When it comes to prospects, minor league statistics tend to be misleading. That’s not to say they hold no value, but eye-popping numbers alone, especially against inferior competition, are anything but a guarantee that a prospect will succeed in the major leagues. More importantly, they offer minimal insight about a player’s long-term projection.
Rather, prospect evaluation is rooted in the intense scrutiny of a player’s development and progress, whether it be a hitter or pitcher, in all facets of the game. In terms of projection, it all comes down to a player’s perceived ceiling or upside, which represents the best and most optimistic outcome. With almost every prospect, there’s a big gap between his present ability and future potential in the major leagues.
To ensure that the focus of this article is on prospects with the highest ceilings, I decided to include players that are yet to reach the major leagues, so please don’t freak out when you don’t see Taijuan Walker or Xander Bogaerts.
Similarly, I avoided highly ranked prospects that comparatively carry less risk, such as Albert Almora, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Oscar Taveras.
Here are my predictions on the boom or bust potential for MLB highest-upside prospects.