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Indianapolis Colts vs San Diego Chargers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

INDIANAPOLIS - NOVEMBER 28:  Philip Rivers #17 of the San Diego Chargers throws a pass during the NFL game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 28, 2010 in Indianapolis, Indiana.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Andy Lyons/Getty Images
OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistOctober 9, 2013

San Diego is one of the few teams to dominate Indianapolis over the years and they will try to use that magic to knock off the Colts in Week 6 Monday Night Football betting action. However, the road team often wins in this matchup and the Colts boast a hot MNF trend.

 

Point spread

Chargers opened as 3-point favorites; the total was 46. (Line updates and Matchup report)

 

Computer Prediction

32.9-21.1 Colts (the road team is 16-8 SU in 24 meetings of these teams since 1980)

 

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Don't look now, but the Colts (4-1) are back on top of the AFC South. After winning seven of the first nine division titles, Indianapolis has taken sole possession of the division lead for the first time in the post-Peyton Manning era.

The Colts are one of four NFL teams with a perfect road record and they are 8-1 ATS in their past nine matches under the Monday Night Football spotlight.

 

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

San Diego was in a bad spot last week in Oakland, being forced into a late time change thanks to a stadium overhaul that accommodated the MLB Playoffs the night before. The Chargers are better than what we saw and are averaging 29 points per home game.

This one is on national TV and they own a 6-1 ATS run against the Colts. Expect them to show up and battle.

 

Smart Pick

The side is a toss-up here, as you can argue either side. But Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck is looking more and more like a quarterback of the future, and Chargers running back Danny Woodhead has balanced things nicely to lead the Bolts' offense. This one has the makings of an over.

 

Trends

Colts 1-6 ATS past 7 games vs San Diego

Indianapolis 8-1 ATS past 9 Monday Night Football games

 

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark.

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