the rotation in particular. In 2013, the Toronto Blue Jays' starting staff gave up the second-most runs in all of baseball. Is general manager Alex Anthopoulos finally ready to part with his third baseman to bolster the club's staff?

According to Shi Davidi of SportsNet, such an outcome is unlikely:

"

Some see a Bautista trade as the magic bullet to resolve multiple roster problems in one fell swoop...Sure, a deal is possible, but it's unlikely the Blue Jays can get enough present-day value to justify dealing an elite right-fielder signed to good contract.

"

It's a shrewd observation by Davidi. Dealing Bautista would open up a major hole in Toronto's lineup in 2014. After underachieving so massively last season, the Blue Jays need to win now. If they don't, Anthopoulous' job security should very much be in question. It's hard to see any scenario in which moving Bautista makes the team better in 2014.

Ultimately, Bautista could still get traded, but it won't happen until next offseason at the earliest.

Verdict: Fiction

Rumor: The Cleveland Indians Will Ship out Asdrubal Cabrera This Offseason

Jason Miller/Getty Images

According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, there's a chance that Asdrubal Cabrera could be on the move this offseason:

"

I don't think the [Cleveland] Indians are actively trying to trade Cabrera, but if a team such as the [St. Louis] Cardinals asks about him, they'll listen because that's what GM Chris Antonetti gets paid to do.

"

Hoynes makes it perfectly clear that Cabrera is available in the same sense that any player is available at the right price. However, the mention of the Cardinals and the Indians as potential trade partners is an intriguing idea nonetheless.

The Cardinals have issues at shortstop, and the Indians need young arms like the ones that St. Louis has. However, there is a legitimate question as to just how large of an upgrade Cabrera would represent. The shortstop hit just .242 while posting a .700 OPS in 2013.

The largest reason why Cabrera won't be on the move, though, comes down to money. The 28-year-old's contract runs out at the end of the season, but in 2014 he is still owed $10 million. Such a hefty commitment cancels out any trade value that Cabrera has.

Verdict: Fiction

Rumor: The Boston Red Sox “Serious Dialogue” with Beltran Will Lead to a Deal

Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

As Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald tweets, the Boston Red Sox are definitely interested in Carlos Beltran.

The real question, however, is whether that "serious dialogue" will lead to anything more. Beltran is coming off an impressive regular season, as he hit .296/.339/.491, and an even better postseason performance.

There are at least two major reasons, however, why Beltran and the Red Sox won't agree to a deal. First, the Red Sox will likely balk at the the veteran slugger's demands for a three- to four-year deal, as per Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports.

Second, Beltran is destined to spend an increasingly large amount of time in the designated hitter's role. Sure, David Ortiz is only signed through the 2014 season, but the DH spot should be his for life.

For Beltran, the link to the Red Sox can only help his market value. However, this move isn't happening.

Verdict: Fiction

Rumor: Neither Ellsbury nor Choo Will Land a $100 Million Contract

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Agent Scott Boras is in line for some major disappointments this offseason, as Jorge Castillo of the Star-Ledger writes.

An unnamed New York Mets official told Castillo, “I don't think [Jacoby Ellsbury] or [Shin-Soo Choo] will end up getting $100 million.”

Boras has already suggested that a baseline for Ellsbury's new deal should be Carl Crawford's $142 million pact, while Choo's target should be the $126 million doled out to Jayson Werth. So clearly, somebody must be mistaken.

In the case of Choo, the Mets official is correct. The outfielder posses a rare combination of power, speed and on-base skills. However, the fact that he's absolutely atrocious against lefties (.612 OPS) will severely undercut his value.

The chance that Ellsbury's next deal cracks the $100-million plateau, however, appears far more likely. The 30-year-old's lack of durability counts against him—he missed significant amounts of time during both the 2010 and 2012 campaigns.

However, his Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field, impressive base-stealing record and ability to get on base all play in his favor.

Verdict: Fiction for Ellsbury, Fact for Choo

Rumor: MLB's Case Against Alex Rodriguez Is “100 Percent Personal”

Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images

After Rodriguez stormed out of his grievance hearing in New York, the slugger then went on Mike Francesa's show on WFAN to explain his side of the situation. When Francesa asked Rodriguez why MLB and Selig had given him a 211-game ban, the third baseman remarked:

"

He hates my guts, there's no doubt about it. I don't think they like big salaries. 100 percent it's personal. I think it's about his legacy and it's about my legacy. He's trying to destroy me and, by the way, he's retiring in 2014. And to put me on his big mantle on the way out, that's a helluva trophy.

"

Rodriguez's math is slightly off. The case against him and the subsequent ban he faces were not 100 percent personal. There are also the accusations that he used PEDs chronically, leaked documents in order to smear Ryan Braun and obstructed justice, as CBS Sports notes.

However, Rodriguez is 100 percent right that Selig's legacy factors into the equation.

As Rodriguez comments, the commissioner's term will be up at the end of the 2014 season. As Craig Calcaterra of HardballTalk.com writes, “Selig's legacy is complicated...But on the whole he has been a good commissioner with some bad marks.”

Putting Rodriguez on his mantle would absolutely go a long way in erasing one of Selig's worst marks—the proliferation of PED usage under his watch. There is a nugget of truth in Rodriguez's rant, but if he thinks this situation is anybody's fault but his own, then he's downright delusional.

Verdict: Fiction