NFL Draft 2013: Breaking Down Draft's Most Overrated Prospects
Every year there are NFL draft prospects that go off the board early only to fail miserably in the pros. Some of them are controversial picks, not especially highly regarded by most draftniks. Think Tyson Jackson, the Chiefs' 2009 draft pick who went No. 3 overall. Then there are others, well-regarded by all, who don't cut it. Think Glenn Dorsey, the Chiefs' No. 5 overall pick from 2008.
Whether there is controversy attached to them or not, these players stand out because they are just not worthy of the massive hype they have generated. These top prospects are overrated, and while that's no guarantee of busting, teams better do their research on these players.
Damontre Moore, DE Texas A&M
The highly-touted Damontre Moore is a top-five player on multiple big boards. Rob Rang of CBSsports.com has him ranked fifth, and he is ranked fourth on Chris Burke's board for Sports Illustrated. The pass-rusher has earned near universal acclaim for his athleticism and playmaking ability.
I don't even consider Moore a first-round pick.
When I watch Moore's film, I see a raw athlete who struggles to shed blocks when rushing the passer and too often finds himself on the ground or washed out of the play in run defense. Moore's hand use is practically non-existent, as he relies almost exclusively on his athleticism to make plays.
In the NFL, teams should love running straight at Moore. NFL-level tackles will be able to combat his athleticism and overwhelm him with superior strength. At this point, Moore is little more than a situational pass-rusher with athletic upside.
Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB LSU
Barkevious Mingo has not received the universal acclaim that Moore has, but he remains a likely first-round pick. Like Moore, though, I do not consider Mingo a legitimate first-round talent, as he is too limited as a prospect to be a consistent performer.
In fact, Mingo shares a lot of similarities with Moore. For one, both have a tendency to end up on the ground due to a lack of base strength. Furthermore, both struggle to shed blocks once they've been engaged.
On the plus side, Mingo has displayed a better sense of proper positioning, and he's also displayed a spin move that could be effective in the NFL.
That having been said, Mingo is just 240 pounds. At that weight, Mingo will be unable to be an every-down player in the NFL, so he will need to gain significant size and strength to be a solid NFL starter.
All in all, Mingo reminds me too much of Jarvis Moss, a first-round bust from Florida, to be worthy of a first-round selection, but his upside will be too enticing for some teams to reject.
Alec Ogletree, LB Georgia
Ogletree is another prospect who is highly regarded but whose tape is extremely disappointing. The inside linebacker is too easily blocked to excel as an NFL linebacker.
In Ogletree's defense, he is a former safety with elite athleticism. His coverage skills are generally excellent, both in zone and in man. He is also a sound tackler who wraps up well in the open field. Ogletree will have a clear niche in the NFL.
Despite that ability, Ogletree will struggle badly in the running game. He is just 234 pounds, and he plays like it when he is being blocked by 300-pound offensive linemen. As soon as he is engaged, Ogletree is completely neutralized and is likely to get pushed back.
Inside linebacker is not a position that often generates first-round discussion. Any linebacker to go in the first round must be an impact player who can blitz, play the run and cover well. He should be able to play on every down, and Ogletree is just not that player.
While Ogletree would excel as a nickel linebacker both in blitzing and in coverage, he is too limited in his run defense to be a legitimate first-round pick.
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