While we have good reason to speculate that the Chiefs will do this, whether or not Smith is worth a No. 1 pick is up for debate. Thus we can begin the process of calling the wisdom of the decision into question.
The Chiefs' Options
The reality that Kansas City faces is that they are without any viable quarterback option aside from Brady Quinn, if you were to even consider him a suitable No. 1 signal-caller.
The added pressure of being one of the worst teams in the league and having to think about filling seats and keeping a tired fanbase interested, means that Smith, mistake or not, is the exact type of choice that Kansas City is likely to make.
But is it a good choice? It might not be, but it might be the Chiefs' only real option.
Unless the Chiefs are lucky enough to wrestle Joe Flacco away from Baltimore (and I see no reason why Flacco would want to comply), there is literally no one promising in the 2013 free agent pool. Maybe Tarvaris Jackson, but that's a stretch if you're looking for a significant improvement oven Quinn, who by the way will also be in that pool.
That leaves Kansas City with very little to work with in terms of free agency, creating even more of a need for them to use their No. 1 draft pick on Smith.
Should the Chiefs draft Geno Smith?
There are plenty of other teams in desperate need of a viable quarterback. Thus, trading down to a pick anywhere from No. 5 to No. 10 could be a smart move for them if they're willing to settle for Matt Barkley or Mike Glennon. Again, whether or not those players are worth the high pick is debatable, but it's looking to be either that, or serve up another year of Matt Cassel to the Kansas City fanbase.
The Chiefs could deal with their problem in one of two ways. They could build up their defense, and other areas of their team that need work (they could probably close their eyes and pick one if they omit their decent running game), and develop a quarterback over time, or they could draft a hotshot and build around him now.
In truth the former is the smarter, though less "fan popular" decision. At this point the Chiefs are almost certain to go with a more fan-friendly decision, if for nothing else, to keep seats filled.
There's no question about it; Smith will fill seats, but it could be a temporary patch that will need dealt with again in a few short years.
Time will tell.