Pros and Cons of the Packers Giving Up Their 1st-Rounder for More Picks
Last week, when we took a look at the recent mock draft selections for the Packers, one thing became clear to me.
Fans are all about trading that No. 26 pick.
Ted Thompson will almost definitely have the opportunity.
Let's look at the facts—we know that Geno Smith and Matt Barkley look like very possible top-10-15 picks. We know there are numerous teams in that area that have a need at quarterback, but also many needs otherwise (I'm looking at you, Arizona).
While we're unsure whether anyone sees someone beyond those two as early first-rounders, we know that teams have an interest in Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson and possibly E.J. Manuel or Mike Glennon as Day 2 guys.
More than any other year I can recall, this one is chock full of what I call "P.O.V. quarterbacks." What that means is, you may love one guy, but someone else will see him as a waste of a pick.
It all depends on your point of view.
The thing is, you just don't know. Some team may also love him and be willing to poach him before he gets back to you.
So I fully expect that at the end of the first round, you'll see teams looking to jump back into the mix so they can guarantee that they get "their" guy before someone else does.
And once one team jumps back into the water, others could follow.
Is it a good idea for the Packers to trade out, though?
Here are some pros and cons to a move out of the first round by the Packers during the 2013 draft.
PRO: You can't have too many draft picks
At some point, they're only worth something if you use them, but the Packers can only benefit from acquiring more picks.
We'll mention this multiple times in this piece, but while the "skill" positions aren't top-heavy with "elite" players, there is plenty of very good depth at multiple positions. Acquiring more picks for this year will allow the Pack to take advantage of that depth.
CON: You only have one shot at the top tier
Picks are nice, but you only have one opportunity to grab the best talent. Trading out of the first limits your shot at those players.
While there is very good depth, the drops at the biggest positions of need—the front seven and the offensive line—are pretty steep.
Not to say there aren't good players later than the first—just that, in some cases, the first-round players could be great.
And lest we forget, for all the picks a team like the New England Patriots acquire, they haven't been using them all that well. The Pats do a great job of getting picks but are proof positive that those picks don't guarantee great players.
PRO: End of the first round isn't much different than the early second
By trading into the first, a team is more than likely handing the Packers a second-round pick, certainly an earlier one than the Pack have.
Which also means they have a shot at a high-quality, borderline first-rounder. Really, first-round talent can always be found in the early second round, and with a second-round pick in the first 10-15 selections, a team isn't really going to see that much of a dramatic shift down in the overall quality of player talent.
Joe Robbins/Getty Images
Sure, they will probably miss out on a high-end offensive tackle, but there's an excellent chance that happens anyway even if they stay put. The same goes for offensive guards and defensive ends and tackles.
Right now, we expect a heavy early run on those positions anyway.
So rather than take a player with question marks earlier, the Packers can move back a bit and get a very good player at any number of positions—one who is pretty close in quality to the guy they'd have to settle for in the first—and end up with an extra pick or two.
Con: Packers run the risk of missing a player they do want
While they may have a wider selection of players of equal quality in the early second, the Packers can still miss out on the guys they want. Remember, the San Francisco 49ers are lurking at No. 35 overall, while the Bengals sit at No. 37.
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Some of this depends on who would be willing to trade up, but if the Packers like a guy, they shouldn't wait and risk missing him. Even if it seems early, they should pull the trigger.
Remember, there is no such thing as a reach. If you like a guy, go get that guy. Don't risk losing him.
To me, there is almost no question the Packers should take a trade backwards—almost no matter how far back into the second they go.
Yes, they can miss out on players, but there will be a ton of value in the second round if they can acquire a second pick during it.
If they don't, it means they will get multiple picks either for this year or next.
Should the Packers actively try to trade back or wait and see who offers?
In the second round, there are multiple wide receivers, running backs, offensive linemen and defensive players who are very good and would give the Packers an excellent return on their investment.
Of course, this is all just speculation. We could see an early quarterback run wipe out the chances someone will want to trade up. The Packers could see a player drop to them that they just cannot ignore. Or maybe they won't get a good offer.
However, if they have the chance to trade the No. 26 pick—especially if they can get another pick in the second round—the value is going to be hard to beat.
I fully expect the Packers to have the opportunity to trade out of the first round, and if that's the case, they should jump at it.
What are your thoughts? What should stop them from moving back? Is there a player you think they cannot let go by? Is there a position which is such a high priority that the team can't possibly move away from it and trade?
Let me know in the comments below.
Special thanks to commenter (commentater?) Red Shirt for the idea for this piece.
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