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6 Biggest No-Brainers on the 2014 MLB Free-Agent Market

Joe GiglioNov 15, 2013

The Major League Baseball free-agent market isn't ripe with young, ascending players that are guaranteed to give their next employer great production for the duration of a contract. Instead, the list of 2014 MLB free agents is littered with question marks. 

Cost concerns surround the best and most dominant stars. Durability clouds the future of past greats. Age and longevity factor in when signing a veteran to a free-agent deal. Despite all the positive scouting reports or medical records done by front office members around baseball, no free agent comes without reservation.

Yet, some are less risky than others. When assessing this particular class of game-changing players, six standout as no-brainers. In relation to their free-agent peers, the following players should provide a level of comfort to the general manager that affords them a chunk of the franchise's budget. That's not to say that injury or a slip in performance won't occur, but it's not as big of a concern with these players as some of the others on the market.

Without further ado, the six players that are the biggest no-brainers on the free-agent market.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.

1. Robinson Cano, 2B

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Yes, I know the history of long-term contracts. Yes, affording $200 million, or more, to any player over the age of 30 is risky. Yes, second basemen don't age well.

Now that the fretting is over, let's talk about some other narratives that should be accompanying Robinson Cano's first trip into the free-agent world. Since the 31-year-old second baseman debuted in New York in 2005, few players in the sport have played at a level of consistent excellence like him.

According to Baseball-Reference, Cano ranks in the top 10 in all of baseball in WAR (45.1), games played (1374), doubles (375) and runs scored (799) since 2005.

When looking at the numbers since 2011, Cano's final three seasons prior to free agency, he becomes even more impressive. The current free agent ranks second in WAR, just slightly below Miguel Cabrera. He's second in hits, sixth in runs scored, first in doubles, fourth in runs batted in and eighth in OPS.

There's a reason that Cano is the No. 1 free agent on the market. He's one of the best players in the sport, raking at a position not known for offensive muscle and poised to continue hitting for years to come. Lucrative, long-term deals are risky, but Cano could easily justify a large pact by hitting at an elite level for the next five or six seasons.

2. Shin-Soo Choo, OF

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If Shin-Soo Choo's game was reliant on speed, athleticism, defense or power, he'd be one of the biggest risks on the free-agent market. At the age of 31, all of those skills will deteriorate over the life of a long-term deal that could be for well over $100 million, per ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.

Yet, Choo is on this list because of a skill that won't wain over the years. In fact, it could become more prolific as the outfielder garners more plate appearances and becomes an even more accomplished hitter in the box. Since arriving to the big leagues with the Seattle Mariners in 2005, Choo has showed an outstanding ability to reach base.

Since becoming a full-time player in 2009, Choo ranks fifth in all of baseball (Baseball-Reference PI subscription required) with a .392 on-base percentage, including a .423 mark in 2013. The only players ahead of Choo on the list of on-base machines: Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Joe Mauer.

If a team is looking for an outfielder that will reach base better than any of his peers, Choo is the guy to sign. Over the next five or six seasons, his skills will deteriorate, but the ability to get on base will continue throughout his career.

3. Mike Napoli, 1B

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One year ago, Mike Napoli was a poor defensive catcher with hip issues clouding his future as an everyday player. Sure, he had immense power and showed the ability to dominate in October during postseason runs with the Texas Rangers, but anything other than a short-term deal seemed silly for the right-handed hitter.

After hitting a contract snag with the Boston Red Sox, Napoli signed a one-year deal to become a first baseman in Boston. Now, after staying healthy, crushing the ball, playing an excellent first base, per Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston, and helping the Red Sox to a World Series victory, the 32-year-old slugger should be on the radar for any power-hungry lineup in baseball.

Since the start of the 2008 season, only 12 hitters have posted a slugging percentage of at least .513 while hitting at least 140 home runs. Napoli is one of them. He's also, along with Nelson Cruz, one of two that are currently available to the highest bidder.

When there is consistent power, teams will notice. When injury concerns are offset by a healthy year, agents will make sure teams notice. When a combination presents itself on the open market, a no-brainer emerges.

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4. Hiroki Kuroda, SP

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Hiroki Kuroda might be the most well-understood commodity on the open market. Since arriving from Japan prior to the 2008 season, the now 38-year-old right-hander has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the sport.

In every year of his major league career, Kuroda has started at least 20 games, pitched to an ERA under 3.76 and allowed fewer than 9.0 H/9. When general managers search for durable starting pitching this winter, the first call should be to Kuroda's agent.

While he's rarely heralded as one of the best pitchers in the sport, the complete list of pitchers to toss over 1,100 innings with an ERA of 3.40 or better since 2008 looks like this: Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, Jered Weaver, Matt Cain, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum and Kuroda.

Combined, the other 11 names on that list have signed eight contracts in excess of $100 million and captured nine Cy Young awards. Of course, none of those riches have come Kuroda's way.

What he lacks in sizzle, he makes up for in consistent excellence. On a one-year contract, Kuroda could once again turn out to be one of the best investments in baseball.

5. Jhonny Peralta, SS

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Jhonny Peralta is rarely mentioned when media members and fans talk about the best offensive shortstops in baseball. After looking at the numbers, it's time to change that.

Since the start of the 2011 season, only five shortstops in baseball have posted a total WAR of at least 8.0 and hit 40-plus home runs. Those names: Troy Tulowitzki, J.J. Hardy, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ian Desmond and Peralta.

Outside of Tulowitzki's greatness and the young, ascending stardom of Desmond in Washington, you can make a case for Peralta providing the best combination of total value and power of any shortstop in the sport.

While the cloud of a performance-enhancing drug suspension could curtail Peralta's earning potential in the free-agent market, it shouldn't take away from what he's been over the course of his career. On a two- or three-year deal, the 31-year-old shortstop is poised to add punch and value to any lineup in baseball.

Joe Nathan, RP

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Joe Nathan isn't just a good closer, he's one of the best in the history of baseball.

Consider this: Among relievers with at least 300 career saves, Nathan's adjusted ERA (158+) is tied for third in the history of baseball, behind only Mariano Rivera (205+) and Billy Wagner (187+). After a dominant season in Texas, the soon-to-be 39-year-old opted out of his contract, per Anthony Andro of Fox Sports Southwest, to explore free agency, probably for the last time.

Any team in need of bullpen help should be on the phone with Nathan's agents right now, offering a two-year contract in excess of $16 million. Why? The former dominant Twins closer may be a better pitcher now than he was during his great run in Minnesota from 2004-2009.

During those six years as Minnesota's closer, Nathan pitched to a 237 ERA+ and posted a SO/BB rate of 4.32 for Ron Gardenhire's bullpen. During his last two seasons in Texas, Nathan, at the ages of 37 and 38, pitched to an ERA of 2.09 and posted a SO/BB rate of 4.31.

Until now, it was hard to imagine anyone creeping close to Rivera and Wagner atop the list of great closers, but if Nathan can continue his run of success, the spot behind Rivera could belong to him within a few seasons.

Agree? Disagree? Which free agent will turn out to be the best signing of the winter?

Comment below, follow me on Twitter or "like" my Facebook page to talk all things baseball.

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