The Draft, Rookie Salaries, and Inequality in the NFL

“With the first pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select...INSIGNIFICANCE!!!”

Now, before people reading this article become upset that I am calling Matthew Stafford a bust, follow the logic.  It is not Stafford personally that I am calling out, nor is this a shot at the Detroit Lions. 

It is all about the amount of money that Stafford is going to receive simply for being selected number one.  That is a major problem that the NFL must correct.

Let’s first be clear about one thing. 

Among the four major team sports in North America, professional football has perhaps the shortest “life expectancy” among its players.  Former MVP Shaun Alexander is essentially “washed-up” now at age 31, still an unsigned free agent. 

But also remember that he was cut by Seattle when he was 30, and only picked up by the Redskins after their backup, not their starter, went down!

While baseball, hockey, and even basketball have players in their late-30s and early 40s, it is rare in football, especially at so-called “skill” positions.  The major exception to this are kickers in their 40s, as well as an occasional quarterback.

So due to short utility, it is understandable that football players need a lot of money.  And this is not a “oh, they make too much money” jealousy rant. Your labor and skill is a “commodity” and if that commodity has a high demand, as professional football has in the United States, then top dollar is paid to those with the best skill.  So more power to them.

The problem is this simply fact—Matthew Stafford will make more money than Tom Brady!  Stafford has yet to throw a pass even in an exhibition NFL game and he will earn more than a three-time Super Bowl winner and two-time MVP???

But that is not even the greatest concern here.  What the outrageous rookie salaries translates to is a potential trap for teams with high first round draft picks.

Teams that have high draft picks in the first round must put so much money into an unproven commodity that if that commodity goes belly up, then the team is once again back to square one.  Let’s analyze!

Over the past 20 years, 12 quarterbacks have been taken with the first overall pick (60 percent of the time); eight of those coming in the last 10 years.

Of those 12, four have guided their team to the Super Bowl (Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe, and Hall of Famer Troy Aikman) and two others have had some success statistically—Jeff George and Carson Palmer.  I do not include Michael Vick here because his quarterback numbers are unimpressive.

Three of the remaining five quarterbacks taken first overall since 1989 have been utter failures—Tim Couch, David Carr and Alex Smith. The jury is still out on JaMarcus Russell, although it is not looking good. And Matthew Stafford obviously has yet to play.

What this means is that there is roughly a 50 percent chance that a QB taken number one overall will actually pan out. To be fair, the last two QBs taken at that spot do not have enough to go on (or anything at all), so let’s remove the two most recent and the two “oldest.”

Still, 50 percent. If you want to look at the last 10 years, and still remove Russell and Stafford, then the success rate is less than 50 percent because you also take out Peyton Manning.