Where Jeff Samardzija Ranks Among Top MLB Pitching Trade Candidates
It's looking increasingly likely that Jeff Samardzija won't stick around through the Chicago Cubs' rebuilding, as Chicago Now's Tom Loxas has added the Pittsburgh Pirates to his list of suitors.
Although he's ridiculously talented, Samardzija is not necessarily the best pitcher on the trading block. (Spoiler alert: he definitely isn't.) The Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks, Toronto Blue Jays and Washington Nationals all have interest in him, according to Loxas, but there are a handful of other top-of-the-rotation options on the market.
This article features Cy Young Award winners, Rookie of the Year finalists and world champions, along with the insider rumors that link each of them to new teams.
7. Rick Porcello (Detroit Tigers)
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Not yet 25 years old, this former first-round draft selection already has a substantial track record at the major league level.
Rick Porcello is averaging nearly 30 starts per season since his 2009 debut while consistently performing above replacement level. Poor defense inflates his earned run average; Porcello's fielder independent pitching marks are more accurate reflections of his ability.
The baby-faced right-hander didn't demonstrate much swing-and-miss ability until this past summer, when he finished with a career-high 7.2 K/9. Varying his usage of breaking balls to include more curveballs is largely responsible for the improvement.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports learned from other teams' executives that the Detroit Tigers would consider parting ways with Porcello for the right offer. Fox Sports insider Jon Morosi validates that rumor by tweeting that general manager Dave Dombrowski intends to vacate a rotation spot for Drew Smyly.
Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors projects Porcello to settle for $7.7 million in arbitration this coming winter (h/t Tim Dierkes).
6. Lance Lynn (St. Louis Cardinals)
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Lance Lynn rededicated himself to physical fitness last offseason, and the weight loss helped him finish the 2013 regular season with a flourish. The 26-year-old posted a 1.09 earned run average over his final four starts to earn a spot in the St. Louis Cardinals' playoff rotation.
Although Lynn's October wasn't particularly memorable, the fact that he threw 219 total innings ought to be commended. Rick Porcello, by comparison, has never come close to the 200-inning milestone.
Not yet eligible for arbitration, Lynn will earn close to the league minimum in 2014. Matching last year's workload is far from a guarantee, but with more than a strikeout per inning through three MLB seasons, he's assured to bolster any starting rotation.
Former CBS Sports insider Danny Knobler reported that Lance Lynn could be "the odd man out" on the over-stuffed Cardinals pitching staff. Then, Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wondered whether he would leave town in a trade that returns an experienced shortstop.
5. Shelby Miller (St. Louis Cardinals)
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Shelby Miller's name came up in the aforementioned article by Joe Strauss about changes that the St. Louis Cardinals would consider this winter.
The highly touted right-hander was an NL Rookie of the Year front-runner before running out of steam after the All-Star break. Miller still finished with an impressive 3.06 earned run average and 2.96 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He rivals Lance Lynn in terms of fastball velocity but surpasses him in value thanks to superior command and a later birth date.
St. Louis was approached by the Baltimore Orioles, according to Jon Heyman, about a trade revolving around Miller and veteran shortstop J.J. Hardy. The Cardinals quickly cut off that conversation.
Hardy was an American League All-Star, Silver Slugger and Gold Glove winner in 2013, but the reigning NL champs were probably deterred by the fact that there's only one year remaining on his contract. Miller isn't going anywhere unless the Cards receive controllable players in return.
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4. John Lackey (Boston Red Sox)
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Right off the bat, let's be clear that John Lackey is the pitcher on this list who's least likely to change uniforms.
Youth gets overvalued on the trade market, so conversely, the Boston Red Sox wouldn't receive fair compensation for the 35-year-old Lackey. Moreover, his Tommy John surgery triggered a 2015 vesting option that limits his 2015 salary to $500,000.
Why would the Red Sox step away from that financially friendly situation?
"Some would say there’s no better time to deal John Lackey than right now," writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The veteran right-hander got into great shape following his elbow operation, posted a career-best strikeout-to-walk ratio and on-base percentage against, and won the World Series-clinching Game 6.
ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes tweets that the Red Sox have been "gauging clubs' interest" in Lackey. Even if the return isn't enormous, they would be satisfied clearing room for popular free agent Tim Hudson or a promising pitching prospect like Allen Webster.
3. Jeff Samardzija (Chicago Cubs)
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The rebuilding Chicago Cubs have been trying to convince Jeff Samardzija to sign a long-term contract extension since he emerged as an effective starter. At this point, however, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times notes that that "looks like a long shot."
General manager Jed Hoyer downplays the distraction of the recent trade rumors, but he doesn't refute reports of his availability, as Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago reported:
"I think teams will certainly inquire about him. He’s really proved over the last two years he has great stuff and is a tough competitor. I think teams will ask us about him so to that extent there could be rumors. I think Jeff has a perfect mentality for that. I think he doesn’t pay attention to it. It’s somewhat the nature of being in a big market.
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Samardzija is in line for a significant pay raise after banking only $2.64 million last season. He's arbitration-eligible for the second time coming off a campaign in which he ranked within the National League's top five in both innings pitched and strikeouts. Even so, he'll fit within the restrictions of most contenders' payrolls.
Because he's about to turn 29, it's fair to question whether Samardzija will get any better than he is right now.
But let's not get hypercritical. Put this well-groomed right-hander in front of a decent defense, and he'll perform like a legitimate No. 2 rotation option, which is more than can be said about the others we've analyzed thus far.
2. Max Scherzer (Detroit Tigers)
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Trades involving reigning Cy Young Award winners aren't common.
Of course, one of them happened just a year ago. The New York Mets moved knuckleballer R.A. Dickey at peak value.
Max Scherzer just earned the American League hardware, and Jon Heyman acknowledges that the Detroit Tigers might follow in their footsteps. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports hand-picked the Washington Nationals as a potential suitor.
The Tigers already have Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez and Prince Fielder inked to lengthy, lucrative contracts. Extending Scherzer as well might deny them the financial flexibility to lock up AL MVP Miguel Cabrera.
Besides, it's unlikely that agent Scott Boras would even let Scherzer take a deal that denies him the free-agent experience. Speaking on Detroit Sports 105.1, Boras said he wouldn't initiate negotiations with the Tigers (h/t Josh Slagter, MLive.com).
Scherzer's MLB-best 21 wins in 2013 leap off the stat sheet, but more importantly, he maintained a 0.97 WHIP in 214.1 IP and continued performing well in the playoffs.
He has averaged 198 innings per season since the Tigers acquired him in December 2009. That's durability that other trade candidates cannot provide.
1. David Price (Tampa Bay Rays)
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David Price claims the top spot above Max Scherzer by the slimmest of margins.
He's more than one year younger than Scherzer, and in a near-identical amount of MLB experience, he boasts a slightly better adjusted earned run average. The team acquiring Price would also have control of him through 2015.
A triceps injury interrupted his latest campaign, but an AL-best 1.30 BB/9 showed that he continues to refine his mechanics.
Price is well aware of how the small-market Tampa Bay Rays operate, Tampa Bay Times staff writer Marc Topkin reports:
"If you go with what's been done in the past, I guess you're going to have to think you're going to get traded. That's kind of the way it's happened with this organization when pitchers kind of get to this period in their career. We've seen it happen a couple of times already. I don't know what's going to happen, but I know what's happened in the past.
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It's no longer a question of if he'll get dealt. ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that interested teams just want to know if Price is open to a contract extension before they submit their best offers.
Rest assured, there's going to be premium young talent headed to the Trop in exchange for the only elite southpaw on the market.
Ely is a national MLB Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report and a sportscaster for 90.5 WVUM in Miami. He wants to make sweet, social love with all of you on Twitter.
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