Jonathan Moore/Getty Images
2013 Team: Toronto Blue Jays
2013 Salary: $13.75 million
2013 Stats: 16 GS, 2-8, 6.20 ERA, 1.66 WHIP
Why He's a Risk
Josh Johnson was once one of the best pitchers in the game, but he's been declining over the past two seasons.
After dominating in 2011, Johnson's season was cut short by injury and he failed to come back as strong as he was. He struggled a bit with the Miami Marlins in 2012 before completely falling apart in 2013.
The Blue Jays lost 12 of Johnson's 16 starts this year, and his production when he was actually on the mound was terrible.
Johnson has also been dealing with injury troubles since 2011. He was on the DL for an extended amount of time in 2011 with a shoulder injury, and his season was over after his start on May 16. This year was even worse for him, as he missed the entire month of May and his season was over on Aug. 6.
Signing Johnson at this point is signing damaged goods. It's unclear whether or not he'll come back and be anything close to the pitcher he was in 2010 (2.30 ERA), but it appears to be unlikely.
Why He Might Be Worth It
Despite all the things that have gone wrong for Johnson in the past three years, there's still the chance that he can return to form over the next couple of years.
Johnson will have had roughly eight months to rest and recover. That's enough time for him to get things back on track, and it's possible that he returns to form relatively soon.
His struggles were also exacerbated by his move to the AL. Johnson was much better in the NL, which is much less offensively-oriented than the AL (eight of the top nine offenses in MLB were AL teams). Perhaps if Johnson returns to the NL in a pitcher-friendly park, he could become a middle-of-the-rotation starter.
Johnson is also going to be very cheap to sign this offseason. He's high-risk, high-reward, and it could certainly be worth a few million dollars to take a chance on him.